Predicting the Cubs 25-man roster

Time for my Pre-Spring Chicago Cubs 25-man roster prediction.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Jeff Samardzija

Travis Wood

Jake Arrieta

Edwin Jackson

Jason Hammel

 

The starters are pretty set in stone unless Shark gets traded before Opening Day.  Not a great but a solid rotation for the Cubs in 2014.

 

Bullpen

 

Jose Veras

James Russell

Pedro Strop

Arodys Vizcaino

Carlos Villanueva

Zac Rosscup

Wesley Wright

 

Bullpen has some question marks and some guys you can flip around but I think this year the Cubs going with a more balanced pen will be key. By adding Rosscup and Wright with Russell it provides them with better situation pitching.  I also feel Vizcaino will make the team out of ST and be the CL in the wings if Veras can’t hold the role all year.  Add in the long man and great teammate Villanueva plus surprise from 2013 Pedro Strop and the pen looks pretty tough.  Especially considering the depth they will have in the minors as well.

 

Starters

 

Welington Castillo

Anthony Rizzo

Darwin Barney

Starlin Castro

Mike Olt

Junior Lake

Ryan Sweeney

Nate Schierholtz

 

Again as long as Barney or an outfielder is not traded this looks the Opening Day lineup for the Cubs.  I feel pretty confident that Olt will take the 3^rd base job before ST is over with leaving Valbuena and Murphy coming off the bench.  Plus the Cubs need Olt to produce because they need a power bat in this lineup.

 

Bench

 

Justin Ruggiano

Donnie Murphy

Luis Valbeuna

George Kottaras

Josh Vitters

 

The only surprise here is Josh Vitters.  I think Ryan Kalish is a strong possibility to maybe take Vitters spot but Vitters has more power and can play 1^st and 3^rd in a pinch.  He is no longer in the “make sure he gets playing time” protection status that he was in when he was a top prospect.  They will now utilize his strength which is his bat off the bench in Chicago.

 

 

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

 

Leave Your Cult: Buy Into The Cubs Vision

It has been a while since I wrote a blog post and the reason being I have been swamped with other things.  Like welcoming our 3^rd boy to the family on New Year’s Day.  We are truly blessed to have another Cubs fan under the roof!  So the post for today is to support and go off a tweet I sent in earlier about the Cubs spending money and the direction of the team.  So here we go!

 

First off let me say losing out on Tanaka hurt me and so many other fans bad.  The Cubs had a chance to capitalize on a 25 year old righty in his prime years and lost out to the evil empire.  But I am not mad they are not spending money I am mad that they lost out on spending money on a player that can not only help now but in the future.  That is a major difference with a certain fan populous of the Chicago Cubs.  There is a certain fan base that wants the Cubs to spend money like a big market team because they are one.  Spend money to just spend money.  They like the old regime that saw a large spending spree take them to back to back playoff appearances just to fall short of the promise land.  They want action no matter who the player or what the cost.  They want the Chicago Dodgers or the Chicago Yankees but that is not what the majority of the fan base wants.  In fact that is not what Tom Ricketts, Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, or any other person wants currently in the organization.  The front office has a vision and a clear one that seems to just boggle and confuse the average “buy now, win now” fan.  But I am going to try to correct that thought and have them leave this cult that has rendered them thoughtless.

 

The Cubs are and will be more willing to spend once their current prospects prove or disprove that their hype is real.  Not all prospects make it and in fact more often than not many fail.  We have seen that first hand on the north-side with guys like David Kelton, Felix Pie, Jason Dubois, Corey Patterson, and so many others.  But we have also seen prospects like Mike Trout, Starlin Marte, David Price, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, etc… truly excel and become above average to superstar players in the MLB.  Not let us forget that for every prospect bust there is a surprise out of the bunch.  Guys like Robinson Cano and even Greg Maddux were not expect to do anything significant in the ML and look at them now.  The fact is being a prospect and depending on them is somewhat of a crapshoot but with technology and techniques in scouting used today is far superior to anything used even 5 years ago.  Plus it also helps that the Cubs have a girth of talent in the minor leagues which brings the old saying “some of them have to work out!” ring true.  Nothing supports that saying more than the release of MLB’s top 100 prospect this year that nets the Cubs 7 in the top 100 with several knocking on the door.  So once these prospects fate is known or the front office has an idea where things will shake out they will then know what hole they need to fill either through free agency, trade, or even the draft. 

 

The next question that is usually asked is “when are these prospects going to be ready?  And why don’t they give them a shot now!?”  Well, every prospects develops differently.  Some prospects get stuck like Vitters and Brett Jackson.  Some are slowed to the show because of injury which could be stated for Almora and Soler (both should be near the level of Bryant and Baez).  Some develop quickly like Bryant and Baez who could see time in 2014.  The fact is it seems to be an educated guess when they will be called up to the show.  Many suggest including myself that 2014 we could see a trickle, 2015 a lot more, and 2016 if everything goes the way it should we could see all 7 prospects in the top 100 on the Chicago Cubs roster.  So once the prospects establish themselves and if things go how most of us see them then you can expect the Cubs to start spending money on some impact free agents on the 2015 season and then spending a lot (and I mean A LOT more) before the start of the 2016 season.  This is how I see it and the direction the front office is guiding us to believe and buy into.  And I got to say it is brilliant.

