Garza Return Expectations

One of the hardest things to determine is a players trade value and return in baseball.  There are so many changing variables such as market, contract, value, age, teams involved, team needs, etc...  But when we get a nice juicy nugget like this it gives us a window into what the Cubs front office expects in return.  Keep in mind a lot can change from now until Garza is traded but it is obvious the Cubs are going to sell high and go after at least one pitcher (this goes back to last year when wanting to acquire a top tier pitcher in the deal. The Cubs system for pitchers is pretty weak) and an impact athlete (which is usually someone up the middle of the field CF, SS, 2b.  The front office loves these type of players because if needed the can move around the field where the Cubs may have a need).  This is why when the O's and Cubs discussed Garza the Cubs wanted Jonathan Schoop (top 50) and Eduardo Rodriguez (top 100).

We have heard upwards of 11 team interested in Garza which are likely the Rangers, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rockies, Indians, Jays, Dbacks, Nationals, and the Pirates.  All teams have varying interest in the right-hander and most have the prospects the Cubs are looking for in a deal for Garza.  In this post we will look at the most needy and rumored teams for Garza services.  These teams are The Rangers, Red Sox, Padres, Jays, and Dodgers.  We now have the knowledge of the quality of prospects the Cubs want in return for Garza and the teams that have interest in Garza.  So here is the 5 teams and the prospects the Cubs would want in return using the model of what they asked for when talking to the Orioles.

Note I used both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects for 2013.


Rangers Top Prospects

Jurickson Profar SS-
Rated #1 prospect overall by both sites he is pretty much off-limits unless the Cubs decide one of their top prospects with Garza or trade Samardzija.  So he is pretty much not going anywhere and is rated too high to come to the Cubs for Garza alone.

Mike Olt 3B/OF-
Rated #22 by Baseball America and #30 by Baseball Prospectus the slugger has fallen down a dark hole as far as prospects are concern.  Vision problems and injury woes resulted in just a .198 avg over 52 games in AAA is a big concern.  The Cubs currently have a nice crop of players that could play 3rd so I do not see Olt as a guy they would look for but they have had interest in the past so he could be part of the deal just not the headliner.

Martin Perez LHP-
Rated #81 by Baseball America and #59 by Baseball Prospectus this guy could be a good solid middle of the rotation starter in the Majors.  Especially considering it seems like he has figured it out at the Major League level at the ripe age of 22.  This year he is posting a 1.85 ERA in 4 starts in Texas and could find himself as the headliner in a deal for Matt Garza.  The Cubs had interest in him last year as well.

Leonys Martin CF-
Rated #98 by Baseball America but does not rank on BP it is unlikely this guy would be moved considering the Rangers OF woes.

Jorge Alfaro C-
Rated #76 by BP but not rated by BA this is not the type of guy I see the Cubs going after.

Luis Sardinas SS-
Rated #86 by BP but not rated by BA this is a guy I could see the Cubs going after.  Not as good as Profar but very athletic and the type of player the Cubs like to target.  He has posted a .281 avg with a .336 OBP and 21 SB in high A this season.  Very raw but the Cubs could target him.

Honorable Mention-

Luke Jackson and Cody Buckel will likely find themselves in top 100 next season and both would interest the Cubs greatly.  Luke's Baseball Reference Page and Cody's Baseball Reference Page.

Conclusion:  The Cubs would be in a great position to get the most out of Garza by dealing him to Texas.  The Rangers wanted him last year so the interest is definitely there.  If the Cubs could get Martin Perez and one of Cody Buckel or Luke Jackson it would be a nice haul for the Cubs and even very likely.


Red Sox Top Prospects

Xander Bogaerts SS-

Rated #8 by BA and #12 by BP this is the Red Sox top prize but with 2nd base taken by Pedoria and how well Jose Iglesias is playing he could be a valued trade chip for the Red Sox.  But just like Profar; Xander might be to rich for Garza so unless another piece or two is added I don't see him going anywhere.

Jackie Bradley Jr. OF-

Rated #31 by BA and #27 by BP Bradley started the year with the Red Sox but after some struggling was sent back down.  He is now hitting .298 avg with a .387 OBP and 7 homers in AAA.  Let me be the first one to tell you that Jackie Bradley Jr. could be the main piece in a trade for Garza.  Theo knows his system and the competition for Garza seems to be high so getting Bradley Jr. seems a possibility for Garza alone.  But if the Cubs did get Bradley another top 100 prospect along with him is unlikely without additional pieces involved.

Matt Barnes RHP-

Rated #40 by BA and #38 by BP is Barnes who could also be the headliner in a trade for Garza but would be accompanied by another top 100 prospect as well.  Barnes has struggled some in AA posting a 5.19 ERA but his SO/9 is at 11.0 so he does have swing and miss ability.  Some believe he could be a front line starter while others thing he could be a nice closer.  Either way he would be a great piece of the Cubs to pick up.  And once again a guy drafted by Theo.

