The title says it all. While the rumors are circulating about Castro being traded I believe the Cubs need and should shift focus to dealing for an impact offensive player and not dealing away one. Giancarlo Stanton will likely be the hottest and sought after name if he is actually put on the trading block. All the signs are pointing that he will be shopped this off-season and some rumors have the Fish looking for young impact major league or near major league pitching to go pair with Jose Fernandez. A name being tossed around is Garrit Cole of the Pirates but the Bucs maybe reluctant to pay such a big price let alone build a package around Cole for just Stanton. This kind of scenario may just benefit the Cubs in a huge way because not only do the Cubs have an impact big league pitcher with a young arm still under contract for 2 years but they have a nice depth of prospects that could go along with to sweeten the deal. But lets not get to ahead of ourselves.
So I ask why pay the large price for Giancarlo Stanton?
Giancarlo Stanton is a freak of nature standing at 6 foot 6 250 lbs at the ripe age of 23 makes him intriguing enough to call on. But if you add that last season in just 116 games he had .365 OBP (ranked 27th), 24 homers (ranked 31st), and .845 OPS (ranked 24th) all on a bad team, in a pitcher friendly park, in somewhat of a down year, and a guy who is not even eligible for free agency until 2017 then you have a guy that you pay a hefty price for. The dynamic marketing ability that Stanton brings along with his youth, yet experience in the ML, is almost unmatched around baseball. He brings the youth, affordability, and impact talent the front office of any team drools over. The fact is the Cubs do have a lot of offensive fire power coming through the minor leagues but adding Stanton to this current ML would be a much needed move now and also toward the future. Lets face some realism here; not all prospects are going to turn out stars in the Cubs system. Adding an All-Star to the Cubs current OF for the present and future lessens the sting if a prospect does not develop like they should or ends up a bust. Ginacarlo Stanton is the player the Cubs need.
What about the concerns?
Of course with any player you are going to have concerns and Stanton is no different. The fact is Giancarlo Stanton has never played a full season in the ML due to being banged up or needing extended time off. He has been on the DL or missed extended time with injuries or soreness to his knees, shoulder, back, and hamstrings. That is a major concern for a guy who is only 23 years old but could it be corrected getting him away from playing 82 games on that artificial surface in Miami? Who knows. The good thing that while it is a major concern it is really the only concern.
The talent to give up for Giancarlo Stanton?
I could put this in the concern category but with any trade you make there will be some concerns so it is a moot point. I believe the Fish will only deal Stanton for a mixture of young prospect and near major league (or major league talent). I think acquiring a pitcher with front line ability to go along with Jose Feranadez will be there major focus which is extremely valuable right now in the current market. As far as what the Cubs have to offer and willing to offer for Stanton is basically the same thing. I do not think the Cubs front office will even think about trading Baez or Bryant because they would be creating a huge hole by acquiring Stanton. I also feel bigger contract players like Castro and Rizzo are not likely to be dealt. I think the most likely player the Cubs will be willing to part with and that would interest the Fish would start with Jeff Samardzija. Although older than a prospect pitcher he has a lot of youth in his arm. He provides the Marlins a nice one-two punch with Fernandez for at least two more seasons at an affordable rate. After those two years are up the Marlins top talent should be major league ready and they could be looking to add more impact players for a playoff run which likely would include extending Shark. Oddly enough it is the very situation the Cubs are currently in with Shark but acquiring Smardijza plus some for Stanton is enough to really spark the interest of the Marlins front office.
So if I feel Samardzija is the headliner of this deal then the rest of the package has to be lower talent? Right? Well... wrong! Stanton for Samardzija plus some mid-level prospects are not going to cut it when you hear names like Jurickson Profar, Garrit Cole, and Oscar Taveras associated with Stanton in trade rumors. I believe the Cubs will have to include one of Albert Almora or Jorge Soler to go along with Shark to keep the Marlins interest and the Cubs in the running for Stanton.
So what about getting more of what the Cubs need? Like....Lets say... PITCHING!!!!
I know one of the main reasons Theo and Co. will trade Samardizja is to acquire more young impact pitching that will be ready for the big playoff push which could likely start in 2015. I think the Cubs can still get this in a deal with the Marlins that include Giancarlo Stanton. Think I am on some illegal substance???? No way! Say no to drugs and stay with me here! I think if the Cubs front office is willing to add more players to the deal they can get that young pitching they covet in a deal for Samardizja.
Players like Welington Castillo, Arismendy Alcantara, Dan Vogelbach, Jeimer Candelario, Mike Olt, Dillion Maples, and Christian Villanueva could all be part of a package to get pitching prospect in return in a Stanton deal. Most of you will see this as selling the farm but I am seeing this as dealing surplus to fill needs within the Cubs organization. Plus they won't deal all the players I have listed.
There are obviously more players within the Cubs farm system the Fish will covet that I do not have listed but Welington Castillo, Arismendy Alacantra, and Dan Vogelbach are 3 players I can see major interest from both parties. Castillo has already been the subject of the early rumor mill given the fact the front office wanting to have a more balanced lineup. Obviously dealing Castillo would leave a huge hole but cathers like Brian McCann (hit lefty) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (switch hitter) both are free agents and both have been linked to the Cubs already. Arismendy Alacantra is a high prospect in his own right. He is constantly ranked in the top 6 in the Cubs organization prospect rankings and is getting a lot of love from scouts right now. He is a natural SS but handles 2b really well. He again is depth on the Cubs prospect list crowded with infielders so he is expendable. Dan Vogelbach also has the same fate as AA. He is currently blocked by Rizzo (who is not going anywhere) and unless the DH comes to the NL then he has no place to play. I believe if the Cubs add two of Castillo, Alacantra, and Vogelbach along with one of Soler or Almora plus Samardzija the package coming back to Chicago would be quite handsome.