 

Another thing people say that you HAVE TO sign the impact players when they are available and I tend to agree when it is a player like Tanaka.  The Cubs currently do not have a #1 on their staff and the minor leagues is weaker in the SP department.  Hence why I suggested they go to 8 years $180M offer if they had to but that is one area the FO and I disagreed but let me say it is not my money I am spending.  Tanaka was the exception and anyone like Tanaka would be an exception on this year’s team because it still falls in the vision set forth.  The Cubs have a need right now and in the future for a starting pitcher, they have the assets to acquire that pitcher, and he young.  He checked all the boxes for a player like that you do have to spend money.  A player like Robinson Cano the Cubs cannot and should not sign him.  How does signing a guy like Cano, Pujols, Hamilton, etc make sense when you possibly have a better, younger, and cheaper version of the same player knocking on the door of the major leagues?  It just does not make sense.  You only sign players to fill the holes that are not filled by young impact prospects that have good success in the Major Leagues.  This keeps the Cubs overall cost on the roster low and makes more money available for those prized free agents that will fill the needed holes in the Chicago Cubs roster.  Once again this is a brilliant vision.

 

Here is where a lot of things come together when the Cubs.  The Cubs have an outside shot to compete in 2015 and a more likely chance to compete in 2016.  Starting in 2015 I see the Cubs spending a little bit more money while in 2016 I expect them to sign impact free agents to fill those positions not filled by their current rising prospects.  Here is a peak at the potential free agents of 2015 and 2016.  Please note it is likely some of these player will sign long term extensions, get injured, or regress but just like with prospects you will have those ups and downs.  Here is the list and you be the judge why 2015/2016 look so bright.

 

Notable 2015 free agents

Hanley Ramirez

Chase Headly

Pablo Sandoval

Max Scherzer

Jon Lester

Yovani Gallardo

Justin Masterson

Colby Rasmus

Homer Bailey

 

Notable 2016 free agents

Matt Wieters

Miguel Cabrera

Justin Upton

Jason Heyward

Yoenis Cespedes

Chris Davis

Austin Jackson

David Price

Doug Fister

Mat Latos

Johnny Cueto

Brandon Morrow

Chad Billingsly

Alex Avila

Rick Procello

Sean Marshall

Jordan Zimmerman

 

So another words if pitching is what the Cubs need they can spend all their money in 2015 on a guy like Max Scherzer, Justin Masterson, or Homer Bailey.  Or if an infield does not work out in 2015 how about spending the money on a guy like Hanley Ramirez?  In 2016 let’s say the Cubs need multiple holes filled like a catcher, OF, and pitching.  How about filling those holes with Matt Weiters, Jason Heyward, and David Price?  The fact is 2015 and 2016 looms large for the Chicago Cubs as an organization.  It seems like the turning point and always has to many of us. 

 

The vision is clear, the movement is near perfection, and the process will sustain success for years to come.  The sooner you leave your “Buy Now, Win Now!” cult and accept this amazing and beautiful direction the Chicago Cubs front office is taking the team and showing us;  the sooner you can stop being upset, frustrated, and confused.

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

Hit and Run: Signees, Non-Tenders, and Trades! Oh My!

It has been a while so….

 

·         The Cubs signed Wesley Wright to an one year $1.425M deal. BleacherNation does a great job running down what he is and what he brings to the Cubs.

·         The Cubs named Eric Hinske their 1^st base coach.

·         The Cubs traded cash considerations for George Kottaras who on Monday inked an one-year 1.075M deal with them.

·         There has been a ton of talk about the Tanaka saga and posting system.  The deal includes a cap of $20 in which those who make the high cap bid all have the right to negotiate with the postee which in this case is Tanaka.  The only way this works out better for the Cubs is if the posting cap went higher than $20M.  Hard to complain about the new rules if you’re the MLB.

·         There has been plenty of weight thrown around by our friends to the east saying they may decide not to post Tanaka after all.

·         The Cubs are expected to big major players on Tanaka regardless of posting price or contract. This has been widely spread across other media outlets outside Chicago.

·         Archie Bradley is off limits to everyone for just about every player including David Price so he is not likely in Chicago.

·         Looking at the recent non-tender list I feel John Axford, Andrew Bailey,Ronald Belisario, Tommy Hanson andRyan Webb would all make solid additions to the Cubs current roster.

·         There are 5 serious suitors I see for Jeff Samardzija and below are the deals I feel are the most fair and probable for him.

1.     Blue Jays: I would love to get Aaron Sanchez but I don’t see that happening.  The deal I see is Marcus Stroman, Sean Nolin, Kyle Drabek, and Anthony Gose.  It could be a little more or a little less depending if it is just for Shark or if the Cubs throw in another piece or two.

2.     Dbacks: Forget getting Archie Bradly because it won’t happen.  I feel the Cubs could likely expand this deal to a guy like Schierholtz so I am keeping that in mind as well.  The deal I see is Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Chaffin, and Jake Barrett. If Schierholtz is involved I could see they including an Eaton or Pollock.