Allen Webster RHP-

Rated #40 by BA and #69 by BP is would be a dream to get both Barnes and Webster in a deal for Garza so that is likely not to happen but with Webster you could see him with another top 100 prospect plus another piece.  Besides his disastrous MLB numbers he seems to be getting it together in AAA.  2.98 ERA 56 SO to 22 BB and a WHIP under 1.00 in 10 starts is impressive.  The Cubs tried to acquire Webster for Dempster last deadline but we all know how that turned out.

Henry Owens LHP-

Rated #91 by BA and not rated by BP is 20 year old lefty Owens.  It is entirely possible that the Cubs could get Owens along with Barnes or Webster.  There is a slimmer than slim chance the Cubs could get Jackie Bradley Jr. with Hendry Owens but like I said very slim.  Owens in high A ball has posted 2.91 ERA in 15 starts while avg. 10 SO per 9 innings.  Another guy the Cubs would want and drafted by Theo

Honorable Mention-

Anthony Ranaudo is a former first round pick by Theo and seems to be getting it together at the age of 23 in AA posting a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts.  Another power pitcher averaging just over 9 SO over 9 innings seems like a fit for the Cubs.  He was ranked 67th best prospect in 2011 by BA.

Garin Cecchini  is also a former pick by Theo in 2010 but is not your usual type of player the Cubs would trade for but it is hard to argue with numbers.  Just see for yourself here.

Conclusion:  The Cubs would benefit from trading with the Red Sox given the knowledge Theo has of the system.  The Red Sox has a wave of talent and are in position to make a run at another World Series if they can add an arm.  I think if the Cubs got one of Bradley, Webster, or Barnes with one of Hendry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, or Garin Checchini they would clean up nicely for Matt Garza. The Red Sox may be the best trading partners for the Cubs involving Garza.


Padres Top Prospects

Max Fried LHP-

Rated #46 by BA and #61 by BP he could be the headliner or 2nd prospect in a deal for Matt Garza a first round pick last year could be on this way in a deal for Garza but word is the Padres really want to hold onto him.  It is hard to judge if he would be available or not. In 14 starts he has posted a 3.64 ERA but is pretty raw in A ball.

Austin Hedges C-

Rated #58 by BA and #19 by BP it is know he is pretty much off limits for the Padres.  In high A he is hitting .269 with .355 OBP and is pretty polished behind the plate catching 37% of base runners this year.  This is a guy the Cubs might want but not as a headliner so the match is just not there.

Jedd Gyorko 2B/3B-

Rated #71 by BA and #84 by BP he does not fit the bill of someone the Cubs would go after but I could be surprised.  He is currently coming back from an injury and is needed on the Padres so availability may be an issue.

Honorable Mention-

Matt Wisler is a 20 year old righty who has put up decent numbers between high A and AA.  In 16 starts he is posting a 2.93 ERA 8 SO/9 and has great control only giving up 2 walks per 9 innings.

Robbie Erlin is a 22 year old pitcher who has been moving through the system jumping from rookie ball last year to AAA this year.  He has struggled in AAA this year but that is expected with someone moving up so quickly. See the rest of his stats here.

Conclusion: Out of all the teams the Padres seem like an unlikely fit.  The Cubs would have to come away with Wisler, Erlin, and Fried for me to be happy.  If they came away with Casey Kelly (Tommy John Surgery, not included on the list), Wisler, and Erlin that would make me very happy.  I just do not see a deal happening here with the current formula.


Blue Jays Top Prospects

Aaron Sanchez RHP-

Rated #65 by BA and #32 by BP is a guy that would likely be the headliner in a trade for Garza.  The 21 year old first round pick is posting a 2.73 ERA in high A ball and a WHIP under 1.000.  He has middle of the rotation potential and would be a nice get for the Cubs.  He would be available for Garza plus one more top 100 prospect.

Marcus Stroman RHP-

Rated #98 by BA and not rated by BP is a guy who did serve a suspension for PED use but since has gotten clean.  If there is integrity issues I expect the Cubs to pass but he has put up some decent numbers in AA with a 3.38 ERA and 10 SO/9.  He would be a nice 2nd piece for the Cubs to acquire for Garza.

Sean Nolin LHP-

Rated #97 by BP and not rated by BA is 23 year old left Sean Nolin.  Nolin is the guy I want from the Jays in a deal for Garza plain and simple. Nolin in 10 games with AA has posted 2.61 ERA 9 SO/9 2 BB/9 and has the potential to be a #2 starter in the big leagues.  The closest to be ready as far as pitcher go is Nolin and the Cubs could get him plus Sanchez in a deal which should blow your mind as a Cubs fan.

Honorable Mention- (There is quite a few)

Anthony Goose is an outfielder and former top prospect himself has struggled throughout his career in the minors but still got the call up to the big leagues this year.  Again he is an athlete but not a main piece or even a secondary piece in a deal for Garza

Daniel Norris is a former top 100 prospect but has control issues.  He is another guy that if the Cubs think they can fix he would be a steal.  See his stats here.

Roberto Osuna is only 18 years old but he has the makings of being something special.  The Cubs have to have interest.  See his stats here.