So if the Cubs dealt Samardzija, Soler, Alacantra, and Vogelbach what could they get back from the Marlins?
Well first off I know they could acquire Giancarlo Stanton with that package but obviously the Cubs would get more in return. I believe the Cubs could get 2 of the following players in return plus Stanton for this package:
Andrew Heaney: 22 year old lefty with good stuff and ranked 43rd best prospect and 1st overall in the Marlins organization by Baseball America. See his scouting report here.
Justin Nicolino: 21 year old lefty ranked 86th best prospect in 2013 and 4 best in the Marlins Organization by BA. See his scouting report here.
Anthony DeSclafani: 23 year old righty who was not ranked in the top 100 prospect list but is moving up the ranks. First drafted by the Red Sox in 2008 so the interest is obviously there. See his stats here.
Brian Flynn: 23 year old lefty who had a taste of the ML last season. he is not ranked in the top 100 prospects list but is a very quality pitcher. See his stats here.
Grant Dayton: 25 year old lefty who is a little old and over AA right now. He gets overlooked quite a bit but I love his make-up. See his stats here.
Jacob Turner: 22 year old Jacob Turner was once a top 25 prospect with the Tigers organization but has dropped some in the eyes of scouts. He reminds me of when the Cubs traded for Travis Wood although Turner's numbers do look better and maybe more valued. You can see his stats here.
I feel the Cubs could get any two of these players plus Stanton if they included the package of Shark, Soler, Alacantra, and Vogelbach with one exception. I doubt they could get Stanton, Turner, and Heaney for this package. It would likely have to be one or the other in respect to Turner and Heaney.
Conclusion:
I feel the Cubs would benefit from acquiring Giancarlo Stanton and all the pros of dealing for him out weigh the cons. I also believe the Cubs and Fish will extend the deal to prospects so the Marlins can get more high impact young positional talent while the Cubs get more impact talent on the mound. After much discussion and research I see the trade playing out like this:
Cubs get: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony DeSclafani.
Marlins get: Jeff Samardzija, Jorge Soler, Arismendy Alacantra, and Dan Vogelbach.
This deal benefits all and I feel this a very even trade. Feel free to discuss, argue, and evaluate!
Until Next Time...
Saturday, November 02, 2013
Monday, October 28, 2013
Why is Torey Lovullo the Right Guy?
5 Reason why I think Torey Lovullo is the guy…
1. The connection to Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox: Lovullo previously worked under Theo Epstein as the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009 where admiration is plainly seen in the following quote:
My allegiance is to this group that’s been together for a long time,” said Lovullo. “I understand how the association happens because of Theo’s connection to the Red Sox and me being here when Theo was here. I think we have a mutual respect for one another. But we were on two different levels. He was at the big league level and I was in player development. I respected everything that the big league level stood for. There [were] no barriers between the front office and the manager, there was no disconnect with player development, and I know in time with that guy that sits in that seat there [in Chicago] with Theo that it’s going to be a pretty special relationship.”
2. Minor League development: He has spent 4 years in the minor leagues as a manager of the Buffalo Bison, Columbus Clippers, and Pawtucket Red Sox. Anyone who spent time in the coaching leagues of the Indians and Red Sox farm system for a number of years deserves a look. Both were ahead of the game when it came to advance statistics. Not only that but both farm systems are usually full of talented players. The Cubs in their own right have a large quantity of quality impact prospects that are likely to see the major leagues in the coming years. Having a minor league manager with 4 years of experience in that capacity managing at the major league level is a huge asset for the Cubs prospects.
3. Advance Statistics and Unified Vision: By far the biggest asset that Torey Lovullo has is his knowledge and use of advance statistics which is outline perfectly in this fangraphsarticle. It is essential and probably the most important thing to have the same vision as everyone in the organization from the 3rd base coach of Bosie to the owner of the Cubs Tom Ricketts. That is something that was lacking with the Chicago Cubs coaching staff the previous two years under Sveum and something that is essential through this hire. Torey Lovullo is a slam dunk here and that is what Epstein needs.
4. Major League coaching experience: It is becoming more apparent that the Cubs front office is less worried about Major League managing experience and maybe more inclined to take someone with ML coaching experience instead. Out of the 7 rumored candidates only Wedge, Hinch, and Acta had major league managing experience and only Wedge and Hinch are left as finalist for the Cubs job. Whereas Renteria, Martinez, and Lovullo have no ML managing experience but plenty of coaching experience at the ML level and only Lovullo and Renteria are left. The fact that Lovullo has worked on two high profiled coaching staff being the 1st base coach of the Jays and bench coach of the Red Sox bodes well for Torey. Having experience in the environment of big market teams puts him ahead of a guy like Renteria.
5. His potential coaching staff: To me when you talk about managers they are only as good as their coaching staff which again is a plus for Lovullo. The connections he has made throughout his coaching and playing career has tea leaves leading us to some pretty impressive candidates for his staff like Sandy Alomar Jr., Alex Cora, and Brian Butterfield. I talked about this at length here.
For these 5 reasons I believe Torey Lovullo would and will become the new manager of the Chicago Cubs….
Until Next Time…
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Taking Shape: The Cubs New Manager & Coaching Staff
I see things really lining up right now in the Cubs manager search and all things point toward Torey Lovullo which just happens to be my top pick for manager. Lovullo during his playing career played all over the infield for 7 different ML teams that included playing with previous managerial candidate Sandy Alomar Jr. but we will get back to that. In 2001 he broke into coaching as a roving coordinator with the Indians but in 2006 he became manager of the Buffalo Bison (changed locations in 2008 to Columbus and became the Clippers) which is a AAA affiliate of the Cleveland Indians. For the 2010 season Lovullo became the manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox where he learned a lot but struggled with a 66-78 record and failed to make the playoffs. But regardless of record; in 2011 John Farrell named Lovullo 1stbase coach on his staff where he served for two season. Lovullo then moved with Farrell to Boston but getting promoted to bench coach which is his position right now. Lovullo is a great communicator, really baseball smart, and a big user of advanced statistics. All which is shown in this Q/A with fangraphs found here.
