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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Other Picks
Pick 41: A lot hinges on the Cubs first overall pick her so they could go a variety of routes but here are three players I chose to highlight.
Kyle Serrano: He is going to be a tough sign because he has already committed to play for his Dad at Tenn. but his risk could be worth the reward. His fastball is advanced at 92-94 MPH, has good command with his change-up and breaking pitches, and is rather advanced for a high school pitcher. The best praise for Serrano by a scout is he is a pitcher, he knows how to pitch and think beyond his years as a pitcher. He has the upside as a potential #2 pitcher but floor of a bottom of the rotation starter.
Eric Jagielo: A 3rd baseman/Outfielder with good power potential. If the Cubs draft Bryant they will not draft Jagielo. His power is there and many scouts think he could remain at 3rd base but he is unusual because some mock draft has him going in the first 20 picks while others have him going in the early 50s. He is a guy if available at 41 the Cubs should take him.
Matt Krook: Another pitcher but this lefty can hit 94 on the radar gun! He has very high upside and an above average curveball. He has some work but what 18 year old high school player doesn't. Being 6-foot-4 and only 195 lbs he has room to grow but many argue he maybe the best high school lefty in the draft as far as potential.
Result: I would like the Cubs to take any of the three if they are available but Matt Krook and Kyer Serrano intrigue me the most.
Pick 75: This is really hit or miss as far as picks go but there is plenty of talent left to pick from in this range.
Cavan Biggo: Son of baseball great Craig Biggo has a good bat but other tools need to develop to be an everyday big leaguer. His ceiling is at best .285 with a .350 OBP but his floor is a utility player. He also does not really have a position but work ethic could replace that.
Chris Okey: The guy could be the best defensive catcher in the draft and I love defensive catchers. He also has great versatility and has the athleticism to play the infield and outfield. Okey is more of a Biggo type than Cavan for that matter which intrigues me even more. The other good thing about Okey is he can handle the bat according to scouts so he has more than defense and versatility.
Dillon Overton: Once drafted by Theo and company in the 26th round of the 2012 draft he could be a target for the 3rd round for them this go around. Overton is a left-handed pitcher who has filled out quite well. His fastball is in the low to mid 90s and has a good strong delivery according to scouts. His strike out rate over the past couple of years has been around 9 K/9. He is rather polished so making it to the majors fast is not out of the question.
Result: I think if Chris Okey is available you take him here.
That does it for my draft preview! Lets hope the Cubs pick future all-starts!
Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Cubs 2nd Overall Pick
This will leave the Cubs with a variety of options obviously but only 3 players really make sense for the Cubs at #2. Lets take a look at all three-
Mark Appel: He has all the make-up to be a number one pitcher on any staff. He struck out 130 batters and walked 23 in 106 innings pitched this season. His fastball is consistently in the mid 90s but can crank it to 98 when he needs to. His secondary pitchers have upside but he needs to master command of those pitches. Most scouts agree he is the best player in the draft with a ceiling as a #1 pitcher and the floor of a middle of the rotation type pitcher. The one thing Appel has that others in the draft do not is the acceleration factor. He is expected to be more polished making it very possible to arrive in the majors sometime in 2014.
Kris Bryant: Grade 80 power, that is Kris Bryant and many scouts think he could still add muscle to that tall skinny frame. Scouts have discussed his floor and ceiling extensively which both are pretty amazing. They think at the lowest end Bryant will hit .270 with 25 HR in the majors. His ceiling is worthy for a 1st overall pick so if the Cubs get him with their pick you cannot fault them which is a .315+ average with 40+ homers. Although Bryant has a bat he is not likely to stay at 3rd which could scare off some teams including the Cubs but many scouts think he could be not as good but close to Bryce Harper good defensively in a corner OF spot. He is the most MLB ready bat in the draft and could see the majors at the beginning of 2015.
Jonathan Gray: The guy has actually a higher upside that Appel but brings more risk. The other thing he has on Appel is his fastball can be cranked up to triple digits and his slider is thought to be Major League ready. Gray is more raw so he will need more seasoning and also will need to develop his change-up and needs help with his overall command. There is also the issue of the banned substance that he tested positive for in a pre-draft drug screening. The banned substance he did not have a prescription for and thus adds some character issues that could hurt his draft stock. Regardless, Gray's upside is Justin Verlander plain and simple. Gray could reach the majors in 2014 but 2015 looks more likely.
