A Requirement: Chicago Cubs Coach Ozzie Guillen

So this morning while I went through my twitter feed I came across a wonderfully written article by Patrick Mooney of CSN on Ozzie Guillen and the Cubs.  I suggest you give it a read here.  In fact I suggest you give Patrick Mooney a follow on twitter because pretty much everything he writes is a must read.  But after reading his piece I came to one conclusion.  The Chicago Cubs need Ozzie Guillen as a coach on this team going forward.  

 

While I know that Ozzie likely would never be named manager of the Cubs with the current front office (which Mooney agrees with in his article). I do think he should not only be a candidate for the next coaching staff but he should be a requirement.  One thing the Cubs fans liked so much about Girardi and the reason why he ripped a lot of our hearts out yesterday is his passion for the Cubs.  As fans we want a manager who knows Chicago, loves the Cubs, and have expectations of what it takes to live the experience of being a part of the Cubs.  Joe Girardi had that and guess what?  So does Ozzie Guillen!  While he never played, managed, or coached for the Cubs he spent 19 years as a player and manager of the Chicago White Sox.  He knows the culture, has knowledge of the city, and knows what it takes to win here. 

 

But knowing these things and being passionate about the city of Chicago and the Cubs will not get you the “requirement” tag to put him on the coaching staff from me.  The fact that Ozzie is known as one of the best in game managers in baseball helps out tremendously.  His passion, drive, and the motivation he provides for his players is 2^ndto none.  There were numerous times during post game press conferences Ozzie did something Dale Sveum never did; take all the heat off his players and put it on himself.  Whether you agree with Guillen’s tatics (or antics for that matter) is not important.  His leadership and the way he handles players is what this team desperately needs going forward.

 

Do not get me wrong Ozzie does come with some issues just like many managers.  Some of the things he has said and done have been disrespectful, politically incorrect, and sometimes can be seen as selfish or distasteful.  Such expressing his want for a contract extension through the media, making insensitive comments to Jay Mariotti, declining to visit the White House, the controversial illegal immigration comments in 2010,  and of course the Fidel Castro comment that had him suspended for 5 games in April of 2012.  Those are all issues that Ozzie has had and he paid the price for.  You get the great with the horrible when you have Ozzie Guillen on your team.  And everyone knows eventually Ozzie is going to do something that offends or embarrasses someone but I think there is less of a chance if he is a coach. 

 

Ozzie Guillen would be essential to this new Cubs staff for all the reasons above but one that may get overlooked is his teaching, development, and relation to his players.  Ozzie is known around baseball circles as one of the best teachers in the game.  He is a very hands on manager who works with veteran players and prospects alike.  He expects a lot from them and he gets the most out of them.  The other thing that gets overlooked is his relation to Latin players.  If anyone knows the struggles, expectation, and can relate to  Latin prospects coming up to the big leagues it is Ozzie Guillen.  Currently the Cubs have numerous Latin prospects who getting closer and closer to the big league level not to mention a current player named Starlin Castro (who Guillen thinks is an All-Star SS) who could use a mentor like Ozzie Guillen.  That one big glaring hole from the past years with the Cubs is that they had no Latin voice or influence on this team.  Fact is who better to relate to those up and coming prospects than Ozzie Guillen who is a great teacher, motivator, and went through the same thing as they did.  Having a Latin influence on this team is instrumental whether it be Guillen or someone else but you cannot do much better than Ozzie Guillen.

 

If anyone doubts Ozzie Guillen I suggest our read Patrick Mooney’s article I linked above and also watch this video from earlier this year from CSNChicago in a discussion with Ozzie.  Ozzie Guillen being a part of the Chicago Cubs coaching staff is a necessity regardless of who is manager. A necessity I would applaud and be ecstatic if the front office implemented. 

 

I am ready for Ozzie Guillen on the north side? Are you ready for “Ozzie being Ozzie?”

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

My favorite candidates for managing the Cubs

These are exciting times in the Chicago Cubs organization with the recent firing of Dale Sveum and letting the existing coaching staff “explore other opportunities.”  There are big changes on the way and it starts with the manager first and then the coaching staff.  So in this post today I thought it would be only right I discuss my picks for Manager of the Chicago Cubs. I am only accepting candidates I feel align with most of the front office outlined to the media for the qualities of the new manager. (Note: I sorted them by preference and it should be noted this is my list alone.  Although some of the people named on this list have been named or rumored as candidates for the job)

 

 

1.     Joe Maddon- This guy should be on the top of the list no matter what.  His philosophy, player development, excitement, experience, and success exceeds all expectations put out by the front office.  He whole heartily believes in advance statistics and what he has done with the players he has is nothing short of amazing.  He is 704-644 as a manager in his 10 year career.  Since 2008 he has had 84 or more wins in the most difficult division in baseball to win.  He was named the 2008 and 2011 Manager of the Year.  He made the ALDS 3 times in his career, ALCS one time, and has one World Series loss in his 10 years as manager.  He is highly accomplished and recommended which is why getting him away from what he and Friedman had built will be pretty much impossible.  Still should be the number one priority to at least check in on him. I would yell with joy if they got him.

2.       Joe Girardi- I have talked about him a lot and most of you are familiar with what he has accomplished as manager and his ties to Chicago.  What Joe has done with the Yankees this year and their injuries is nothing short of spectacular.  You combined that with what he did with the 2006 super young over-achieving Florida Marlins and you see two tremendous assets the front office adores.  I guy who can develop players while managing veterans.  A guy who is the complete baseball manager and if it is not for Joe Maddon then he would be #1 on this list.  I would jump for joy if they got Joe.

3.       Mike Maddux- Although Maddux does not have the experience the front office wants in managing or the hands on development but something cannot be ignored and that is the success he has had as a pitching coach.  We have seen some many pitching coaches become good solid managers like Bud Black, John Farrell, etc… I believe you can put Maddux in that category.  Not only does he have that going for him but he is well respect around the league and an advance statistics guy.  Something the Cubs front office requires.  I talked about Maddux in length in my “Managing a Theory” post here.  I also believe Mike Maddux has something to offer that many candidates do not have the leverage to do and that is to lure his brother Greg Maddux to the northside.  That is a huge selling point.  I would be impressed if they landed him.

4.       Manny Acta- Somewhat of a dark horse but should be near the top of the list.  Manny Acta’s resume is beyond impressive.  Manny has worked under Frank Robinson and Willie Randolph so he does have the old school back ground but he is also prides himself and employs sabermetric ideas and concepts.  In an interesting note in 1991 he served as a player/manager at the A level before becoming a full-time manager in 1993.  Manny has worked with the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals but was fired from both positions after first raising expectations then the following year not living up to them.  He is known for his teaching style, player development, and calm demeanor. His ethnic background is also a plus working as manager for the Tigres del Licey in the Dominican Winter League.  Which means he should relate better to the huge amount of Latin prospects the Cubs have in their system. Manny does not have the success in the major leagues but he provides the style, experience, and player development the Cubs front office is looking for.  If the Cubs hired Acta I would not mind it one bit.