To me Torey Lovullo is a slam dunk and a better candidate than Rick Renteria, Manny Acta, AJ Hinch, Mike Maddux, and Dave Martinez. I think he is head and shoulders above them for various reasons stemming from working on developing players, coaching in big organizations like the Indians, Blue Jays, and now Red Sox, his alignment and philosophy on the usage of advance statistics, and compatibility with the Cubs current front office. But what may make him a better pick is his coaching staff if he gets hired. Which if you read some links and tea leaves it is not hard to see some clear cut favorites for his staff.
Let’s take a look at some candidates, their resumes, and my prediction on who will be on his coaching staff.
Brian Butterfield
A likely guy to be on his staff and could be managerial candidate in his own right. Butterfield currently is the 3rd base coach for the Red Sox and Lovullo talks highly about him in the fangraphs Q/A especially in regards to defensive shifting. But he does not have to say much because his experience speaks for itself. He spent 5 years as a coach of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He also was a minor league manager in the Yankees organization and the Columbus Clippers. He then joined another big market team in the Blue Jays in 2002 until the end of the 2012 season. Then as you can guess he moved to Boston as a 3rd base coach under Farrell. Some perks of Butterfield is that he has a great reputation throughout baseball as a defensive genius where people like Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill, and Brett Lawrie have give him credit for their defensive abilities and achievements. Lawrie is known as one of the best defensive 3rdbaseman in the game. Hill is an above average 2nd baseman, and Orlando Hudson is one of the best defensive 2nd baseman in the past 10 years winning Gold Gloves in 2005 and 2006. He is clearly a favorite to join Lovullo on this staff maybe even as bench coach. Although he could fill in as bench coach on John Farrell staff if Lovullo leaves.
Sandy Alomar Jr.
He is a less obvious fit but he does have a relationship with Torey Lovullo in Cleveland both during the playing and coaching days. Although the overlapping is obvious if you look at both their careers; assuming they have a relationship is a stretch. But after talking to a couple of sources I have confirmed that Lovullo and Alomar Jr. both have great respect for one another, expressed interest in working together, and a spot on his team (even as bench coach) is likely. It is also stated that Theo and Co. like the idea of a Latin influence on this team and Alomar would provide that along with the reputation of a good communicator, teacher, and youth developer.
Joey Cora
Another smart baseball guy who is looking for a spot on a coaching staff and he should be able to find one in Chicago. It is rumored that the front office will strongly recommend Cora for the new managers staff. Cora has a great relationship with the Red Sox front office and has experience coaching under Ozzie Guillen which regardless of what people say is a plus. Again the Cubs want a Latin influence on this team with the amount of talent is coming up which he also provides. I could see Cora as a base coach on the new coaching staff.
Bill Buckner
He is the most likely candidate to be promoted within the Cubs organization to the parent club. Bill Buckner is gaining a lot of steam around baseball as a good hitting coach and young talent developer. He has high praise from several prospects in the Cubs system as well as the front offices stamp of approval. He will also likely be a strong recommendation from the front office to the new manager. Plus the former Cub factor does not hurt at all. I see him as the new hitting coach on Torey Lovullo staff.
Dave McKay
He worked wonders with Alfonso Soriano and has great respect around the game. Again he will be another suggestion for the Cubs new manager. This one I am less confident on than the previous suggestions because the new manager has to have some say with his staff. But because of his experience around baseball and with this team I think he is a perfect candidate for 1st base coach again for 2014.
Chris Bosio
I am even less confident about Chris Bosio. Although I think he did a remarkable job with the Cubs pitching staff the two years he was here the manager almost always dictates the pitching coach. Lovullo has no prior relationship with Bosio and I am not so sure the Cubs front office would want any more ties to the last managing regime. Kind of a toss up but I still think it is possible. I really do not have a grasp on any other pitching coaches that Lovullo has deep connections to.
Derek Johnson
He is my wildcard on this coaching staff. He is currently in the Cubs system as the minor league pitching coordinator. Prior to that he spent 11 season at the Vanderbilt’s pitching/head coach where he earned National Pitching Coach of the Year in 2004 and National Assistant Coach of the Year in 2010. Derek Johnson developed 6 big name first round draft picks named David Price, Mike Minor, Sonny Gray, Casey Weathers, Grayson Garvin, and Jeremy Sowers. He has been a wizard with young pitchers and it known to get out the most of what he has to work with. I am not sure if the Cubs front office would recommend or push for his hiring, if Derek would leave his position as minor league pitching coordinator, or if Theo would want to have him at the Major League level. But one thing is for sure he would be a huge asset to this coaching staff for his knowledge and development. For that he has to be at least a guy who will get a look.
Other Coaches
Assistant Hitting Coach: I am unsure if the Cubs will go this route this time around but I would not be surprised if they did. Not sure who really fits the bill here but Mariano Duncan would make a great assistant hitting coach (or just hitting coach for that matter) although I am not sure they will want to deplete their farm of the two best hitting coaches going to the parent club. So in the end I feel this is an Unknown.
Bullpen Coach/Bullpen Catcher: I think the Cubs should go with a former/current catcher as the bullpen coach and not a former pitcher. I think the Cubs should hire Henry Blanco as bullpen coach. There has been numerous GMs and media outlets including Jim Hendry and Bruce Levine that stated he would be a great coach/manager one day. So why not bring back Greg Maddux’s personal catcher in as the bullpen coach. I think he would do a wonderful job with the bullpen and also the Cubs would have a veteran defensive catcher that could be a mentor to Wellington Castillo (if he is not traded) to go along with Alomar. In the end this is a big unknown but I am pretty fond of Hank White.