Who Is It: Both my pick for the first round and who I think the Cubs will go with is Mark Appel. There is no sure thing in the draft but Appel is as sure as you can get. The Cubs cannot afford to miss on Appel if he is there at #2 so the Cubs will take him and likely see him pitching at Wrigley in 2014. Adding Appel to an already surprising strong rotation of Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and possibly Matt Garza could make the Cubs a force when facing them in a series. The Cubs need pitching and they cannot go wrong selecting the best player in the draft.
Side Note: If the Astros select Mark Appel first overall then I think the Cubs should take Kris Bryant with the 2nd overall pick. Both Gray and Bryant are both gambles but Bryant has an impact middle of the order bat to put with the Cubs already young core of Castro and Rizzo. Add that to uber prospects Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora; you have something really special.
In the End: If the Cubs do select one of the 3 I listed I do not see how someone can be upset. All three players have their positives and negatives but all have a justifiable reason to be draft 2nd overall by the Cubs.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Rizzo & Cubs Strike It Rich and Trades Coming... Plus Signings?
· The Anthony Rizzo deal for the Cubs is fantastic but now I think it maybe even better than first thought after seeing the breakdown Rizzo will get a $2M signing bonus, make $750K in 2013, $1.25M in 2014, $5M in ’15 &’16, $7M in ’17 & ’18, $11M in ’19, and teams options of $14.5M for ’20 & ’21. Special thanks to Jon Heyman for the breakdown on this. Basically making this a 9 year deal worth $70M with incentives.
· With the Cubs only paying Rizzo $14M over the next 3 years it allows the Cubs to hand out more money to other FA and able assume more dollars in contracts via trades. The deal also does not get expensive for several years which in turn helps the Cubs because by then the money from the renovation, TV deals, signage, etc… should be really paying off.
· The next step now in the words of Tom Loxas of CubsDen and others is to lock up Shark and Garza (once proved healthy). I am on board with both but only if the money is right with Garza. I think a deal modeled after Edwin Jackson for Garza is a good starting point for the Cubs and his representatives. Do I think Garza would sign for that, not likely unless a NTC is given, which is not going to happen either. I really do not have grasp on what Shark would get on the open market so I will leave that guessing up to you.
· If the Cubs did lock up Garza and Shark then they could be looking to really cash in on players like DeJesus, Soriano, CarVill, and Feldman as far as prospects. I could then see them packaging the prospects from those deals with current prospects in their farm like Baez, Vogelbach, Johnson, and/or others for a premier young impact player like Giancarlo Stanton for example. Or they could use those prospects and trade them for other prospects which is rare but it has happened.
· Once again if the Cubs did extend Garza and Shark (and deal the others listed above) then their rotation looks pretty strong for 2014 with Shark, Garza, T. Wood, and E. Jackson. Then if they draft Gray or Appel and they are as advertised then wow 2015 looks pretty dang great!
· One guy I think the Cubs need to try to acquire besides Stanton is Jurickson Profar. The guy is going to be a stud, he is near ML ready right now, and is being dangled by the Rangers but not for pieces the Cubs necessarily have. Although a lot could change if Texas has pitching woes and Garza comes back strong. Texas had a lot of interest in Garza last season remember. I also still hold to the fact that a prospect exchange is still very possible between the Rangers and Cubs.
· I love trade scenario’s so how about this one-
Cubs get- Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, and Mike Olt
Rangers get- Matt Garza, Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, and Josh Vitters
The Cubs would have their young dream team infield assembled and ready for the 2014 season with Rizzo at 1st, Profar at 2b, Castro at SS, and Olt at 3rd. I know it is a pipe dream but I can dream can’t I?
Until Next Time….
Friday, May 10, 2013
Quick Hits....
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Cubs Talk: Price, Prospects, and More....
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Cubs Stuff: Svuem, Pitching, Levine, and Much More...
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Quick Hits: Wrigley, Theo, Rizzo, Prospects, and more...