5.       Sandy Alomar Jr.- Alomar Jr. breathes baseball and is one of the most respected minds in the game.  Being a former catcher his in game skills are above anyone else on this list with exception to Maddon and Girardi.  Almora worked under Acta during his time in Cleveland as is to be said a dynamic voice in the clubhouse which the Cubs front office covets.  Alomar has been a finalist for the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Indians but has not been given a full-time gig.  The only time Almora managed in the big leagues was for the last days of the season after the Indians fired Manny Acta on September 27^th.  Almora remains on the Indians staff as a bench coach for Terry Francona which remains a plus because he gets a firsthand observation of what Theo likes in a manager. Again I say his ethnic background is a plus for the prospects coming up through the system. The biggest weakness is the old school mentality Almora has in managing and the lack on firsthand experience.  He would be another solid hire that would be hard to get mad at.

6.       DeMarlo Hale- Not a sexy name but he has quite the resume.  Born in Chicago Illinois Hale has been pretty much every phase of the game.  First working at the Buck Dent baseball school in Florida for 4 years before then becoming a AA coach.  That alone proves he has worked with prospects in aspect to player development.  The other thing that is appealing is his experience in Boston being a manager of the year in 95 for Boston’s A affiliate.  He then was promoted to AA Trenton where he compiled a 92-50 record in 99 and was named Manager of the Year by Baseball America.  Before going back to Boston in 2006, Hale managed the Texas Rangers AAA team in 2000-2001.  He did so well there he became the first base coach and OF instructor of the Rangers until 2005.  He finally headed back to Boston in 2006 when he was named 3^rd base coach replacing Dale Sveum.  He was then re-united with Terry Francona in Boston after working with him as a bench coach in Texas.  The years after Hale has been the 3^rd base coach for the O’s and bench coach for the Jays. He also was a finalist for the managerial position with the Jays in 2010.  So while hale does not have the on-field experience his grasp of the minor leagues, player development, and learning curve is pretty unique.  Plus the added bonus of working under Theo and Francona as well.  I would be rather surprised if they did pick Hale but would not be upset if they did.

7.       Dave Martinez-  Studying under Joe Maddon since 2007 certainly help Martinez mojo but have a Cubs connection is also a benefit.  Again the thing that hurts him is not having that management experience but he does have experience working with youth, low payroll, and player development in the Rays organization.  Since 2007 the Rays are 458-352 under his watchful eye.  He, along with Maddon, both have advance statistics experience and mesh well with the front office.  Although Dave Martinez does come with some baggage with the whole Dave Martinez having a fling with Ryne Sandberg’s wife which is I am not sure would be a factor or not.

8.       A.J. Hinch-  Another guy that is intriguing and honestly not much more to say that CubsDen and  BleacherNation has already said.  Hinch would be somewhat of a disappointing hire for me personally because I expect more.  But if Jed has faith in him and has worked with him in the past hard to not trust a hire like Hinch.

9.     Pete Mackanin-  If the Cubs are considering A.J. Hinch then they need to consider Pete Mackanin again.  They essentially have the same background and circumstances but Pete is just older.  Check out all you need to know on Peter Mackanin here.  Chicago native and has a ton of experience in the minors with some major league managerial experience as well.  Also has the advance scouting to add to his resume and has been interviewed by the front office before.  Just like Hinch he does not excite me but I could see the fit.

10.   Ozzie Guillen-…………. Boom!

 

Honorable mention: Bud Black and Tony LaRussa.  Neither one maybe availiable but you have to check.  Both fantastic managers for sure!  I know there will a discussion on LaRussa so that that I say…..

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

 

On The Same Page...New Chapter

The Chicago Cubs fired Dale Sveum for all the right reasons today which is laid out by Theo and provided very nicely by CubsDen

Soon, our organization will transition from a phase in which we have been primarily acquiring young talent to a phase in which we will promote many of our best prospects and actually field a very young, very talented club at the major league level. The losing has been hard on all of us, but we now have one of the top farm systems in baseball, some of the very best prospects in the game, and a clear path forward. In order for us to win with this group – and win consistently – we must have the best possible environment for young players to learn, develop and thrive at the major league level. We must have clear and cohesive communication with our players about the most important parts of the game. And – even while the organization takes a patient, long view – we must somehow establish and maintain a galvanized, winning culture around the major league club.

I believe a dynamic new voice – and the energy, creativity and freshness that comes with this type of change – provides us with the best opportunity to achieve the major league environment we seek. We will begin our search immediately – a process which will be completed before the GM meetings in early November and perhaps much sooner. There are no absolute criteria, but we will prioritize managerial or other on-field leadership experience and we will prioritize expertise developing young talent. We have not yet contacted any candidates or asked permission to speak with any candidates, but that process will begin tomorrow morning.

Here is what I wrote just last Weds. in my piece named “This Off-Season is Predictable?” found here –

Move #1: Fire Sveum/Hire Girardi

 

Probably the first move that is going to be made this off-season is the firing of Dale Sveum and the hiring of Chicago native Joe Girardi.  The front office has asked the fan base, media, and players to be patient because this rebuilding process takes time but we ALL need something.  That something is the firing of Sveum and hiring of Girardi.  The move signals another big step in the rebuilding process.  A signal that says the Cubs are starting the process of competing by adding a manager who is a proven winner, talent developer, and overall beloved Chicagoan Joe Girardi.  By adding Joe they are stating “the organization has their guys in place that has experience with all phases of the managing game and he is going to take the Chicago Cubs to the next level and beyond.  Joe Girardi symbolizes the start of the light that leads us to the end of the tunnel.”  The fact is there has been too many red flags for the Dale Sveum era Cubs.  The recent turmoil in the clubhouse, the regression of core players, in game decisions, and various other things make a decision of firing Sveum easy.  But what makes it easier is filling his place with Joe Girardi.  This is the single most important move of the off-season and I now believe there is a 50/50 shot of it actually happening. (Note: I also tie in the coaching changes here as well.)

No need to call me a Cubs prophet or bowing down, that is not needed.  The fact is anyone could see the writing on the wall in respect to Dale Sveum hiring and the great possibility of Joe Girardi or someone like him being hired to fill role Chicago Cubs manager.  I think what I laid out and what Theo was quoted is about as right on as you can be and honestly it is the right thing to do.  Deep down I do not think Theo believed Dale Sveum was “the guy” to take them all the way but I do believe he was a guy Theo and Jed gambled on to see if he can become “the guy.”  The gamble did not pay off the past two years thus where we are right now.  The writing has been on the wall since June which I expressed my frustration back then found here.  Back then I questioned whether he was the guy and once again the front office has proved I was correct in thinking so. 

Now it becomes the stage of finding that guy to take them to the next level.  The guy to fill the void as manager and excel in all those things Dale Sveum didn’t.  I think the front office has a few managers in mind that they would love to hire with one near impossible to get in Joe Maddon and one that looks almost too good to be true in Joe Girardi.  I think both would be a fantastic land for this front office.  But I also would not count out Mike Maddux who was the front office’s first choice during the last go round.  I guess the only thing left to do is watch the process, analyze, and wait to see if once again Theo and I are on the same page.

 

Until Next Time….

 

 

This Off-Season is Predictable?