In the end the 2014 managerial staff will look like this:
Manager: Torey Lovullo
Bench Coach: Sandy Alomar Jr.
Pitching Coach: Unknown
Hitting Coach: Bill Buckner
Assistant Hitting Coach: Unknown
3rd base Coach: Brian Butterfield
1st base Coach: Joey Cora
Bullpen Coach: Unknown
In the end I think the Cubs front office and new manager will cut the ties to what was known as the “Dale Sveum” era. I also think Theo and Co. will get at least two of their recommendations on this coaching staff with Joey Cora and Bill Buckner. I think this is a very solid staff and the making of something really special on the north side.
Until Next Time..
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Cubs Manager Quick Hits
Nothing too much to write about so here are some quick hits-
· Dave Martinez is likely to interview by the end of the week and have been quoted to be “very excited.”
· Torey Lovullo is another guy who may start gaining some steam just like the recent trend with Renteria and Martinez. Many of us have been on him for a while like Chicago Cubs Online, Cubs Den, and myself but to me he is more than a flavor of the week candidate. Read this Q&A from fangraphs here. Hard not to love his approach.
· Speaking of Lovullo he could actually interview before the Red Sox are out of the post-season if the Red Sox front office/coaching staff allows it. Usually teams have stipulations on organization employees interviewing during the postseason but there has been exceptions. Lovullo could interview on the Red Sox next off/traveling day which is Friday the 18th. He could also be interviewed between the time the ALCS ends and the WS begins (if the Red Sox get pass the Tigers that is).
· I honestly believe that Lovullo will the final interview and the front office could conduct 2nd interviews or make their decision from there.
· My preference for manager goes in this order Acta, Lovullo, Martinez, Renteria, and Hinch.
· I do not believe there is any hidden or surprise candidates on the docket and those are the 5 the front office will pick from.
· I am in the minority that feel the Cubs could get 2 of these candidates on the coaching staff. Which one as manager and one as bench coach.
· I am being told that Sandy Alomar Jr. will be considered a strong candidate for the bench coaching position regardless of who gets named manager. The front office loves the idea of having him on the coaching staff but is just unsure about him being a manger of the Chicago Cubs. There will be a strong recommendation for him to the new manager I am told.
· The front office making coaching recommendations is not a new concept for any team. Which is why it is no surprise the front office will also recommend bring back Dave McKay in some capacity, possibly Chris Bosio as pitching coach, and I am hearing the front office has been thrilled with the development and work Bill Buckner has done has hitting coach of the Boise Hawks. Remember these are recommendations not requirements and it is more than likely going to be up to the new manager.
· While all the qualities of the new manager that was laid out by Theo and Jed are all obviously important. I am now told the usage and understand of advance stats, Latin influence, and development outweighs the rest including winning and management experience. Although I am told by another source that if a guy like Hinch or Lovullo is hired the Latin influence could come way of a bench coach (ie Sandy Alomar Jr.) so that is likely not to hurt them as much as we would think.
Until Next Time..
Thursday, October 10, 2013
A Requirement: Chicago Cubs Coach Ozzie Guillen
So this morning while I went through my twitter feed I came across a wonderfully written article by Patrick Mooney of CSN on Ozzie Guillen and the Cubs. I suggest you give it a read here. In fact I suggest you give Patrick Mooney a follow on twitter because pretty much everything he writes is a must read. But after reading his piece I came to one conclusion. The Chicago Cubs need Ozzie Guillen as a coach on this team going forward.
While I know that Ozzie likely would never be named manager of the Cubs with the current front office (which Mooney agrees with in his article). I do think he should not only be a candidate for the next coaching staff but he should be a requirement. One thing the Cubs fans liked so much about Girardi and the reason why he ripped a lot of our hearts out yesterday is his passion for the Cubs. As fans we want a manager who knows Chicago, loves the Cubs, and have expectations of what it takes to live the experience of being a part of the Cubs. Joe Girardi had that and guess what? So does Ozzie Guillen! While he never played, managed, or coached for the Cubs he spent 19 years as a player and manager of the Chicago White Sox. He knows the culture, has knowledge of the city, and knows what it takes to win here.
But knowing these things and being passionate about the city of Chicago and the Cubs will not get you the “requirement” tag to put him on the coaching staff from me. The fact that Ozzie is known as one of the best in game managers in baseball helps out tremendously. His passion, drive, and the motivation he provides for his players is 2ndto none. There were numerous times during post game press conferences Ozzie did something Dale Sveum never did; take all the heat off his players and put it on himself. Whether you agree with Guillen’s tatics (or antics for that matter) is not important. His leadership and the way he handles players is what this team desperately needs going forward.
Do not get me wrong Ozzie does come with some issues just like many managers. Some of the things he has said and done have been disrespectful, politically incorrect, and sometimes can be seen as selfish or distasteful. Such expressing his want for a contract extension through the media, making insensitive comments to Jay Mariotti, declining to visit the White House, the controversial illegal immigration comments in 2010, and of course the Fidel Castro comment that had him suspended for 5 games in April of 2012. Those are all issues that Ozzie has had and he paid the price for. You get the great with the horrible when you have Ozzie Guillen on your team. And everyone knows eventually Ozzie is going to do something that offends or embarrasses someone but I think there is less of a chance if he is a coach.