Friday, April 12, 2013
Cubs Hit and Run: Batman, Wrigley, Barney, and More..
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Cubs Hit and Run: Next up, Baez, and Schierholtz
Friday, April 05, 2013
Cubs Hit and Run: Marmol. Reds, Wrigley, and the DH
· Carlos Marmol is still the closer (which I understand why) despite having a 20.50 ERA but it he continues down this road he will lose his spot and all of his trade value.
· The Reds have lost Ryan Ludwick for at least 3 months to which I say the Reds should look at Soriano or DeJesus to replace him.
· Trading away Soriano or DeJesus at this point would have to make sense in the form of prospects. The Cubs are not going to give either away although the addition of Ryan Sweeney on a minor league deal does make it easier to trade one while Brett Jackson continues to get ABs in Iowa.
· It looks like the Wrigley Renovation deal is completed and will be announced before Monday’s home Opener at Wrigley.
· I exchanged emails with a scout friend of mine today who told me that Starlin Castro would be better suited moving from SS to 2b than SS to 3rd when Baez is ready for majors. He did add he can see Baez moving to 3rd but moving him away for SS would be a “shame” given the high ceiling he as in that part of his game.
Now the latest from Jesse Rogers-
· Scherholtz is more of a Theo type hitter and he looks like he will get more early playing time especially if his production continues.
· Brett Jackson will get called up for sure if he produces in AAA Iowa.
· Edwin Jackson is not likely to be traded unless someone gives up the farm.
The DH has been in the news and passionately discussed recently. So I want to say that I come out completely in favor of having the DH in the both leagues. Here is why-
· Having a DH protects your pitchers.
The last thing you want is your pitcher who is getting paid to pitch to get hurt while batting or running the bases. The pitcher does not get paid to hit; they get paid to pitch.
· Adding a DH brings bat the balance of power among the two leagues.
Right now in interleague play and the World Series the AL has a huge advantage in their ballpark. While teams in the AL have players like David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, etc.. for their DH; teams in the NL get to put out utility players and 4th outfielders in that spot. The balance of power needs to be more equal and adding the DH to the NL does that.
· Balancing the “perks” of signing a player to a big contract favors having a DH.
Right now the NL is at a huge disadvantage because a team in the AL can hand out mega deals to the best hitters in the game regardless of defense and age. If a dynamic hitter in the American League can no longer play the field in year 3 of a 7 year deal it is not an issue because they can still plug that player in the DH spot. Where as in the NL you are stuck to either trading, releasing, benching, or letting the player play the field even though he is a defensive liability.
· Making the game more exciting.
So many pitchers get off the hook with the pitcher hitting. It is essentially a free spot for the opposing team when that pitcher comes up to bat. By adding an actual hitter to the lineup you have more big opportunities in a game which makes the game more exciting.
· Veterans/Hitters have more places to play and more options.
There is the potential of 15 more spots for aging veteran ball players or players that simply can hit but not play the field. Players like Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee, etc.. who are still free agents would likely be a part of the MLB right now if the DH existed in the National League. Not only that but players coming up through the minors (Dan Vogelbach) who are good hitters but maybe blocked by an All-Star at their position have more of an opportunity to stay with that team because of the DH option. Furthermore it would allow all players access to all 30 teams through free agency. Because lets be honest a player like Adam Dunn does not have 30 options for several reason but not having a DH in both leagues should not be one of them. Fact is Adam Dunn wanted to sign with the Cubs at a discounted when he was a free agent. It went even as far as hearing speculation that he may accept a one year deal to play for the Cubbies. But because the Cubs were so worried about his defense at 1st and did not have a spot in the outfield they passed on him. If the Cubs had the DH he would have been signed by the them. I have a feeling this is the not a rare occurrence either, we just don’t hear about it.
All in all I am not sure how you argue against the Designated Hitter at this point. The game basics are the same but baseball overall has dramatically changed over time. The average fan likes the long ball, 8 to 7 final scores, and offense overall. Hardcore and traditional fans do love the strategy and tidbits of the game which I respect (and do not discount) but most average fans do not understand that portion of the game. I have evolved on this issue and now firmly support the National League adopting the Designated Hitter.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=chc