Is it just me or is the Cubs offseason activities seem predictable this year?  I feel the front office is being very up front when stating they will have financial constraints this offseason but also believe they will spend money where money makes sense.  I also believe the front office is ready to start turning the corner on this 5 year rebuilding plan heading into year 3.  This means they are likely starting to prepare the team more and more to make that playoff push.  This means new acquisitions, trading assets, and putting money into the now/future players.  I think all of this starts this year and really ramps up year 4 and 5.  These are 5 moves I see the front office making heading into 2014 season.

 

Move #1: Fire Sveum/Hire Girardi

 

Probably the first move that is going to be made this off-season is the firing of Dale Sveum and the hiring of Chicago native Joe Girardi.  The front office has asked the fan base, media, and players to be patient because this rebuilding process takes time but we ALL need something.  That something is the firing of Sveum and hiring of Girardi.  The move signals another big step in the rebuilding process.  A signal that says the Cubs are starting the process of competing by adding a manager who is a proven winner, talent developer, and overall beloved Chicagoan Joe Girardi.  By adding Joe they are stating “the organization has their guys in place that has experience with all phases of the managing game and he is going to take the Chicago Cubs to the next level and beyond.  Joe Girardi symbolizes the start of the light that leads us to the end of the tunnel.”  The fact is there has been too many red flags for the Dale Sveum era Cubs.  The recent turmoil in the clubhouse, the regression of core players, in game decisions, and various other things make a decision of firing Sveum easy.  But what makes it easier is filling his place with Joe Girardi.  This is the single most important move of the off-season and I now believe there is a 50/50 shot of it actually happening. (Note: I also tie in the coaching changes here as well.)

 

 

Move #2: Win the bidding and signing of Masahiro Tanaka

 

The biggest free agent on the market is 24 year old right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka.  He will be a part of a high bidding process just like Yu Darvish but he may not be as good.  Do not get me wrong this guys is good, controllable, and a possible future ace.  He has a career ERA of 2.32 in 1284 IP or his over 1200 SO during that time.  But what is even more impressive is this year he is 20-0 with 23 game started, 181 IP, .934 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 7 SO/9, and sparkling 1.24 ERA.  This is a guy the Cubs cannot miss on which is why making this the next big move of the offseason a must and regardless of money will happen.

 

 

Move #3: Trade Jeff Samardzija

 

This move purely hinges on signing Tanaka in the essence that it is much easier to trade Shark with the addition of Tanaka than it is without.  Trading him is possible and recommended either way which is explained in great detail in a previous post here.

 

 

Move #4: Sign Curtis Granderson

 

This is a move that needs to be done.  The Cubs do have two capable players on the current roster to man CF with Sweeney and Bogusevic but none have the impact that Granderson does.  I also do not feel that Lake is an adequate fit for CF either.  I think the Cubs signing the veteran CF is a wise idea which I explained in a previous post here.

 

 

Move  #5:  Minor Signings and Re-signings (I put all of this under one transaction because I think all of these moves are on the low end and each don’t need their own number)

 

-       Re-Sign Dioner Navarro: They need a back-up catcher and he is the best in the business right now.

-       Re-Sign Donnie Murphy:  Can play all over the infield and has some pop.

-       Re-Sign Ryan Sweeney:  The guy deserves a place on the team.

-       Sign Jeff Baker, Mark DeRosa, or Corey Hart:  Any one of them fills the need of a right-handed bat that can play 1^st and OF which the Cubs desperately need.  All have pros and cons but Hart has the most upside but injury issues plus cost could be a concern which makes Baker and DeRosa look more appealing.

-       Sign a reliever or two with closer experience:  There is a ton to pick from and the Cubs need veteran pen help.

 

 

I think it is obvious this should be the direction the Chicago Cubs front office will and should go.  I believe it all starts from the top and works its way down.  I believe if they do what I lay out here this offseason then the Cubs may end up surprising a lot of teams and even this fan base.  If this does happen you could grade this up and coming offseason an A. 

 

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

Why Replace Dale & With Who?

If the Chicago Cubs are going to make a managerial move this off-season it is going to be for someone who can make big impact now and for the future.  A guy with good name ID who will be great at developing players.  A guy who can develop young talent while still being equally fair to veterans.  I guy who preaches fundamentals, follows the front offices same direction, who is a players manager as well as a disciplinarian.  The only way the Cubs cut the ties with Dale Sveum and the current staff is to find someone who fits this mold I laid out.  Otherwise replacing Dale just does not make baseball sense.

 

Right now there are a few managers who fit the bill well but who will likely not be made available this offseason.  Those managers are Terry Francona, Joe Maddon (my personal favorite), John Farrell, Buck Showalter, and Bruce Bochy.  Below is my list of managers that have a decent chance to be available during this off-season that the Cubs front office would likely be interested in.

 

Bud Black

 

A guy who has worked with Jed Hoyer in San Diego and is known as a good manager and pitching coach.  Black is in the final year of his deal but still has two options.  There is talk the Padres may let Black walk and go in a different direction. Black obviously has experience managing a younger team sprinkled with veterans so that is a huge plus for the Chicago Cubs.  Black also comes with good name recognition and his preaching of fundamentals and player development is 2^ndto none.  This story here has a quote I love regarding Bud Black view on managing.  He says

 

“I think your style sort of changes a little bit based on your personality. The daily conversations are different. There's much more of a teaching aspect now than with the '07 group, and even the '08 group. Really, it transitioned last year to one, a younger team where we had a lot of teaching that had to take place. Which I think if you ask anybody in the (coaches room), we love. We like that, and I still view myself as a teacher to go along with the leadership role. But I like that part, talking the game to players about strategy, about technique, about fundamentals ---- all those things that have to take place on the field, the thought processes in the dugout, the preparation. I love that.”

 

There is also the benefit that he has been a really good pitching coach and a pretty good manager on a team with payroll restrictions.  Although Bud Black isn’t exactly young I think he may be a good fit for this up and coming young team. 

 

 

Mike Maddux

 

I talked in length about Mike Maddux hereback in June.  Here is what I said

 

Now what I have always learned is if you have a problem you fix it.  By laying out a problem without a solution all you are doing is venting, which changes nothing in the end.  So my solution is…. Hire Mike Maddux.  If you all remember Mike Maddux was thought of as the Cubs first pick for the management position but then it came out he wanted to stay in Texas. Then we heard he was not offered the job’ then we heard he was but turned it down.  All that is hearsay now but the reason Mike stayed in Texas was a big one; family.  Mike Maddux currently has all his kids in a college in Texas although some will be graduating next year which brings me to why he may now jump at the chance to coach the Chicago Cubs.  At the end of Dale Sveum’s contract Mike Maddux will be ready to once again entertain management vacancies (or maybe before then) because most of his kids will be graduated or a year away from graduating college.  He will be more open to moving to a new location, new life, and new challenge. 

 

But why Mike Maddux you ask?  Well obviously he is a favorite of Theo and Jed since he went through the interview process.  He fits more of the mentality that Theo and Jed are looking for given this quote on Sabremetrics in an ESPN piece wrote by Jon Greenberg in 2011 “It's art. You can make some things out of them. But there's a lot of real stuff to them also. Good numbers don't lie. Bad numbers can be a little deceptive. You use all the information you can, but when it comes down to it, you got to trust yourself, trust your players and try to put your players in positions where they can succeed.”