Ozzie Guillen would be essential to this new Cubs staff for all the reasons above but one that may get overlooked is his teaching, development, and relation to his players. Ozzie is known around baseball circles as one of the best teachers in the game. He is a very hands on manager who works with veteran players and prospects alike. He expects a lot from them and he gets the most out of them. The other thing that gets overlooked is his relation to Latin players. If anyone knows the struggles, expectation, and can relate to Latin prospects coming up to the big leagues it is Ozzie Guillen. Currently the Cubs have numerous Latin prospects who getting closer and closer to the big league level not to mention a current player named Starlin Castro (who Guillen thinks is an All-Star SS) who could use a mentor like Ozzie Guillen. That one big glaring hole from the past years with the Cubs is that they had no Latin voice or influence on this team. Fact is who better to relate to those up and coming prospects than Ozzie Guillen who is a great teacher, motivator, and went through the same thing as they did. Having a Latin influence on this team is instrumental whether it be Guillen or someone else but you cannot do much better than Ozzie Guillen.
If anyone doubts Ozzie Guillen I suggest our read Patrick Mooney’s article I linked above and also watch this video from earlier this year from CSNChicago in a discussion with Ozzie. Ozzie Guillen being a part of the Chicago Cubs coaching staff is a necessity regardless of who is manager. A necessity I would applaud and be ecstatic if the front office implemented.
I am ready for Ozzie Guillen on the north side? Are you ready for “Ozzie being Ozzie?”
Until Next Time…
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
My favorite candidates for managing the Cubs
These are exciting times in the Chicago Cubs organization with the recent firing of Dale Sveum and letting the existing coaching staff “explore other opportunities.” There are big changes on the way and it starts with the manager first and then the coaching staff. So in this post today I thought it would be only right I discuss my picks for Manager of the Chicago Cubs. I am only accepting candidates I feel align with most of the front office outlined to the media for the qualities of the new manager. (Note: I sorted them by preference and it should be noted this is my list alone. Although some of the people named on this list have been named or rumored as candidates for the job)
1. Joe Maddon- This guy should be on the top of the list no matter what. His philosophy, player development, excitement, experience, and success exceeds all expectations put out by the front office. He whole heartily believes in advance statistics and what he has done with the players he has is nothing short of amazing. He is 704-644 as a manager in his 10 year career. Since 2008 he has had 84 or more wins in the most difficult division in baseball to win. He was named the 2008 and 2011 Manager of the Year. He made the ALDS 3 times in his career, ALCS one time, and has one World Series loss in his 10 years as manager. He is highly accomplished and recommended which is why getting him away from what he and Friedman had built will be pretty much impossible. Still should be the number one priority to at least check in on him. I would yell with joy if they got him.
2. Joe Girardi- I have talked about him a lot and most of you are familiar with what he has accomplished as manager and his ties to Chicago. What Joe has done with the Yankees this year and their injuries is nothing short of spectacular. You combined that with what he did with the 2006 super young over-achieving Florida Marlins and you see two tremendous assets the front office adores. I guy who can develop players while managing veterans. A guy who is the complete baseball manager and if it is not for Joe Maddon then he would be #1 on this list. I would jump for joy if they got Joe.
3. Mike Maddux- Although Maddux does not have the experience the front office wants in managing or the hands on development but something cannot be ignored and that is the success he has had as a pitching coach. We have seen some many pitching coaches become good solid managers like Bud Black, John Farrell, etc… I believe you can put Maddux in that category. Not only does he have that going for him but he is well respect around the league and an advance statistics guy. Something the Cubs front office requires. I talked about Maddux in length in my “Managing a Theory” post here. I also believe Mike Maddux has something to offer that many candidates do not have the leverage to do and that is to lure his brother Greg Maddux to the northside. That is a huge selling point. I would be impressed if they landed him.
4. Manny Acta- Somewhat of a dark horse but should be near the top of the list. Manny Acta’s resume is beyond impressive. Manny has worked under Frank Robinson and Willie Randolph so he does have the old school back ground but he is also prides himself and employs sabermetric ideas and concepts. In an interesting note in 1991 he served as a player/manager at the A level before becoming a full-time manager in 1993. Manny has worked with the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals but was fired from both positions after first raising expectations then the following year not living up to them. He is known for his teaching style, player development, and calm demeanor. His ethnic background is also a plus working as manager for the Tigres del Licey in the Dominican Winter League. Which means he should relate better to the huge amount of Latin prospects the Cubs have in their system. Manny does not have the success in the major leagues but he provides the style, experience, and player development the Cubs front office is looking for. If the Cubs hired Acta I would not mind it one bit.
5. Sandy Alomar Jr.- Alomar Jr. breathes baseball and is one of the most respected minds in the game. Being a former catcher his in game skills are above anyone else on this list with exception to Maddon and Girardi. Almora worked under Acta during his time in Cleveland as is to be said a dynamic voice in the clubhouse which the Cubs front office covets. Alomar has been a finalist for the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Indians but has not been given a full-time gig. The only time Almora managed in the big leagues was for the last days of the season after the Indians fired Manny Acta on September 27th. Almora remains on the Indians staff as a bench coach for Terry Francona which remains a plus because he gets a firsthand observation of what Theo likes in a manager. Again I say his ethnic background is a plus for the prospects coming up through the system. The biggest weakness is the old school mentality Almora has in managing and the lack on firsthand experience. He would be another solid hire that would be hard to get mad at.
6. DeMarlo Hale- Not a sexy name but he has quite the resume. Born in Chicago Illinois Hale has been pretty much every phase of the game. First working at the Buck Dent baseball school in Florida for 4 years before then becoming a AA coach. That alone proves he has worked with prospects in aspect to player development. The other thing that is appealing is his experience in Boston being a manager of the year in 95 for Boston’s A affiliate. He then was promoted to AA Trenton where he compiled a 92-50 record in 99 and was named Manager of the Year by Baseball America. Before going back to Boston in 2006, Hale managed the Texas Rangers AAA team in 2000-2001. He did so well there he became the first base coach and OF instructor of the Rangers until 2005. He finally headed back to Boston in 2006 when he was named 3rd base coach replacing Dale Sveum. He was then re-united with Terry Francona in Boston after working with him as a bench coach in Texas. The years after Hale has been the 3rd base coach for the O’s and bench coach for the Jays. He also was a finalist for the managerial position with the Jays in 2010. So while hale does not have the on-field experience his grasp of the minor leagues, player development, and learning curve is pretty unique. Plus the added bonus of working under Theo and Francona as well. I would be rather surprised if they did pick Hale but would not be upset if they did.
