Thursday, June 13, 2013

Trade Deadline : Should I Stay or Should I Go?

So we are getting closer and closer to trade season which means it is time for my list of players that I think will get traded at the deadline.

1.     Alfonso Soriano:  The Cubs have a lot of outfielders on the current ML roster and in the minor leagues so trading Soriano makes sense.  The thing that hurts his trade value is his NTC, production, and contract but that will not prevent Theo and Co. to pull the trigger on a deal.  I expect Soriano to be traded as a part of a package unless he starts heating up then he could get traded on this own.  I honestly think the front office is ready to move on and Soriano is the one big blip (besides Marmol) from the Hendry Era.
2.     Matt Garza:  I have been on both corners of the Garza debate on whether to keep him or trade him but I think trading him makes the most sense right now given the weak pitching market.  Garza is probably the Cubs biggest trading chip and if you pair him with a reliever or position player then there is no reason you can get a nice package of prospects.  As we speak the Rangers and Giants both have serious interest in acquiring pitching and it is still early.
3.     Scott Feldman:  Maybe the first player to be traded to maintain his trade value and he could fetch a top 150 prospect right now by himself.  I believe the Cubs will also pair Feldman with a position player like a David DeJesus to get a top 100 prospect and a mid-level minor leaguer.  The Cubs can afford to trade Feldman because they have proved they can pick him his type of talent on the FA market for a steal.
4.     David DeJesus:  He will be traded and likely will be a part of a package to maximize return.  With the amount of outfielders and David being in the last year of his deal it just makes sense to trade the veteran.  A playoff team always could use a David DeJesus type so expect him to garner a lot of interest.
5.     Kevin Gregg:  I think Gregg is also gone at the deadline because he has proven he can set-up and close games on a team that has struggled with their bullpen.  Also obtaining relievers during the deadline is a tricky thing so his value might be through the roof.
6.     Carlos Marmol:  The Cubs may decide to wait until the waiver period in the hopes of a team losing a reliever to injury and someone claiming him.  But that won’t say they will try to dump him at the deadline.  Honestly I do think just like Soriano the Cubs are going to cut their ties with the remaining Hendry Era players on the current roster.  Marmol could net a bag of balls or PTBNL.
7.     Cody Ransom or Luis Valbuena:  It  will be Ransom or Valbuena that is traded at the deadline or during the waiver period.  The Cubs currently have Junior Lake in AAA Iowa tearing it up and Josh Vitters as well (although he is not as attractive).  Ransom to me seems like the likely fit given his age, contract, and he does not fit in the Cubs plans for the future.  Although Valbuena has a higher trade value because of he is younger; he may mean more to the Cubs than his trade value would suggest.
8.     Brett Jackson:  I think the 24 year old outfielder’ who was a top 40 prospect in 2012 is traded; once again a apart of a bigger package.  A team is going to see value in BJax regardless of numbers and putting him with another player or two could fetch and impact prospect or more.  Brett Jackson just does not fit the mold of what the Cubs want to do which is why I think they drafted two potential impact CF the past two drafts and are carrying guys on the 25 man roster like Borbon. He also could be described as a failed Hendry prospect so they could follow what they did with Soriano and Marmol.
9.     Josh Vitters: Again with Lake emerging, upside with Vitters, and the possibility of adding him along with other tradable players means the Cubs could yet again obtain top prospect talent.  Just like Jackson he does not really fit the mold of a Theo type prospect which could be a sign of him being dealt.

Guys they will keep but could be viewed as tradable-

1.     Nate Schierholtz: I think the Cubs really like what he brings to the table not only at the plate but in the outfield.  His value to the team at his cost far exceeds his trade value.  Nate may not be a starter next year depending on moves but he would be just as valuable as a bench player never less,  If Schierholtz is the Cubs starting RF in 2014 I will have no problem with it.
2.     Scott Hairston:  Right handed power bats off the bench are hard to come by and if the Cubs trade DeJesus and Soriano then they are likely to hold onto Hairston and Schierholtz.  Hairston has another year on his deal.
3.     Dioner Navarro:  I just do not see a team out there trading for Navarro and I think the Cubs have their backup catcher for the rest of this year and maybe next.
4.     James Russell:  The lefty is needed in the Cubs pen and if they end up trading both Marmol and Gregg they need some kind of staple in the pen.  That is Russell.
5.     Carlos Villanueva: With the Cubs dealing both Feldman and Garza; CarVill should move back into the starting role for the rest of the season.  He also is really cheap for the rest of this season and next but his value to the Cubs is greater than his value to another team.
6.     Darwin Barney:  He is cost controlled, defense is hard to replace, and no reason to sell low for the Cubs.
7.     Edwin Jackson:  Makes too much money and Theo is not going to give up on his investment that early.
8.     Travis Wood:  Maybe the best pitcher on the team and unless they are blow away by an offer he is going to stay.
9.     Starlin Castro: COME ON NO CHANCE!  Don’t even say it.

Until Next Time…