 

I suggest everyone to re-read that article and you will find out just why he is the perfect manager for this team to move toward the ultimate goal of a World Series Championship.  Another huge plus by hiring Mike Maddux is the motivation and drive for Mike Maddux to work with his brother Greg.  The feeling is mutual but Greg wanted to again spend time with his family before jumping into baseball full time once again.  At the end of Dale Sveum contract Gregg Maddux will be out of baseball full-time for over 6 years and recently Greg has been slowly getting back into baseball working with the Texas organization. This means he could be looking for something more full-time around the same time Mike Maddux is looking for a coach on his staff. 

 

The timing of Dale Sveum contract which is only 3 year total in length and the time of Mike Maddux kids to get through school seems like a lucky coincidence but we do not know what took place in those meetings between Mike Maddux, Theo Epstein, and Jed Hoyer.  I am not implying that they have a secret deal under the table or anything like that.  But what I am saying is all three men are smart and if Maddux said something to the effect of “if this was three years later, I would take the Cubs job in a heartbeat,” that had to be a factor with giving Sveum only 3 years when the President and GM each have 5 years on their contract (something that is rare).  A good businessman always looks years ahead and plays out each and every scenario he/she can think of.  Theo and Jed are good at what they do and if they think the Maddux brothers might be available in 3 years and Mike is the guy they actually wanted; then hiring Dale to a 3 year deal make sense.  I am assuming they just wanted to see what Dale can do in 3 years in Chicago to see if he is the long term option (which is smart).  Well if you are in the place I am in then you think he is not the long term option.  And oh what do you know after 3 years (or sooner) Mike Maddux looks like he available for the Chicago Cubs new Manger vacancy.

 

Mike Maddux seems like the perfect package for the Cubs… almost.

 

Joe Girardi

 

Not much to say here that is not already written by better writers than myself.  So I will provide the links to their thought on Mr. Girardi-

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/loxas-factor/2013/09/timing-could-be-right-for-girardi-and-cubs/

http://cubbiescrib.com/2013/09/16/joe-girardi-next-cubs-skipper/

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/09/16/lukewarm-stove-joe-girardi-free-agency-and-the-chicago-cubs/

 

You know it is just not like me not to weigh in so here I go.  It is extremely hard for me to be fair when talking about Joe Girardi because I have a bit of a man crush on him.  I supported Jim Hendry and Co. hiring him the last time he was a free agent but the front office went with Sweet Lou which at the time I was very heated about but in the end you can’t really blame Hendry going either way.  Joe has been a favorite person and player to me because of his devotion to Chicago, the Cubs, and its fan base.  He is energetic, stubborn (in the right way), good with young players and great with the veterans.  He is a former catcher so he knows the ends and outs of the game plus he has experience dealing with Chicago as a whole.  I feel Joe Girardi would know what to expect because he has been here and done that.  He has experience with the Cubs devoted fan base, he has experience with the Chicago media, and he will openly admit his admiration for everything Chicago.  Mr. Girardi has done a lot for only being a 48 year old skipper.  He has guided a extremely young 2006 Florida Marlins team to a 78-84 record and was in the wildcard hunt even with the lowest payroll in the league that year.  He was named Manager of the Year that year and then promptly fired by micro-managing owner Jeffrey Loria.  He has now proven he can manage an aging veteran team in the Yankees just as well.  Although his first year he did not make the playoffs his team finished a fantastic 89-73 and in 2009 he lead the Yankees to their 27^th World Series.  But probably Joe’s best two seasons is the one he is having currently and the 2011 Yankees when they were expect to struggle throughout the year.  In 2011 and this year Joe has shown he can manage and succeed with whatever a the front office gives him.  Sure he still has superstars but with the aging and banged up team that had Granderson, Cano, ARod, Texiera, Youk, and others all being bit by that injury bug he is still in the wildcard hunt this season.  A feat that is beyond amazing.

 

There is no question that if Joe becomes available he will be looked at closely by the Chicago Cubs.  In fact I am saying right now the only way he leaves the Yankees is to come Chicago.  His love for the team, city, and fans is 2^nd to none; no other team can compete with that. 

 

 

Conclusion

 

The only way I am advocating Dale Sveum being fired is if there is a suitable replacement out there is off-season that the front office knows they want and can get.  The front office is great at analyzing every angle and I am sure they already have a short list of guys they are willing to fire Dale over.  The three guys above I feel will not only be possibly available but I believe they are 3 guys on that short list of coveted guys.  These 3 guys embody everything the front office and the Cubs are looking for to take the northsiders to the next level.  I honestly think that if Mike Maddux or Joe Girardi and to a lesser extent Bud Black are out there looking for a manager position and the Cubs have a great shot at getting one then Dale Sveum will be let go.  As it stands right now I think there is a 30% chance Dale Sveum is fired but as we know those odds can dramatically change from day to day.

 

Until Next Time….

 

 

 

 

Finally a Easy Decision!

With the Chicago Cubs making closing out the season and with all the decisions of next season looming there is one decision that should not be hard… Trading Jeff Samardzija.

 

I know a lot of the things I have been posting lately maybe considered out of my element and a bit more bold but I think going into the next season that is what the Cubs need to do.  The need to be more bold.  What move is more bold than trading the “Ace” of the current Cubs staff Jeff Samardzija.  Jeff Samardzija has been an interesting player since his 2008 debut going from a good reliever into a better starter.  Not only that but the wear and tear on his arm at the age of 28 is pretty much nonexistent because of the low amount of innings pitched.  It should also be noted the at the age of 28 Jeff is arbitration eligible for 3 more years and a free agent in 2016.  This year’ in Samardzija’s first arbitration year; he is making $2.64M which is he due a significant jump next year and the years followed.  But even so’ for the next 3 years the Cubs are in good shape contract and money wise.  Shark had an opportunity to cash in on last season’s 28 games started with a 3.81 ERA and 180 SO but choose to play through this season so the Cubs front office could get a better look.  Well it looks like the plan backfired on Jeff Samardzija.  Shark is now posting a 4.44 ERA and 195 SO in 30 games started this season which looks somewhat similar to last season minus the ERA.  But the intangibles is what jumps off the page as negatives.  First you had Shark earlier this season criticizing moves made by the front office and even coming to Jim Hendry’s aid several times.  Then you have the very public contract turn down and making it known he does not want to discuss a long-term deal until this offseason.  Now you are seeing a poor trend with Shark with him not “thinking about his pitches,” having big bad innings, and just not pitching like an ace.  In Jeff Samardzija’s last 10 starts he has given up 4 or more runs in 7 of them and only gotten past the 6^th inning 3 times.  This is a poor trend we are seeing both on the field and off the field with Shark which I think leads to a trade.

 

The good news is regardless of his down season if Jeff Samardzija is trade bait this winter he would be better than any free agent pitcher available because of his health, age, contract, arm, stats, and upside.  The only players that would come close to his caliber on the free agent market would be James Shields, Ervin Santana, and Matt Garza which all will require a lot more money and have various issues of their own that put them below Shark.  Now the trade market could cause of flux in the Samardzija market but only time will tell in that case.  I look at Shark’s trade value to be at a better return value than that of Matt Garza, Anibal Sanchez, and even James Shields.  I believe the Cubs asking price of 2 top prospects in the 30-50 range plus more (they were looking for the same package during the deadline) is what they are looking for during the off-season.  I also believe the Cubs will get the return they are looking for if they do in fact make Jeff Samardzija available.  Hard to say no to a package around 2 top 50 prospects plus more.