7. Dave Martinez- Studying under Joe Maddon since 2007 certainly help Martinez mojo but have a Cubs connection is also a benefit. Again the thing that hurts him is not having that management experience but he does have experience working with youth, low payroll, and player development in the Rays organization. Since 2007 the Rays are 458-352 under his watchful eye. He, along with Maddon, both have advance statistics experience and mesh well with the front office. Although Dave Martinez does come with some baggage with the whole Dave Martinez having a fling with Ryne Sandberg’s wife which is I am not sure would be a factor or not.
8. A.J. Hinch- Another guy that is intriguing and honestly not much more to say that CubsDen and BleacherNation has already said. Hinch would be somewhat of a disappointing hire for me personally because I expect more. But if Jed has faith in him and has worked with him in the past hard to not trust a hire like Hinch.
9. Pete Mackanin- If the Cubs are considering A.J. Hinch then they need to consider Pete Mackanin again. They essentially have the same background and circumstances but Pete is just older. Check out all you need to know on Peter Mackanin here. Chicago native and has a ton of experience in the minors with some major league managerial experience as well. Also has the advance scouting to add to his resume and has been interviewed by the front office before. Just like Hinch he does not excite me but I could see the fit.
10. Ozzie Guillen-…………. Boom!
Honorable mention: Bud Black and Tony LaRussa. Neither one maybe availiable but you have to check. Both fantastic managers for sure! I know there will a discussion on LaRussa so that that I say…..
Until Next Time…
Monday, September 30, 2013
On The Same Page...New Chapter
The Chicago Cubs fired Dale Sveum for all the right reasons today which is laid out by Theo and provided very nicely by CubsDen
Soon, our organization will transition from a phase in which we have been primarily acquiring young talent to a phase in which we will promote many of our best prospects and actually field a very young, very talented club at the major league level. The losing has been hard on all of us, but we now have one of the top farm systems in baseball, some of the very best prospects in the game, and a clear path forward. In order for us to win with this group – and win consistently – we must have the best possible environment for young players to learn, develop and thrive at the major league level. We must have clear and cohesive communication with our players about the most important parts of the game. And – even while the organization takes a patient, long view – we must somehow establish and maintain a galvanized, winning culture around the major league club.
I believe a dynamic new voice – and the energy, creativity and freshness that comes with this type of change – provides us with the best opportunity to achieve the major league environment we seek. We will begin our search immediately – a process which will be completed before the GM meetings in early November and perhaps much sooner. There are no absolute criteria, but we will prioritize managerial or other on-field leadership experience and we will prioritize expertise developing young talent. We have not yet contacted any candidates or asked permission to speak with any candidates, but that process will begin tomorrow morning.
Here is what I wrote just last Weds. in my piece named “This Off-Season is Predictable?” found here –
Move #1: Fire Sveum/Hire Girardi
Probably the first move that is going to be made this off-season is the firing of Dale Sveum and the hiring of Chicago native Joe Girardi. The front office has asked the fan base, media, and players to be patient because this rebuilding process takes time but we ALL need something. That something is the firing of Sveum and hiring of Girardi. The move signals another big step in the rebuilding process. A signal that says the Cubs are starting the process of competing by adding a manager who is a proven winner, talent developer, and overall beloved Chicagoan Joe Girardi. By adding Joe they are stating “the organization has their guys in place that has experience with all phases of the managing game and he is going to take the Chicago Cubs to the next level and beyond. Joe Girardi symbolizes the start of the light that leads us to the end of the tunnel.” The fact is there has been too many red flags for the Dale Sveum era Cubs. The recent turmoil in the clubhouse, the regression of core players, in game decisions, and various other things make a decision of firing Sveum easy. But what makes it easier is filling his place with Joe Girardi. This is the single most important move of the off-season and I now believe there is a 50/50 shot of it actually happening. (Note: I also tie in the coaching changes here as well.)
No need to call me a Cubs prophet or bowing down, that is not needed. The fact is anyone could see the writing on the wall in respect to Dale Sveum hiring and the great possibility of Joe Girardi or someone like him being hired to fill role Chicago Cubs manager. I think what I laid out and what Theo was quoted is about as right on as you can be and honestly it is the right thing to do. Deep down I do not think Theo believed Dale Sveum was “the guy” to take them all the way but I do believe he was a guy Theo and Jed gambled on to see if he can become “the guy.” The gamble did not pay off the past two years thus where we are right now. The writing has been on the wall since June which I expressed my frustration back then found here. Back then I questioned whether he was the guy and once again the front office has proved I was correct in thinking so.
Now it becomes the stage of finding that guy to take them to the next level. The guy to fill the void as manager and excel in all those things Dale Sveum didn’t. I think the front office has a few managers in mind that they would love to hire with one near impossible to get in Joe Maddon and one that looks almost too good to be true in Joe Girardi. I think both would be a fantastic land for this front office. But I also would not count out Mike Maddux who was the front office’s first choice during the last go round. I guess the only thing left to do is watch the process, analyze, and wait to see if once again Theo and I are on the same page.
Until Next Time….
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
This Off-Season is Predictable?