3.     Dodgers:  Puig is not coming and Kemp not likely either.  The deal I see is Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, and Chris Reed.  I got to admit this deal does a lot for me and it seems like something the Dodgers would pull the trigger on.

4.     Orioles: I do not see Bundy being dealt but he is not as “off-limits” as everyone thinks.  Honestly I think the Orioles deal will include Gausman as the headliner and followed by Mike Wright.  After that it drops off quite a bit.

5.     Braves:  The Braves/Shark chatter is getting louder and I am being told they are going to be major players and actually have been but it has been very much under the radar.  The Braves farm is not as good as it once was but they can certainly compete with the other 4 teams on this list.  For the Braves to be involved they will need to include Lucas Sims or Christain Bethancourt.  I am going Bethancourt because the Cubs obvious need for catching depth in the minors.  After that the Braves have some impressive arms and also keep in mind it seems like the Braves always overpay in trades (example Paul Maholm and rumored Delgado/Dempster deal).  So the deal I see is Christian Bethancourt, David Hale, Tommy La Stella, and Sean Gillmartin.  Would love this package if I was the Cubs front office.

·         Hey folks!  Our friends at CubsDenhave a awesome Winter Meeting thread going.  Check it out!

·         So Arodys Vizcaino is doing more than well in instruction league hitting 98 MPH on the guy, throwing free and easy, and with great control according to Theo Epstein.  DROOL!!

·         The Cubs are likely to make a couple of moves at the Winter Meetings but no major free agent signings because of the stage of the rebuild they are in.

·         Javier Baez will stay at SS for now reports all the Chicago media outlets but he is likely to see time at numerous positions in the Spring.

·         Moving Baez to 2b would be an easy transition says Theo if it comes to that.

·         Lots of speculation that Baez could make his Wrigley debut sometime in June.

·         No impact prospect will break the team out of Spring Training.  That prospect list does not include Mike Olt who is likely to compete for the starting job at 3^rd.

·         The Cubs radio gig is down to Ron Coomer and Todd Hollandsworth.  I really hope Hollandsworth gets the job, I am a big fan!

• The Cubs are in on both John Axford and Joba Chamberlin.

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

Two Trades & One Choice

The title pretty much explains it.  I am going to lay out 2 trade options for the Chicago Cubs based on recent rumors and talk. I will pick the one out I feel it the better of the two.  I would like to hear what you would pick (if any) and why.

Pick one of the trade choices:

Option #1

Cubs Get: Matt Wieters and Kevin Gausman
Orioles Get: Jeff Samardzija and Welington Castillo

This has been debated and talked about a lot throughout the Cubs blogs and websites the recent weeks.  It is until recently I have been really sold on this trade (thanks to @chistyle82) and it fills two needs the front office is looking for in one trade.  The Cubs are looking to get more balanced and obviously more power at the plate.  Matt Wieters definitely provides that power with popping 22 or more homers the last 3 years.  The other huge plus with Wieters is he bats from the left side of the plate and is a very solid backstop having caught 33% of base stealers in 5 seasons.  The other thing he has going is he is only 27 years old and made $5.5M last season and two years away from free agency.  The bad with Wieters is he is two years away from free agency which is the exact time the Cubs will be likely competing for the playoffs although getting him could speed up that process. The reason you can't assume (just like most would be FA) that he would sign extension it is somewhat of a risk especially with Scott Boras as his agent.  But to me the good outweigh the bad when it comes to Wieters.

The other major player in this deal is potential number 1 starter Kevin Gausman.  This guy is a game changer just check out his scouting report from Baseball Prospectus here.  That pretty much says it all and it is rumored the O's would trade Gausman for a guy like Shark.

The O's get a replacement for Wieters who has a bright future ahead of him and is cost effective which allows them some good payroll flexibility to maybe sign Shark to an extension. The O's also get a potential #2 pitcher in Jeff to really beef up their rotation.

Option #2

Cubs Get: Kyle Drabek, Sean Nolin, and Anthony Gose
Jays get: Jeff Samardzija

The Blue Jays have come out of nowhere as serious suitors for Jeff Samardzija.  Bruce Levine recently tweeted that the Jays are putting together a package of young talent for Shark.  The above trade is something that I could see the Cubs getting for in return for Shark.  I am sure the Cubs will ask for Aaron Sanchez but it is unlikely the Jays would part ways with him plus more and the Cubs need to capitalize on any Samardzija trade with near ML ready talent where Sanchez is still two years away.  So with the Jays likely unwillingness to deal Sanchez and the Cubs wanting near ML ready talent with him that does not match up.  Two other big possibilities that could replace Sean Nolin and/or Kyle Drabek is Marcus Stroman and/or Drew Hutchison. Both are quality pitchers that could easily interchange with Nolin and/or Drabek.  The reason I pick Drabek because he reminds me a lot of two other guys currently on the Cubs roster with Travis Wood and Jake Arrieta.  Guys who were former highly regarded prospects who faltered on reason or another but turned it around when given another chance.  Drabek is this guy to me.  He is 25 years old and a former top 30 prospect in 2010 and 2011 but injuries have sidelined him.  Seems like a buy low high reward guy the Cubs could really capitalize on. 