 

The other good news on the Cubs side (beside the fact that if they acquired two guys in the top 50 prospect range) is the Cubs can yet again afford to deal pitching.  Next year again will be tough year but I won’t go as far as saying a lost one like this season because the development of prospects could change the route dramatically.  Right now the Cubs have 4 players locked into the rotation even if Shark left which are Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Chris Rusin, and Jake Arrieta.  Plus the emergence of other pitching prospects and minor leaguer that could easily fill a spot in the rotation, most notably Vizcaino.  Lets also not forget the Cubs could acquire (we hope) a near ML ready arm for Samardzija who fill that spot as well.  Even if the Cubs decide not go in house and trade Jeff they could look to free agency for a high upside low cost piece they could essentially flip like they have done so many times before.  Some starters who could fit that mold for next season are Barry Zito, Josh Johnson, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Baker, Roy Halladay, Phil Hughes, Colby Lewis, and/or Edison Volquez just to name a few. This makes it again very easy to deal Shark.

 

By trading Samardzija the Cubs are essentially saying they are truly committed to the future and do not see Jeff being a part of that for one reason or another.  We have heard the rumors of the current front office essentially purging the old front office’s players but I find that hard to believe.  I feel the Cubs front office are purging player that just do not fit the mold or direction they are looking for which Hendry did a great job of finding players that don’t work out in this current front office’s direction.  Jeff may just be another casualty to this.  This season was suppose to be the season that Jeff puts everything together, his breakout season; but that does not look like the case.  Jeff, his agent, and the Cubs were banking on this season for the next step and it looks like it cost Shark millions and could save the Cubs millions.  Now I do not want you to think I am really down with Shark; I am not.  But looking at the road ahead for the Cubs and the front office.  I think the best route is to acquire more young prospects for a guy who is good but not great while his value is still sky high.  Even if the Cubs ended up locking up Samardzija long-term I have complete faith that the front office did their homework and feel he will become an elite pitcher for the Cubs.  But as of right now I just don’t see the Cubs doing that.  I do see them trying to sell high on Shark especially if he wants to hold out one more year (for money) or want more money than they think he is worth. I can honestly say that the Cubs front office contract offer from last year was going to be much bigger than any contract offer going Jeff’s way this offseason.  This is just yet another reason why a Jeff Samardzija trade makes sense.

 

My final point has to do with the future.  Currently the Cubs are in wait and see mode as far as prospects.  They only have a few legitimate prospects that could make it to the ML next season and that is Olt, Vizcaino, and Baez (Bryant has an outside shot).  The rest of the prospect likely will not see any ML time until the 2015 season which is about when the Cubs will start completing for the playoffs.  You should also start see more impact free agency signings to fill the holes left by prospects not living up to potential.  If this is the case and the Cubs do not hammer out a long term deal for Shark he would be in the final year or arbitration and on the wrong side of 30.  By dealing Jeff for 2 top 50 prospects plus more you are likely to get guys who can contribute sooner and would have a bigger impact.  Plus if the deal is made before the 2014 season the Cubs prospect praise and ranking would be #1 in baseball for 2014.  The Cubs have 4 top 50 prospect currently plus adding 2 more from the Samardzija trade makes 6 prospects in the top 50 which is pretty much unheard of.  These prospect in turn could fill the holes the Cubs need, add positional prospect depth in case one or more prospects don’t work out, or end up trade bait for an impact major league test player.  By holding all the young prospect cards it would put the Cubs in a prime position to make a playoff impact sooner than 2015.  Once again another reason to trade the Shark.

 

At least this offseason there is one easy decision… Trading Jeff Samardzija.

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

Mike Olt Holds the Key

All the Cubs plans going forward in respect to free agents, position changes, and future stars hinge on one person… Mike Olt. 

(Note: It has been said numerous times Starlin Castro will not be moved from SS because of the vested time there.  He will play there or be traded)

 

I know what you are saying.  What do you mean Mike Olt and how does he effect anything?  Well Mike Olt right now is the closest prospect the Cubs have to the major leagues at a position the Cubs could use some upgrading.  There are also at least 3 other top infield prospects below him in the minor leagues which complicate things in the near future but not now.  Mike Olt has to prove this Spring Training that his bat can live up to his defense at 3^rd base.  The reason is because his success or failures determine how the new future roster is constructed.

 

For example if Mike Olt during Spring Training is killing the ball, playing great defense (which we know he already plays ML caliber D at 3^rd), and is named the starting 3^rd baseman for the 2014 Cubs then you can move Javier Baez to 2^nd or leave at SS, move Kris Bryant to the outfield (where I think he will end up anyways), and Arismendy Alacantra then can see time all around the diamond as a possible utility player or trade bait.  Sure the Cubs front office is already ahead of the game and will have Baez, Bryant, and other top prospects play different positions in AFL and winter ball.  Having said that there is a huge difference in playing a variety of position in fall/winter ball and putting together a year at a different position during the 2014 season.  Having Olt make his mark in the major leagues and stabilizing it throughout 2014 is going to determine these other prospects positional fate.

 

For another example let’s say Olt does not produce or get things together and remains in Iowa.  First it could dampen expectations for him and cause more position uncertainty for another year with the current crop of prospects.  If he never gets it together then there is obviously more options for players to move around the diamond.  You could see Javier Baez move from SS to 2^nd or 3^rd base in this example.  You could also see Kris Bryant man 3^rd or still move to the OF.  As for Arismendy Alacantara he may end up the starting 2^nd baseman if Baez moves to 3^rdand Bryant moves to the outfield.  See what I mean about a lot of uncertainty if Olt does not live up or near expectations.  Once again proof that Mike Olt overall productions and path can either cause stability or craziness in the positions of the Chicago Cubs future prospects.

 

Of course my prediction on this could be way off and a thing like a Javier Baez or Starlin Castro trade could change the direction of this post completely.  But I have to believe that the current path the Cubs front office is going Mike Olt holds the key to a lot of things becoming more clear or a lot foggier.  Having said all this I believe Mike Olt will be the Chicago Cubs starting 3^rd baseman next season and produce like the front office think he will after trading for him.  I will even go one step further and say the future lineup in either 2015/2016 will look like this.

 

1.     Starlin Castro SS

2.     Anthony Rizzo 1st

3.     Javier Baez 2b

4.     Kris Bryant LF

5.     Jorge Soler RF

6.     Albert Almora CF

7.     Mike Olt 3B

8.     Welington Castillo C

 

Yes I believe so much in the front office and talent evaluators that 5 of the Cubs top prospect this year will be starting in the 2015/2016 season.  Not all will be All-starts but right now I believe all will be starters.

 

Until Next Time….

 

 

 

Cubs GRANDerson Free Agent Target

I am back in the saddle again!  I’M BAAAACKKK!