Is it just me or is the Cubs offseason activities seem predictable this year? I feel the front office is being very up front when stating they will have financial constraints this offseason but also believe they will spend money where money makes sense. I also believe the front office is ready to start turning the corner on this 5 year rebuilding plan heading into year 3. This means they are likely starting to prepare the team more and more to make that playoff push. This means new acquisitions, trading assets, and putting money into the now/future players. I think all of this starts this year and really ramps up year 4 and 5. These are 5 moves I see the front office making heading into 2014 season.
Move #1: Fire Sveum/Hire Girardi
Probably the first move that is going to be made this off-season is the firing of Dale Sveum and the hiring of Chicago native Joe Girardi. The front office has asked the fan base, media, and players to be patient because this rebuilding process takes time but we ALL need something. That something is the firing of Sveum and hiring of Girardi. The move signals another big step in the rebuilding process. A signal that says the Cubs are starting the process of competing by adding a manager who is a proven winner, talent developer, and overall beloved Chicagoan Joe Girardi. By adding Joe they are stating “the organization has their guys in place that has experience with all phases of the managing game and he is going to take the Chicago Cubs to the next level and beyond. Joe Girardi symbolizes the start of the light that leads us to the end of the tunnel.” The fact is there has been too many red flags for the Dale Sveum era Cubs. The recent turmoil in the clubhouse, the regression of core players, in game decisions, and various other things make a decision of firing Sveum easy. But what makes it easier is filling his place with Joe Girardi. This is the single most important move of the off-season and I now believe there is a 50/50 shot of it actually happening. (Note: I also tie in the coaching changes here as well.)
Move #2: Win the bidding and signing of Masahiro Tanaka
The biggest free agent on the market is 24 year old right-handed pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. He will be a part of a high bidding process just like Yu Darvish but he may not be as good. Do not get me wrong this guys is good, controllable, and a possible future ace. He has a career ERA of 2.32 in 1284 IP or his over 1200 SO during that time. But what is even more impressive is this year he is 20-0 with 23 game started, 181 IP, .934 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 7 SO/9, and sparkling 1.24 ERA. This is a guy the Cubs cannot miss on which is why making this the next big move of the offseason a must and regardless of money will happen.
Move #3: Trade Jeff Samardzija
This move purely hinges on signing Tanaka in the essence that it is much easier to trade Shark with the addition of Tanaka than it is without. Trading him is possible and recommended either way which is explained in great detail in a previous post here.
Move #4: Sign Curtis Granderson
This is a move that needs to be done. The Cubs do have two capable players on the current roster to man CF with Sweeney and Bogusevic but none have the impact that Granderson does. I also do not feel that Lake is an adequate fit for CF either. I think the Cubs signing the veteran CF is a wise idea which I explained in a previous post here.
Move #5: Minor Signings and Re-signings (I put all of this under one transaction because I think all of these moves are on the low end and each don’t need their own number)
- Re-Sign Dioner Navarro: They need a back-up catcher and he is the best in the business right now.
- Re-Sign Donnie Murphy: Can play all over the infield and has some pop.
- Re-Sign Ryan Sweeney: The guy deserves a place on the team.
- Sign Jeff Baker, Mark DeRosa, or Corey Hart: Any one of them fills the need of a right-handed bat that can play 1st and OF which the Cubs desperately need. All have pros and cons but Hart has the most upside but injury issues plus cost could be a concern which makes Baker and DeRosa look more appealing.
- Sign a reliever or two with closer experience: There is a ton to pick from and the Cubs need veteran pen help.
I think it is obvious this should be the direction the Chicago Cubs front office will and should go. I believe it all starts from the top and works its way down. I believe if they do what I lay out here this offseason then the Cubs may end up surprising a lot of teams and even this fan base. If this does happen you could grade this up and coming offseason an A.
Until Next Time…
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Why Replace Dale & With Who?
If the Chicago Cubs are going to make a managerial move this off-season it is going to be for someone who can make big impact now and for the future. A guy with good name ID who will be great at developing players. A guy who can develop young talent while still being equally fair to veterans. I guy who preaches fundamentals, follows the front offices same direction, who is a players manager as well as a disciplinarian. The only way the Cubs cut the ties with Dale Sveum and the current staff is to find someone who fits this mold I laid out. Otherwise replacing Dale just does not make baseball sense.
Right now there are a few managers who fit the bill well but who will likely not be made available this offseason. Those managers are Terry Francona, Joe Maddon (my personal favorite), John Farrell, Buck Showalter, and Bruce Bochy. Below is my list of managers that have a decent chance to be available during this off-season that the Cubs front office would likely be interested in.
Bud Black
A guy who has worked with Jed Hoyer in San Diego and is known as a good manager and pitching coach. Black is in the final year of his deal but still has two options. There is talk the Padres may let Black walk and go in a different direction. Black obviously has experience managing a younger team sprinkled with veterans so that is a huge plus for the Chicago Cubs. Black also comes with good name recognition and his preaching of fundamentals and player development is 2ndto none. This story here has a quote I love regarding Bud Black view on managing. He says
“I think your style sort of changes a little bit based on your personality. The daily conversations are different. There's much more of a teaching aspect now than with the '07 group, and even the '08 group. Really, it transitioned last year to one, a younger team where we had a lot of teaching that had to take place. Which I think if you ask anybody in the (coaches room), we love. We like that, and I still view myself as a teacher to go along with the leadership role. But I like that part, talking the game to players about strategy, about technique, about fundamentals ---- all those things that have to take place on the field, the thought processes in the dugout, the preparation. I love that.”
There is also the benefit that he has been a really good pitching coach and a pretty good manager on a team with payroll restrictions. Although Bud Black isn’t exactly young I think he may be a good fit for this up and coming young team.