Sean Nolin to me could be the eventually the prize of this deal. While he did not fair well in his first experience in the ML he is still only 23 year old and put up beautiful minor league numbers.  Not a top 100 prospect but maybe just outside that top 100 status.  Let's not forget he is a lefty which is always a plus.

The 3rd bonus item in this deal is Anthony Gose who himself was a top 50 prospect in 2012 and seems to be putting stuff together. His glove and arm in CF is major league ready and he brings speed to a lineup that is much needed posting 126 steals in the past 3 season in the minors.  He brings in the coveted helps the now and the future at only being 23 as well.

The Jays are always looking to get better and their GM has a history for flare in trades so getting a guy like Jeff Samardzija to his rotation makes a lot of sense.  The Jays are in win now mode and cannot wait to see if the guys they are trading will work out or not.


My Pick:  These two trades are very different but that is what makes them so appealing to me.  One trade has the Cubs getting a potential #1 pitcher in Gausman and a solid ML tested and proven backstop in Wieters.  The Orioles trade is more of a speed up process trade but the quantity of return is down plus the Cubs could risk losing Wieters in two years when they start competing.  The trade with the Jays does not have a clear cut #1 pitcher in the mix but the potential is there.  They do get quantity I this trade which stacks the farm again.  In the end I do the trade with the Orioles because it gives the Cubs the left-handed power bat behind the plate plus a potential ACE that could be the opening day starter next season in Gausman.

So what would you pick and why?

Special Shout Out to @Chistyle82 on twitter.  Give him a follow for good Cubs talk!

Cubs Hit & Run

Early morning quick hits-

-  The Cubs have signed Walter Ibarra, Eli Whiteside, and Aaron Cunningham to minor league deals.

-  The Cubs have interest in bringing in an experienced back up catcher to mentor Castillo.  They have been linked to Kurt Suzuki, Jose Molina, and Humberto Quintero.  There has been chatter about John Buck as well.

-  Jim Bowden says the Cubs are shopping Edwin Jackson because of the crazy priced pitching market and Edwin Jackson's now nice looking front loaded contract.  The Cubs could trade both Shark and Jackson during the Winter Meetings.

-  The Cubs have various degrees of interest in pitchers Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, and Scott Kazmir.

-  CubsDen.com is saying the Cubs could target Logan Morrison from the Marlins.  Fantastic idea in a buy low player with a high ceiling. 

-  Another player that is being tossed around is Nate McClouth.

-  Some bounced back guys (or lower tier) that the Cubs have had internal discussions about are Roy Halladay, Kevin Youkilis, Jeff Baker, CF Chris Young, and Grady Sizemore.

-  Curtis Granderson recently said he has interest in coming home to Chicago. If the price is right a reunion is possible.

-  Kris Bryant was named AFL MVP.

-  Renteria coaching staff should be announced early next week with Mariano Duncan, Bill Mueller, Henry Blanco, Alex Cora, Mike Borzello, Gary Jones, and Bruce Fields rumored as possiable coaches. 

-  The Cubs are already expected to bring back Bosio and Strode.

-  The Diamondbacks interest in Nate  Schierholtz is significant I am told.  They could part with Eaton or Pollock in an even swap.  Parra looks to be off the board.

-  The Pirates remain interested in Schierholtz but only as a back up option because they may trade for a big bat.

-  The Dodgers have interest in Starlin Castro.  They could dangle Zach Lee and Joc Pederson in a deal for him.

-  Jeff Samardzija will be shopped aggressively between now until the start of the season unless they can work out an extension.  The Cubs remain interested in signing him long term but a major sticking point is the NTC.  The FO will not give those out.

-  The Cubs could check on Corey Hart if his market remains weak.

-  There is still mutual interest between Scott Baker and the Cubs.

Until Next Time...

My Top 50 MLB Free Agent Predictions!

Special shout out to MLBTRADERUMORS.com for putting together their list of top 50 MLB free agent predictions.  They have inspired me to come up with my TOP 50 MLB Free Agent Predictions as well.  So read, discuss, and enjoy!!!!

 

 

Quick Hits: Coaching Staff, Non-Tender, and More...

Quick Hits… maybe a bit slower than usual-

 

·         Rick Renteria is the new manager of the Chicago Cubs signing a 3 year deal with 2 option years.

·         The Cubs signed OF Aaron Cunningham to a minor league deal.  You can see Aaron’s stats here.  Could be a nice bargain or platoon player if he makes a splash in Spring Training.

·         Cubs Den lays out 5 starting pitchers the Cubs should consider.  Love the list and would approve of any especially Tanaka and Johnson.  But there is one pitcher I would like to add to his list; Roy Halladay.  Doc maybe coming at a discount because of his age and declining numbers but he is worth the gamble for sure.  He can look to increase his value on a non-contender like the Cubs and end up with the fate of so many other pitchers over the past 2 years.  Get dealt to a contender at the deadline. Amazinavenue does a great run down of Roy Halladay for the Mets.  Which tells me how does he not fit for the Cubs?