 

Please excuse the Aerosmith reference but I am finally back to the blog.  In case you all did not know my wife and I are expecting our 3^rd child in January so things have been quite crazy leaving my blogging and the Cubs low on the priority list.  But having said that I am back.

 

There has been a lot of speculation on the player or type of player the Cubs should and will go after this offseason.  There has been a lot of talk about financials from both CubsDenand  BleacherNation which will also impact the type of player the Cubs go after this offseason.  But having said all that I believe the Cubs main target will fit into what they are doing for the now, future, and will not impact money going forward.  That main target is Curtis Granderson.

 

The Chicago Cubs main target this offseason should not be bullpen like everyone is clamoring for; it needs to be a centerfielder.  The Cubs current roster has guys like Ryan Sweeney, Brian Bogusevic, and to a lesser extent Junior Lake as guys who can man CF next year.  The Cubs are not going to carry both Brian Bogusevic and Ryan Sweeney because both play equal defense in CF and both bat left-handed.  But the issue is neither one is really a starter in the ML which brings in Junior Lake.  Now Junior Lake bat can certainly carrying in CF but his defense remains suspect which we all know could improve but as an everyday guy in CF it does not make much sense.  In the minors the Cubs have Matt Sczcur, Brett Jackson, Jae-Hoon Ha, and John Andreoli that could fit the bill but most are not ready and do not provide much of an upgrade over Sweeney or Bogusevic.  So without an everyday ML centerfielder on the roster or in the minors the Cubs need to fill the void until Albert Almora is ready.  So the Cubs have to look at free agency.

 

Looking into free agency you can pretty much cross off Shin-Soo Choo (mostly corner spot) and Jacoby Ellsbury because of the money issues right now with the Cubs.  Not to mention each probably want a deal around 4-5 years; where the Cubs could be looking at a 3 year deal with 4 at the max.  You can also cross off guys who primarily fill the corner spots in the outfield so no Corey Hart, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, or Mike Morse.  Also cross guys off like Rajai Davis, Rick Ankiel, Franklin Gutierrez, Tony Gwynn Jr., Nyjer Morgan, and David DeJesus because all are not that big of an upgrade over Bogu or Sweeney.  Two names besides Curtis Granderson that I feel the Cubs will look at and consider as fall back options are Chris Young and CoCo Crisp but neither one offer a complete package that Granderson does.  Chris Young misses consistency and OBP while Crisp misses the mark on power. 

 

So why does Curtis Granderson deserve the Cubs top target this offseason?  What makes him more special that the players above?  Here is why-

 

Contract:  Curtis Granderson is no longer a $15M a year outfielder in the league and you can thank the downward trend of the market combined with recent injury history which plays in the Cubs hands very well.  Granderson’s market will be very interesting giving the recent signing struggles of free agent CF Michael Bourn plus a crowded free agent OF next year which benefits the Cubs as well.  The cost of Granderson will be closer to what he is worth because of these things and Theo has told the media countless times making an investment large or small has to make sense for the now and future.  Which Granderson does.  Curtis Granderson is not going to get over a 4 year deal on the open market which plays into the Cubs hands of wanting a “transition guy” to eventually give way to Albert Almora.  I can see Granderson getting a 3-4 year deal worth from $8M-$12M which plays into the Cubs hands perfectly.  Lets not forget the Cubs were in talks last year for guys like Michael Bourn, BJ Upton, Justin Upton, and even Shane Victorino before those players signed deals out of the front offices comfort zone.  You would have to assume the Cubs will be looking to fill the void again this off-season especially without the fall back option currently on the roster.  Granderson fits the Cubs contract demands for sure.

 

Position:  The Cubs need an everyday CF until Almora or others are ready which makes Granderson a slam dunk.  Not much to say here.

 

Hitting:  Curtis Granderson is a bat the Cubs desperately need and at a premium defensive position on the field which makes his bat even better.  With a career OBP of .342 and .832 OPS; his bat will make a huge impact on the Cubs current roster.   Granderson from 2007-2012 has hit at least 22 homeruns and even topped 40 homers in 2011 and 2012.  Although there is no place in the lineup where he is dramatically better than the next it seems the bulk of his career has been batting 1^st (.345 OBP) and 2^nd(.359 OBP).  As a lefty he does fair much better against right handed pitching which could allow Junior Lake to see more time in the outfield against lefties.  His stats at are Wrigley are crazy good (even with a small sample size).  In just 25 Abs Wrigley he has a .320 avg with a .379 OBP and a 1.099 OPS.  He has 1 double, 3 triples, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and 3 BB at Wrigley in his career.  I could see Granderson batting in any spot in this lineup but maybe best utilized batting 1^st or 2^nd.

 

Defense: While he is not a spry chicken anymore he is only 32 years old but still can play solid CF defense.  In fact his .994 fielding percentage is better than the Cubs previous CF David DeJesus who sports a .991 fielding percentage in CF. Let’s face it DeJesus did really well in CF and Granderson would be an upgrade over that even. There is no question he can play CF for the next 3 years at a high level.

 

Tradable Asset:  With the contract Granderson is expect to get and the Cubs interest you have to think about the sign and trade aspect we have seen them utilize in the past.  Although with Granderson the only way he gets dealt is if Almora is ready since there is no replacement right now.

 

This is why Curtis Granderson should be the main free agent target for the Cubs.  I also believe he will be one of the; if not the, main target for the Cubs front office for all the reasons I laid out above.

 

Until Next Time….

 

Remembering Soriano...A Cub Great

Alfonso Soriano has been a guy you not only rooted for but also is the reason why you screamed at your TV.  But unlike Soriano’s hitting he has been consistent and a staple in the Chicago Cubs organization since joining in 2007. The fact is, like it or not, Soriano has been a Chicago Cubs longer than he was a Texas Ranger, a Washington National, and even a New York Yankee.  He has been both a dynamic leader in the clubhouse, an all-star, a mentor to young players, and lets not forget a good baseball player for the Cubs. 

 

Here is some good stats to remember Soriano by:

 

·         Alfonso Soriano places 11^th among all Cubs with 181 home runs as a Chicago Cub.  This places him above Andre Dawson (174), Derrek Lee (179), and Mark Grace (148).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 9^th among all Cubs with a .495 Slugging % as a Chicago Cub.  This places him above Ron Santo (.472), Ryne Sandberg (.452), Moises Alou (.484), and Mark Grace (.445).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 29^th among all Cubs with a .812 OBPS % as a Chicago Cub.  This places him above most notably Ryne Sandberg (.796).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 43^rd among all Cubs with 889 games played as a Cub.  This places him above Andre Dawson (867) and Hack Wilson (850).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 27^th among all Cubs with 1685 total bases as a Cub.  This puts him above Bill Buckner (1664) and Andre Dawson (1654).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 24^th among all Cubs with 218 doubles as a Chicago Cub.  This puts him above Don Kessinger (201), Hack Wilson (185), and Andre Dawson (149).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 32^nd among all Cubs with 526 RBIs as a Chicago Cubs.  This puts him above Shawn Dunston (489), Leo Durham (485), and Jody Davis (467).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 18^th among all Cubs with 412 Extra Base Hits as a Chicago Cub.  This puts him above Shawn Dunston (381), Andre Dawson (350), and Frank Chance (299).

