Friday, December 08, 2006

Big Z to get Big $$$$

Here's the post on

Time To Think About Carlos Zambrano
By waiting until after the season to work out an extension for third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs probably cost themselves millions of dollars. Luckily, they still got him for less than the going rate in the end.
Surely Jim Hendry and Co. are wary of a similar scenario occurring with staff ace
Carlos Zambrano. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes:
"Talks have yet to begin on Zambrano's extension, and probably won't get serious until the start of spring training if the past is any indication."
While some feel that Zambrano's price rose to over $100 million because of recent free agent signings, I would counter that it was $100 million all along. Compare Zambrano to
Barry Zito as the Tribune did.
1. Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.2. Zito has six straight seasons of 200+ innings; Zambrano has four.3. In their careers, Zambrano has been tougher to hit, better at home run prevention, and has a significantly better strikeout rate.4. In peripheral stats, Zito's only advantage is mildly better control.
Say for the sake of argument that Zito gets six years, $100MM. In my mind that makes Zambrano in line for at least a seven year, $130MM deal. That would be $18.5MM annually.
Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald even suggests Zambrano could be a $20MM player.
Perhaps the Cubs should move to sign Zambrano before Zito signs, as Zito's contract could be a point of reference for agent Barry Praver. At least Jim Hendry can be relieved that Zambrano fired Scott Boras at the beginning of this year.

I truly think Jim will get a deal done with Zambrano before seasons start... I do think this because he wont make the same mistake he did with Aram this year, if in fact he waits till seasons end that could blow up in his face almost like the Aram situation... Lets say Zambrano wins 15 to 20 games next year, which he will.. his asking price will go upward even more than it was before the season started.. He will be more affordable now than later.. i say give him a 6 year with an option for a 7th... a full no trade clause for the first 5 years... give him alot of incentives( cy young, lead leagues in wins, era, strikeouts etc, mvp, etc). With all incentives the price tag should be 7 years and to make a possiable 130 million... about 17.5 to 18.5 mill a year.. Thats an extremely fair deal considering Clemens got 22 mill for 2/3 the season.. It would be a huge blow to loose him and you know everyone want him and if he did hit the market it would go beyond 18 mill a year!!!

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