·         MLBTR.com last out some non-tender candidates which has Darwin Barney, Mat Gamel, and Daniel Bard as the only Cubs on the list.  Bard and Gamel are very possible but Barney has good trade value as a defensive minded middle infielder.  No way Barney is non-tendered.

·         In that same post atMlbtraderumors.com they have some names that if they are non-tendered could interest the Cubs like OF John Mayberry, OF Nolan Reimold, OFJustin Ruggiano, OF Travis Snider, OFDrew Stubbs, P John Axford, PTommy Hanson, P Daniel Hudson, and P Jonny Venters.

·         Bosio will be back on a two year deal on Renteria’s new coaching staff.

·         If you combined the story put out by Chris De Luca and the tweet from Bruce Levine you pretty much have the new Cubs coaching staff filled up.  De Luca says A.J. Hinch is a strong possibility as a bench coach on Renteria staff.  He says the relationship between the front office and Renteria is really good.  Where Levine states Mariano Duncan, Alex Cora, and Henry Blanco are favorites for his staff as well.  So the way I see it right now is Hinch as Bench Coach, Mariano Duncan as Hitting Coach, Chris Bosio at Pitching Coach, Alex Cora as either 1^st or 3^rd base coach, and Hank White as Bullpen Coach.  That basically leaves one position left open which I would love to be reserved for Ozzie Guillen but it won’t happen.

·         Keith Moreland is leaving the Cubs radio booth and my favorites to replace him start in this order: Mark Grace, Doug Glanville, Todd Hollandsworth, Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, and then David Kaplan.

 

Until Next Time….

 

 

 

Trade for Giancarlo Stanton

The title says it all.  While the rumors are circulating about Castro being traded I believe the Cubs need and should shift focus to dealing for an impact offensive player and not dealing away one.  Giancarlo Stanton will likely be the hottest and sought after name if he is actually put on the trading block.  All the signs are pointing that he will be shopped this off-season and some rumors have the Fish looking for young impact major league or near major league pitching to go pair with Jose Fernandez.  A name being tossed around is Garrit Cole of the Pirates but the Bucs maybe reluctant to pay such a big price let alone build a package around Cole for just Stanton.  This kind of scenario may just benefit the Cubs in a huge way because not only do the Cubs have an impact big league pitcher with a young arm still under contract for 2 years but they have a nice depth of prospects that could go along with to sweeten the deal.  But lets not get to ahead of ourselves.


So I ask why pay the large price for Giancarlo Stanton?

Giancarlo Stanton is a freak of nature standing at 6 foot 6 250 lbs at the ripe age of 23 makes him intriguing enough to call on.  But if you add that last season in just 116 games he had .365 OBP (ranked 27th), 24 homers (ranked 31st), and .845 OPS (ranked 24th) all on a bad team, in a pitcher friendly park, in somewhat of a down year, and a guy who is not even eligible for free agency until 2017 then you have a guy that you pay a hefty price for.   The dynamic marketing ability that Stanton brings along with his youth, yet experience in the ML, is almost unmatched around baseball.  He brings the youth, affordability, and impact talent the front office of any team drools over.  The fact is the Cubs do have a lot of offensive fire power coming through the minor leagues but adding Stanton to this current ML would be a much needed move now and also toward the future.  Lets face some realism here; not all prospects are going to turn out stars in the Cubs system.  Adding an All-Star to the Cubs current OF for the present and future lessens the sting if a prospect does not develop like they should or ends up a bust.  Ginacarlo Stanton is the player the Cubs need.


What about the concerns?

Of course with any player you are going to have concerns and Stanton is no different. The fact is Giancarlo Stanton has never played a full season in the ML due to being banged up or needing extended time off.  He has been on the DL or missed extended time with injuries or soreness to his knees, shoulder, back, and hamstrings.  That is a major concern for a guy who is only 23 years old but could it be corrected getting him away from playing 82 games on that artificial surface in Miami?  Who knows.  The good thing that while it is a major concern it is really the only concern.


The talent to give up for Giancarlo Stanton?

I could put this in the concern category but with any trade you make there will be some concerns so it is a moot point.  I believe the Fish will only deal Stanton for a mixture of young prospect and near major league (or major league talent).  I think acquiring a pitcher with front line ability to go along with Jose Feranadez will be there major focus which is extremely valuable right now in the current market.  As far as what the Cubs have to offer and willing to offer for Stanton is basically the same thing.  I do not think the Cubs front office will even think about trading Baez or Bryant because they would be creating a huge hole by acquiring Stanton.  I also feel bigger contract players like Castro and Rizzo are not likely to be dealt.  I think the most likely player the Cubs will be willing to part with and that would interest the Fish would start with Jeff Samardzija.  Although older than a prospect pitcher he has a lot of youth in his arm.  He provides the Marlins a nice one-two punch with Fernandez for at least two more seasons at an affordable rate.  After those two years are up the Marlins top talent should be major league ready and they could be looking to add more impact players for a playoff run which likely would include extending Shark.  Oddly enough it is the very situation the Cubs are currently in with Shark but acquiring Smardijza plus some for Stanton is enough to really spark the interest of the Marlins front office.