Mike Maddux
I talked in length about Mike Maddux hereback in June. Here is what I said
Now what I have always learned is if you have a problem you fix it. By laying out a problem without a solution all you are doing is venting, which changes nothing in the end. So my solution is…. Hire Mike Maddux. If you all remember Mike Maddux was thought of as the Cubs first pick for the management position but then it came out he wanted to stay in Texas. Then we heard he was not offered the job’ then we heard he was but turned it down. All that is hearsay now but the reason Mike stayed in Texas was a big one; family. Mike Maddux currently has all his kids in a college in Texas although some will be graduating next year which brings me to why he may now jump at the chance to coach the Chicago Cubs. At the end of Dale Sveum’s contract Mike Maddux will be ready to once again entertain management vacancies (or maybe before then) because most of his kids will be graduated or a year away from graduating college. He will be more open to moving to a new location, new life, and new challenge.
But why Mike Maddux you ask? Well obviously he is a favorite of Theo and Jed since he went through the interview process. He fits more of the mentality that Theo and Jed are looking for given this quote on Sabremetrics in an ESPN piece wrote by Jon Greenberg in 2011 “It's art. You can make some things out of them. But there's a lot of real stuff to them also. Good numbers don't lie. Bad numbers can be a little deceptive. You use all the information you can, but when it comes down to it, you got to trust yourself, trust your players and try to put your players in positions where they can succeed.”
I suggest everyone to re-read that article and you will find out just why he is the perfect manager for this team to move toward the ultimate goal of a World Series Championship. Another huge plus by hiring Mike Maddux is the motivation and drive for Mike Maddux to work with his brother Greg. The feeling is mutual but Greg wanted to again spend time with his family before jumping into baseball full time once again. At the end of Dale Sveum contract Gregg Maddux will be out of baseball full-time for over 6 years and recently Greg has been slowly getting back into baseball working with the Texas organization. This means he could be looking for something more full-time around the same time Mike Maddux is looking for a coach on his staff.
The timing of Dale Sveum contract which is only 3 year total in length and the time of Mike Maddux kids to get through school seems like a lucky coincidence but we do not know what took place in those meetings between Mike Maddux, Theo Epstein, and Jed Hoyer. I am not implying that they have a secret deal under the table or anything like that. But what I am saying is all three men are smart and if Maddux said something to the effect of “if this was three years later, I would take the Cubs job in a heartbeat,” that had to be a factor with giving Sveum only 3 years when the President and GM each have 5 years on their contract (something that is rare). A good businessman always looks years ahead and plays out each and every scenario he/she can think of. Theo and Jed are good at what they do and if they think the Maddux brothers might be available in 3 years and Mike is the guy they actually wanted; then hiring Dale to a 3 year deal make sense. I am assuming they just wanted to see what Dale can do in 3 years in Chicago to see if he is the long term option (which is smart). Well if you are in the place I am in then you think he is not the long term option. And oh what do you know after 3 years (or sooner) Mike Maddux looks like he available for the Chicago Cubs new Manger vacancy.
Mike Maddux seems like the perfect package for the Cubs… almost.
Joe Girardi
Not much to say here that is not already written by better writers than myself. So I will provide the links to their thought on Mr. Girardi-
http://www.chicagonow.com/loxas-factor/2013/09/timing-could-be-right-for-girardi-and-cubs/
http://cubbiescrib.com/2013/09/16/joe-girardi-next-cubs-skipper/
You know it is just not like me not to weigh in so here I go. It is extremely hard for me to be fair when talking about Joe Girardi because I have a bit of a man crush on him. I supported Jim Hendry and Co. hiring him the last time he was a free agent but the front office went with Sweet Lou which at the time I was very heated about but in the end you can’t really blame Hendry going either way. Joe has been a favorite person and player to me because of his devotion to Chicago, the Cubs, and its fan base. He is energetic, stubborn (in the right way), good with young players and great with the veterans. He is a former catcher so he knows the ends and outs of the game plus he has experience dealing with Chicago as a whole. I feel Joe Girardi would know what to expect because he has been here and done that. He has experience with the Cubs devoted fan base, he has experience with the Chicago media, and he will openly admit his admiration for everything Chicago. Mr. Girardi has done a lot for only being a 48 year old skipper. He has guided a extremely young 2006 Florida Marlins team to a 78-84 record and was in the wildcard hunt even with the lowest payroll in the league that year. He was named Manager of the Year that year and then promptly fired by micro-managing owner Jeffrey Loria. He has now proven he can manage an aging veteran team in the Yankees just as well. Although his first year he did not make the playoffs his team finished a fantastic 89-73 and in 2009 he lead the Yankees to their 27th World Series. But probably Joe’s best two seasons is the one he is having currently and the 2011 Yankees when they were expect to struggle throughout the year. In 2011 and this year Joe has shown he can manage and succeed with whatever a the front office gives him. Sure he still has superstars but with the aging and banged up team that had Granderson, Cano, ARod, Texiera, Youk, and others all being bit by that injury bug he is still in the wildcard hunt this season. A feat that is beyond amazing.
There is no question that if Joe becomes available he will be looked at closely by the Chicago Cubs. In fact I am saying right now the only way he leaves the Yankees is to come Chicago. His love for the team, city, and fans is 2nd to none; no other team can compete with that.
Conclusion
The only way I am advocating Dale Sveum being fired is if there is a suitable replacement out there is off-season that the front office knows they want and can get. The front office is great at analyzing every angle and I am sure they already have a short list of guys they are willing to fire Dale over. The three guys above I feel will not only be possibly available but I believe they are 3 guys on that short list of coveted guys. These 3 guys embody everything the front office and the Cubs are looking for to take the northsiders to the next level. I honestly think that if Mike Maddux or Joe Girardi and to a lesser extent Bud Black are out there looking for a manager position and the Cubs have a great shot at getting one then Dale Sveum will be let go. As it stands right now I think there is a 30% chance Dale Sveum is fired but as we know those odds can dramatically change from day to day.
Until Next Time….
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