·         Alfonso Soriano tied with 3^rd among all Cubs with 77.78 SB % as a Cub.  He is tied with Bobby Dernier and above Ryne Sandberg (71.4), Billy Williams (64.66), and Ernie Banks (48.54).

·         Alfonso Soriano placed 7^th among all Cubs with averaging 18.8 AB per HR.  This puts him above Derrek Lee (19.6), Billy Williams (21.6), and Ryne Sandberg (29.7).

 

These are amazing stats for any ball player and seeing how he ranks against other popular and iconic Cubs has to gives you the feeling that we should appreciate Alfonso Soriano so much more than we did.  Yes his baby hops as he caught a flyball were annoying, his gazing at not quite homeruns frustrated us, his poor routes taken in the field resulted in us shouting, and his injury history caused many of us to ask what would have been.  But that was Alfonso Soriano.  He was a leader, a good baseball player, and most importantly a good human being.  Most of the things Soriano did great did not show up in a stat book.

 

The fact is Soriano is an impressive baseball player and he should be appreciated for everything that makes him who he is.  A great person and player for the Chicago Cubs.

 

He will be missed!

 

 

 

Garza Return Expectations

One of the hardest things to determine is a players trade value and return in baseball.  There are so many changing variables such as market, contract, value, age, teams involved, team needs, etc...  But when we get a nice juicy nugget like this it gives us a window into what the Cubs front office expects in return.  Keep in mind a lot can change from now until Garza is traded but it is obvious the Cubs are going to sell high and go after at least one pitcher (this goes back to last year when wanting to acquire a top tier pitcher in the deal. The Cubs system for pitchers is pretty weak) and an impact athlete (which is usually someone up the middle of the field CF, SS, 2b.  The front office loves these type of players because if needed the can move around the field where the Cubs may have a need).  This is why when the O's and Cubs discussed Garza the Cubs wanted Jonathan Schoop (top 50) and Eduardo Rodriguez (top 100).

We have heard upwards of 11 team interested in Garza which are likely the Rangers, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rockies, Indians, Jays, Dbacks, Nationals, and the Pirates.  All teams have varying interest in the right-hander and most have the prospects the Cubs are looking for in a deal for Garza.  In this post we will look at the most needy and rumored teams for Garza services.  These teams are The Rangers, Red Sox, Padres, Jays, and Dodgers.  We now have the knowledge of the quality of prospects the Cubs want in return for Garza and the teams that have interest in Garza.  So here is the 5 teams and the prospects the Cubs would want in return using the model of what they asked for when talking to the Orioles.

Note I used both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects for 2013.


Rangers Top Prospects

Jurickson Profar SS-
Rated #1 prospect overall by both sites he is pretty much off-limits unless the Cubs decide one of their top prospects with Garza or trade Samardzija.  So he is pretty much not going anywhere and is rated too high to come to the Cubs for Garza alone.

Mike Olt 3B/OF-
Rated #22 by Baseball America and #30 by Baseball Prospectus the slugger has fallen down a dark hole as far as prospects are concern.  Vision problems and injury woes resulted in just a .198 avg over 52 games in AAA is a big concern.  The Cubs currently have a nice crop of players that could play 3rd so I do not see Olt as a guy they would look for but they have had interest in the past so he could be part of the deal just not the headliner.

Martin Perez LHP-
Rated #81 by Baseball America and #59 by Baseball Prospectus this guy could be a good solid middle of the rotation starter in the Majors.  Especially considering it seems like he has figured it out at the Major League level at the ripe age of 22.  This year he is posting a 1.85 ERA in 4 starts in Texas and could find himself as the headliner in a deal for Matt Garza.  The Cubs had interest in him last year as well.

Leonys Martin CF-
Rated #98 by Baseball America but does not rank on BP it is unlikely this guy would be moved considering the Rangers OF woes.

Jorge Alfaro C-
Rated #76 by BP but not rated by BA this is not the type of guy I see the Cubs going after.

Luis Sardinas SS-
Rated #86 by BP but not rated by BA this is a guy I could see the Cubs going after.  Not as good as Profar but very athletic and the type of player the Cubs like to target.  He has posted a .281 avg with a .336 OBP and 21 SB in high A this season.  Very raw but the Cubs could target him.

Honorable Mention-

Luke Jackson and Cody Buckel will likely find themselves in top 100 next season and both would interest the Cubs greatly.  Luke's Baseball Reference Page and Cody's Baseball Reference Page.

Conclusion:  The Cubs would be in a great position to get the most out of Garza by dealing him to Texas.  The Rangers wanted him last year so the interest is definitely there.  If the Cubs could get Martin Perez and one of Cody Buckel or Luke Jackson it would be a nice haul for the Cubs and even very likely.


Red Sox Top Prospects

Xander Bogaerts SS-

Rated #8 by BA and #12 by BP this is the Red Sox top prize but with 2nd base taken by Pedoria and how well Jose Iglesias is playing he could be a valued trade chip for the Red Sox.  But just like Profar; Xander might be to rich for Garza so unless another piece or two is added I don't see him going anywhere.

Jackie Bradley Jr. OF-

Rated #31 by BA and #27 by BP Bradley started the year with the Red Sox but after some struggling was sent back down.  He is now hitting .298 avg with a .387 OBP and 7 homers in AAA.  Let me be the first one to tell you that Jackie Bradley Jr. could be the main piece in a trade for Garza.  Theo knows his system and the competition for Garza seems to be high so getting Bradley Jr. seems a possibility for Garza alone.  But if the Cubs did get Bradley another top 100 prospect along with him is unlikely without additional pieces involved.

Matt Barnes RHP-

Rated #40 by BA and #38 by BP is Barnes who could also be the headliner in a trade for Garza but would be accompanied by another top 100 prospect as well.  Barnes has struggled some in AA posting a 5.19 ERA but his SO/9 is at 11.0 so he does have swing and miss ability.  Some believe he could be a front line starter while others thing he could be a nice closer.  Either way he would be a great piece of the Cubs to pick up.  And once again a guy drafted by Theo.

Allen Webster RHP-

Rated #40 by BA and #69 by BP is would be a dream to get both Barnes and Webster in a deal for Garza so that is likely not to happen but with Webster you could see him with another top 100 prospect plus another piece.  Besides his disastrous MLB numbers he seems to be getting it together in AAA.  2.98 ERA 56 SO to 22 BB and a WHIP under 1.00 in 10 starts is impressive.  The Cubs tried to acquire Webster for Dempster last deadline but we all know how that turned out.

Henry Owens LHP-

Rated #91 by BA and not rated by BP is 20 year old lefty Owens.  It is entirely possible that the Cubs could get Owens along with Barnes or Webster.  There is a slimmer than slim chance the Cubs could get Jackie Bradley Jr. with Hendry Owens but like I said very slim.  Owens in high A ball has posted 2.91 ERA in 15 starts while avg. 10 SO per 9 innings.  Another guy the Cubs would want and drafted by Theo

Honorable Mention-

Anthony Ranaudo is a former first round pick by Theo and seems to be getting it together at the age of 23 in AA posting a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts.  Another power pitcher averaging just over 9 SO over 9 innings seems like a fit for the Cubs.  He was ranked 67th best prospect in 2011 by BA.