So if I feel Samardzija is the headliner of this deal then the rest of the package has to be lower talent? Right? Well... wrong!  Stanton for Samardzija plus some mid-level prospects are not going to cut it when you hear names like Jurickson Profar, Garrit Cole, and Oscar Taveras associated with Stanton in trade rumors.  I believe the Cubs will have to include one of Albert Almora or Jorge Soler to go along with Shark to keep the Marlins interest and the Cubs in the running for Stanton. 


So what about getting more of what the Cubs need?  Like....Lets say... PITCHING!!!!

I know one of the main reasons Theo and Co. will trade Samardizja is to acquire more young impact pitching that will be ready for the big playoff push which could likely start in 2015.  I think the Cubs can still get this in a deal with the Marlins that include Giancarlo Stanton.  Think I am on some illegal substance????  No way!  Say no to drugs and stay with me here!  I think if the Cubs front office is willing to add more players to the deal they can get that young pitching they covet in a deal for Samardizja.

Players like Welington Castillo, Arismendy Alcantara, Dan Vogelbach, Jeimer Candelario, Mike Olt, Dillion Maples, and Christian Villanueva could all be part of a package to get pitching prospect in return in a Stanton deal.  Most of you will see this as selling the farm but I am seeing this as dealing surplus to fill needs within the Cubs organization. Plus they won't deal all the players I have listed.

There are obviously more players within the Cubs farm system the Fish will covet that I do not have listed but Welington Castillo, Arismendy Alacantra, and Dan Vogelbach are 3 players I can see major interest from both parties.  Castillo has already been the subject of the early rumor mill given the fact the front office wanting to have a more balanced lineup.  Obviously dealing Castillo would leave a huge hole but cathers like Brian McCann (hit lefty) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (switch hitter) both are free agents and both have been linked to the Cubs already.  Arismendy Alacantra is a high prospect in his own right.  He is constantly ranked in the top 6 in the Cubs organization prospect rankings and is getting a lot of love from scouts right now.  He is a natural SS but handles 2b really well.  He again is depth on the Cubs prospect list crowded with infielders so he is expendable.  Dan Vogelbach also has the same fate as AA.  He is currently blocked by Rizzo (who is not going anywhere) and unless the DH comes to the NL then he has no place to play.  I believe if the Cubs add two of Castillo, Alacantra, and Vogelbach along with one of Soler or Almora plus Samardzija the package coming back to Chicago would be quite handsome.


So if the Cubs dealt Samardzija, Soler, Alacantra, and Vogelbach what could they get back from the Marlins?

Well first off I know they could acquire Giancarlo Stanton with that package but obviously the Cubs would get more in return. I believe the Cubs could get 2 of the following players in return plus Stanton for this package:

Andrew Heaney:  22 year old lefty with good stuff and ranked 43rd best prospect and 1st overall in the Marlins organization by Baseball America. See his scouting report here.

Justin Nicolino:  21 year old lefty ranked 86th best prospect in 2013 and 4 best in the Marlins Organization by BA. See his scouting report  here.

Anthony DeSclafani:  23 year old righty who was not ranked in the top 100 prospect list but is moving up the ranks.  First drafted by the Red Sox in 2008 so the interest is obviously there.  See his stats here.

Brian Flynn: 23 year old lefty who had a taste of the ML last season.  he is not ranked in the top 100 prospects list but is a very quality pitcher.  See his stats here.

Grant Dayton: 25 year old lefty who is a little old and over AA right now. He gets overlooked quite a bit but I love his make-up. See his stats here.

Jacob Turner: 22 year old Jacob Turner was once a top 25 prospect with the Tigers organization but has dropped some in the eyes of scouts.  He reminds me of when the Cubs traded for Travis Wood although Turner's numbers do look better and maybe more valued.  You can see his stats here.

I feel the Cubs could get any two of these players plus Stanton if they included the package of Shark, Soler, Alacantra, and Vogelbach with one exception.  I doubt they could get Stanton, Turner, and Heaney for this package.  It would likely have to be one or the other in respect to Turner and Heaney.


Conclusion:

I feel the Cubs would benefit from acquiring Giancarlo Stanton and all the pros of dealing for him out weigh the cons.  I also believe the Cubs and Fish will extend the deal to prospects so the Marlins can get more high impact young positional talent while the Cubs get more impact talent on the mound.  After much discussion and research I see the trade playing out like this:

Cubs get: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony DeSclafani.
Marlins get: Jeff Samardzija, Jorge Soler, Arismendy Alacantra, and Dan Vogelbach.

This deal benefits all and I feel this a very even trade.  Feel free to discuss, argue, and evaluate! 


Until Next Time...

Why is Torey Lovullo the Right Guy?

5 Reason why I think Torey Lovullo is the guy…

 

1.     The connection to Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox:  Lovullo previously worked under Theo Epstein as the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009 where admiration is plainly seen in the following quote:

 

My allegiance is to this group that’s been together for a long time,” said Lovullo. “I understand how the association happens because of Theo’s connection to the Red Sox and me being here when Theo was here. I think we have a mutual respect for one another. But we were on two different levels. He was at the big league level and I was in player development. I respected everything that the big league level stood for. There [were] no barriers between the front office and the manager, there was no disconnect with player development, and I know in time with that guy that sits in that seat there [in Chicago] with Theo that it’s going to be a pretty special relationship.”

 

2.     Minor League development:  He has spent 4 years in the minor leagues as a manager of the Buffalo Bison, Columbus Clippers, and Pawtucket Red Sox.  Anyone who spent time in the coaching leagues of the Indians and Red Sox farm system for a number of years deserves a look.  Both were ahead of the game when it came to advance statistics.  Not only that but both farm systems are usually full of talented players.  The Cubs in their own right have a large quantity of quality impact prospects that are likely to see the major leagues in the coming years.  Having a minor league manager with 4 years of experience in that capacity managing at the major league level is a huge asset for the Cubs prospects.

 

3.     Advance Statistics and Unified Vision:  By far the biggest asset that Torey Lovullo has is his knowledge and use of advance statistics which is outline perfectly in this fangraphsarticle.  It is essential and probably the most important thing to have the same vision as everyone in the organization from the 3^rd base coach of Bosie to the owner of the Cubs Tom Ricketts.  That is something that was lacking with the Chicago Cubs coaching staff the previous two years under Sveum and something that is essential through this hire.  Torey Lovullo is a slam dunk here and that is what Epstein needs.

 

4.     Major League coaching experience:  It is becoming more apparent that the Cubs front office is less worried about Major League managing experience and maybe more inclined to take someone with ML coaching experience instead.  Out of the 7 rumored candidates only Wedge, Hinch, and Acta had major league managing experience and only Wedge and Hinch are left as finalist for the Cubs job.  Whereas Renteria, Martinez, and Lovullo have no ML managing experience but plenty of coaching experience at the ML level and only Lovullo and Renteria are left.  The fact that Lovullo has worked on two high profiled coaching staff being the 1^st base coach of the Jays and bench coach of the Red Sox bodes well for Torey.  Having experience in the environment of big market teams puts him ahead of a guy like Renteria.

 

5.     His potential coaching staff:  To me when you talk about managers they are only as good as their coaching staff which again is a plus for Lovullo.  The connections he has made throughout his coaching and playing career has tea leaves leading us to some pretty impressive candidates for his staff like Sandy Alomar Jr., Alex Cora, and Brian Butterfield.  I talked about this at length here.

 

For these 5 reasons I believe Torey Lovullo would and will become the new manager of the Chicago Cubs….

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

Taking Shape: The Cubs New Manager & Coaching Staff

I see things really lining up right now in the Cubs manager search and all things point toward Torey Lovullo which just happens to be my top pick for manager.  Lovullo during his playing career played all over the infield for 7 different ML teams that included playing with previous managerial candidate Sandy Alomar Jr. but we will get back to that.  In 2001 he broke into coaching as a roving coordinator with the Indians but in 2006 he became manager of the Buffalo Bison (changed locations in 2008 to Columbus and became the Clippers) which is a AAA affiliate of the Cleveland Indians.  For the 2010 season Lovullo became the manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox where he learned a lot but struggled with a 66-78 record and failed to make the playoffs.  But regardless of record; in 2011 John Farrell named Lovullo 1^stbase coach on his staff where he served for two season.  Lovullo then moved with Farrell to Boston but getting promoted to bench coach which is his position right now.  Lovullo is a great communicator, really baseball smart, and a big user of advanced statistics.  All which is shown in this Q/A with fangraphs found here.

 

To me Torey Lovullo is a slam dunk and a better candidate than Rick Renteria, Manny Acta, AJ Hinch, Mike Maddux, and Dave Martinez.  I think he is head and shoulders above them for various reasons stemming from working on developing players, coaching in big organizations like the Indians, Blue Jays, and now Red Sox, his alignment and philosophy on the usage of advance statistics, and compatibility with the Cubs current front office.  But what may make him a better pick is his coaching staff if he gets hired. Which if you read some links and tea leaves it is not hard to see some clear cut favorites for his staff. 

 

Let’s take a look at some candidates, their resumes, and my prediction on who will be on his coaching staff.

 

Brian Butterfield

 

A likely guy to be on his staff and could be managerial candidate in his own right.  Butterfield currently is the 3^rd base coach for the Red Sox and Lovullo talks highly about him in the fangraphs Q/A especially in regards to defensive shifting.  But he does not have to say much because his experience speaks for itself.  He spent 5 years as a coach of the Arizona Diamondbacks.  He also was a minor league manager in the Yankees organization and the Columbus Clippers.  He then joined another big market team in the Blue Jays in 2002 until the end of the 2012 season.  Then as you can guess he moved to Boston as a 3^rd base coach under Farrell.  Some perks of Butterfield is that he has a great reputation throughout baseball as a defensive genius where people like Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill, and Brett Lawrie have give him credit for their defensive abilities and achievements.  Lawrie is known as one of the best defensive 3^rdbaseman in the game. Hill is an above average 2^nd baseman, and Orlando Hudson is one of the best defensive 2^nd baseman in the past 10 years winning Gold Gloves in 2005 and 2006.  He is clearly a favorite to join Lovullo on this staff maybe even as bench coach.  Although he could fill in as bench coach on John Farrell staff if Lovullo leaves.