Garin Cecchini  is also a former pick by Theo in 2010 but is not your usual type of player the Cubs would trade for but it is hard to argue with numbers.  Just see for yourself here.

Conclusion:  The Cubs would benefit from trading with the Red Sox given the knowledge Theo has of the system.  The Red Sox has a wave of talent and are in position to make a run at another World Series if they can add an arm.  I think if the Cubs got one of Bradley, Webster, or Barnes with one of Hendry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, or Garin Checchini they would clean up nicely for Matt Garza. The Red Sox may be the best trading partners for the Cubs involving Garza.


Padres Top Prospects

Max Fried LHP-

Rated #46 by BA and #61 by BP he could be the headliner or 2nd prospect in a deal for Matt Garza a first round pick last year could be on this way in a deal for Garza but word is the Padres really want to hold onto him.  It is hard to judge if he would be available or not. In 14 starts he has posted a 3.64 ERA but is pretty raw in A ball.

Austin Hedges C-

Rated #58 by BA and #19 by BP it is know he is pretty much off limits for the Padres.  In high A he is hitting .269 with .355 OBP and is pretty polished behind the plate catching 37% of base runners this year.  This is a guy the Cubs might want but not as a headliner so the match is just not there.

Jedd Gyorko 2B/3B-

Rated #71 by BA and #84 by BP he does not fit the bill of someone the Cubs would go after but I could be surprised.  He is currently coming back from an injury and is needed on the Padres so availability may be an issue.

Honorable Mention-

Matt Wisler is a 20 year old righty who has put up decent numbers between high A and AA.  In 16 starts he is posting a 2.93 ERA 8 SO/9 and has great control only giving up 2 walks per 9 innings.

Robbie Erlin is a 22 year old pitcher who has been moving through the system jumping from rookie ball last year to AAA this year.  He has struggled in AAA this year but that is expected with someone moving up so quickly. See the rest of his stats here.

Conclusion: Out of all the teams the Padres seem like an unlikely fit.  The Cubs would have to come away with Wisler, Erlin, and Fried for me to be happy.  If they came away with Casey Kelly (Tommy John Surgery, not included on the list), Wisler, and Erlin that would make me very happy.  I just do not see a deal happening here with the current formula.


Blue Jays Top Prospects

Aaron Sanchez RHP-

Rated #65 by BA and #32 by BP is a guy that would likely be the headliner in a trade for Garza.  The 21 year old first round pick is posting a 2.73 ERA in high A ball and a WHIP under 1.000.  He has middle of the rotation potential and would be a nice get for the Cubs.  He would be available for Garza plus one more top 100 prospect.

Marcus Stroman RHP-

Rated #98 by BA and not rated by BP is a guy who did serve a suspension for PED use but since has gotten clean.  If there is integrity issues I expect the Cubs to pass but he has put up some decent numbers in AA with a 3.38 ERA and 10 SO/9.  He would be a nice 2nd piece for the Cubs to acquire for Garza.

Sean Nolin LHP-

Rated #97 by BP and not rated by BA is 23 year old left Sean Nolin.  Nolin is the guy I want from the Jays in a deal for Garza plain and simple. Nolin in 10 games with AA has posted 2.61 ERA 9 SO/9 2 BB/9 and has the potential to be a #2 starter in the big leagues.  The closest to be ready as far as pitcher go is Nolin and the Cubs could get him plus Sanchez in a deal which should blow your mind as a Cubs fan.

Honorable Mention- (There is quite a few)

Anthony Goose is an outfielder and former top prospect himself has struggled throughout his career in the minors but still got the call up to the big leagues this year.  Again he is an athlete but not a main piece or even a secondary piece in a deal for Garza

Daniel Norris is a former top 100 prospect but has control issues.  He is another guy that if the Cubs think they can fix he would be a steal.  See his stats here.

Roberto Osuna is only 18 years old but he has the makings of being something special.  The Cubs have to have interest.  See his stats here.

A.J. Jimenez is could be the real deal and might find himself in the top 100 prospect list next season if he continues to do what he is doing. He has natural ability behind the plate so if he bat continues to produce he will become something special. See his stats here.

Conclusion:  The Jays are very interesting because the really do not have any high impact talent but have a lot of borderline top 100 definite top 150 prospects in their system.  I think as far as quantity the Jays seem like a good fit.  I think the Cubs could get Aaron Sanchez, Sean Nolin, and A.J. Jimenez in a deal Garza.  I honestly believe that.


Dodger Top Prospects

Hyun-Jin Ryu LHP-

Rated #42 by BA and not rated by BP this guy is not going to be available.  Plain and simple.  If he is I take him straight up for Garza.

Zach Lee RHP-

Ranked #87 by BP and not rated by BA this could be the prime piece for Garza and he should be.  He is trending in the right direction and could move up the top 100 prospect list for next season.  I love what Zach Lee brings and think he is potential ace material. In 17 starts he has a 2.79 ERA in AA at the age of 21.

Honorable Mention:

Joc Pederson is an athlete and good outfielder.  A former top 100 prospect was drafted in 2010 and continues to improve. Check his stats here.

Corey Seager would be an interesting target given he is a first round pick back just last year and has done well in A ball this season.  See his stats here.

Ross Stripling is a guy I could definitely see the Cubs going for.  At age 23 he has incredible control and a decent SO rate.  See his stats here.

Michael Thomas sounds like a guy that if the Cubs wants to help their bullpen he could be a nice addition.  See his stats here.

Chris Reed is another guy the Cubs could look at.  See his stats here.

Conclusion:  Just like the Jays the Dodgers have a lot of prospects that are borderline 100 but more in the 150 range.  Because of this I can see the Cubs getting more than two pieces in a deal for Garza.  Realistically a deal that includes Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, and one of Chris Reed, Ross Stripling, or Michael Thomas seems about right in a deal for Garza.



Final Thoughts

In my opinion the Chicago Cubs front office is going to do their best to get the most high impact prospect talent package they can get.  I think it is going to be quality over quantity because the Cubs are just a few prospect pieces away from fielding their young prospect dream team.  I think if the Cubs did any of these deals they would automatically become the #1 farm system in MLB.

But having said all that I feel the team that has the best prospects available to the Cubs for what they are looking for is the Rangers.  I think if the Cubs could land Martin Perez and either Cody Buckel or Luke Jackson they would be getting one heck of a deal.  Not to mention two pieces that likely could help this season and beyond. 

In a close 2nd I put the Red Sox because if they are willing to trade one of Bradley, Barnes, or Webster with one of Hendry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, or Garin Checchini it would be hard to beat.  Plus Theo knows that farm so well.  They are 2nd but a very close 2nd.

I think the 3rd team I would like to deal with is a tie with the Jay and Dodgers because they seem like they are in a similar position.  Getting Aaron Sanchez or Zach Lee a the main piece plus more is hard to come by but the Cubs want higher impact talent and both do not provide that as much as the Rangers and Red Sox.

That leaves the Padres who I just do not see a fit here.

One thing is for sure the Cubs are not going to come away with a disappointing package of prospects for Garza.  We will just have to wait and see which team is willing to give up that game changing prospect package.



Until Next Time....