 

Sandy Alomar Jr.

 

He is a less obvious fit but he does have a relationship with Torey Lovullo in Cleveland both during the playing and coaching days.  Although the overlapping is obvious if you look at both their careers; assuming they have a relationship is a stretch.  But after talking to a couple of sources I have confirmed that Lovullo and Alomar Jr. both have great respect for one another, expressed interest in working together, and a spot on his team (even as bench coach) is likely.  It is also stated that Theo and Co. like the idea of a Latin influence on this team and Alomar would provide that along with the reputation of a good communicator, teacher, and youth developer. 

 

Joey Cora

 

Another smart baseball guy who is looking for a spot on a coaching staff and he should be able to find one in Chicago.  It is rumored that the front office will strongly recommend Cora for the new managers staff.  Cora has a great relationship with the Red Sox front office and has experience coaching under Ozzie Guillen which regardless of what people say is a plus. Again the Cubs want a Latin influence on this team with the amount of talent is coming up which he also provides.  I could see Cora as a base coach on the new coaching staff.

 

Bill Buckner

 

He is the most likely candidate to be promoted within the Cubs organization to the parent club.  Bill Buckner is gaining a lot of steam around baseball as a good hitting coach and young talent developer.  He has high praise from several prospects in the Cubs system as well as the front offices stamp of approval.  He will also likely be a strong recommendation from the front office to the new manager.  Plus the former Cub factor does not hurt at all.  I see him as the new hitting coach on Torey Lovullo staff.

 

Dave McKay

 

He worked wonders with Alfonso Soriano and has great respect around the game.  Again he will be another suggestion for the Cubs new manager.  This one I am less confident on than the previous suggestions because the new manager has to have some say with his staff.  But because of his experience around baseball and with this team I think he is a perfect candidate for 1^st base coach again for 2014.

 

Chris Bosio

 

I am even less confident about Chris Bosio.  Although I think he did a remarkable job with the Cubs pitching staff the two years he was here the manager almost always dictates the pitching coach.  Lovullo has no prior relationship with Bosio and I am not so sure the Cubs front office would want any more ties to the last managing regime.  Kind of a toss up but I still think it is possible.  I really do not have a grasp on any other pitching coaches that Lovullo has deep connections to.

 

Derek Johnson

 

He is my wildcard on this coaching staff.  He is currently in the Cubs system as the minor league pitching coordinator.  Prior to that he spent 11 season at the Vanderbilt’s pitching/head coach where he earned National Pitching Coach of the Year in 2004 and National Assistant Coach of the Year in 2010.  Derek Johnson developed 6 big name first round draft picks named David Price, Mike Minor, Sonny Gray, Casey Weathers, Grayson Garvin, and Jeremy Sowers.  He has been a wizard with young pitchers and it known to get out the most of what he has to work with.  I am not sure if the Cubs front office would recommend or push for his hiring, if Derek would leave his position as minor league pitching coordinator, or if Theo would want to have him at the Major League level.  But one thing is for sure he would be a huge asset to this coaching staff for his knowledge and development.  For that he has to be at least a guy who will get a look.

 

 

 

Other Coaches

 

Assistant Hitting Coach:  I am unsure if the Cubs will go this route this time around but I would not be surprised if they did.  Not sure who really fits the bill here but Mariano Duncan would make a great assistant hitting coach (or just hitting coach for that matter) although I am not sure they will want to deplete their farm of the two best hitting coaches going to the parent club.  So in the end I feel this is an Unknown.

 

Bullpen Coach/Bullpen Catcher:  I think the Cubs should go with a former/current catcher as the bullpen coach and not a former pitcher.  I think the Cubs should hire Henry Blanco as bullpen coach.  There has been numerous GMs and media outlets including Jim Hendry and Bruce Levine that stated he would be a great coach/manager one day.  So why not bring back Greg Maddux’s personal catcher in as the bullpen coach.  I think he would do a wonderful job with the bullpen and also the Cubs would have a veteran defensive catcher that could be a mentor to Wellington Castillo (if he is not traded) to go along with Alomar.  In the end this is a big unknown but I am pretty fond of Hank White.

 

 

In the end the 2014 managerial staff will look like this:

 

Manager: Torey Lovullo

Bench Coach: Sandy Alomar Jr.

Pitching Coach: Unknown

Hitting Coach: Bill Buckner

Assistant Hitting Coach: Unknown

3^rd base Coach: Brian Butterfield

1^st base Coach: Joey Cora

Bullpen Coach: Unknown

 

 

In the end I think the Cubs front office and new manager will cut the ties to what was known as the “Dale Sveum” era. I also think Theo and Co. will get at least two of their recommendations on this coaching staff with Joey Cora and Bill Buckner. I think this is a very solid staff and the making of something really special on the north side.

 

Until Next Time..