A.J. Jimenez is could be the real deal and might find himself in the top 100 prospect list next season if he continues to do what he is doing. He has natural ability behind the plate so if he bat continues to produce he will become something special. See his stats here.

Conclusion:  The Jays are very interesting because the really do not have any high impact talent but have a lot of borderline top 100 definite top 150 prospects in their system.  I think as far as quantity the Jays seem like a good fit.  I think the Cubs could get Aaron Sanchez, Sean Nolin, and A.J. Jimenez in a deal Garza.  I honestly believe that.


Dodger Top Prospects

Hyun-Jin Ryu LHP-

Rated #42 by BA and not rated by BP this guy is not going to be available.  Plain and simple.  If he is I take him straight up for Garza.

Zach Lee RHP-

Ranked #87 by BP and not rated by BA this could be the prime piece for Garza and he should be.  He is trending in the right direction and could move up the top 100 prospect list for next season.  I love what Zach Lee brings and think he is potential ace material. In 17 starts he has a 2.79 ERA in AA at the age of 21.

Honorable Mention:

Joc Pederson is an athlete and good outfielder.  A former top 100 prospect was drafted in 2010 and continues to improve. Check his stats here.

Corey Seager would be an interesting target given he is a first round pick back just last year and has done well in A ball this season.  See his stats here.

Ross Stripling is a guy I could definitely see the Cubs going for.  At age 23 he has incredible control and a decent SO rate.  See his stats here.

Michael Thomas sounds like a guy that if the Cubs wants to help their bullpen he could be a nice addition.  See his stats here.

Chris Reed is another guy the Cubs could look at.  See his stats here.

Conclusion:  Just like the Jays the Dodgers have a lot of prospects that are borderline 100 but more in the 150 range.  Because of this I can see the Cubs getting more than two pieces in a deal for Garza.  Realistically a deal that includes Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, and one of Chris Reed, Ross Stripling, or Michael Thomas seems about right in a deal for Garza.



Final Thoughts

In my opinion the Chicago Cubs front office is going to do their best to get the most high impact prospect talent package they can get.  I think it is going to be quality over quantity because the Cubs are just a few prospect pieces away from fielding their young prospect dream team.  I think if the Cubs did any of these deals they would automatically become the #1 farm system in MLB.

But having said all that I feel the team that has the best prospects available to the Cubs for what they are looking for is the Rangers.  I think if the Cubs could land Martin Perez and either Cody Buckel or Luke Jackson they would be getting one heck of a deal.  Not to mention two pieces that likely could help this season and beyond. 

In a close 2nd I put the Red Sox because if they are willing to trade one of Bradley, Barnes, or Webster with one of Hendry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, or Garin Checchini it would be hard to beat.  Plus Theo knows that farm so well.  They are 2nd but a very close 2nd.

I think the 3rd team I would like to deal with is a tie with the Jay and Dodgers because they seem like they are in a similar position.  Getting Aaron Sanchez or Zach Lee a the main piece plus more is hard to come by but the Cubs want higher impact talent and both do not provide that as much as the Rangers and Red Sox.

That leaves the Padres who I just do not see a fit here.

One thing is for sure the Cubs are not going to come away with a disappointing package of prospects for Garza.  We will just have to wait and see which team is willing to give up that game changing prospect package.



Until Next Time....

Flurry of Moves for the Cubs

The Chicago Cubs made a flurry of moves today so I will break them down like this-

 

Trade #1

Orioles received Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger

Cubs received Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and $388,000 in pool money

 

Trade #2

Dodgers received Carlos Marmol and $209,000 in pool money

Cubs received Matt Guerrier

 

Trade #3

Astros received Ronald Torreyes

Cubs received $784,000 in pool money

 

In trade one the Cubs actually got a decent haul for a guy having a career year with only 4 more months on his contract.  They also trade away a nice but not great catcher/utility player Steve Clevenger who really was not a part of the future after his injury woes.  The Cubs did not get the prospects we all hoped wanted for Feldman but they did get two younger pitchers with really high ceilings and a nice portion of pool money that could help them net a future top 100 prospect.  Jake Arrieta is a former high level prospect who has all the tools to become an elite level pitcher but has not put it together.  Arrieta is also extremely affordable since he is in his first round of arbitration and not eligible to become a free agent until 2017.  You can find Arrieta’s stats here.  The other piece the Cubs got in the trade is Pedro Strop who up until this year has been a dominate reliever for the Orioles and Rangers. His stats here.  He, just like Arrieta, is extremely affordable going into his first year of arbitration.  Both of these guys are lottery picks for the Cubs and could determine if they win or lose this trade.  But something not a lot of people are talking about is the fact that Jake Arrieta is a heavy target for the Padres (see here) so the Cubs essentially eliminated a trade partner for the Padres and put even more focus on Cubs. Not only do the Padres like Jake Arrieta but they also like Matt Garza so the Cubs may have corner the Padres into dealing with them.  I do see Jake Arrieta as a valuable piece to flip.  All in all it is hard not to like this trade even though there is a big gamble with the players the Cubs acquired.

 

In trade two the Cubs finally get rid of Carlos Marmol and only have to pay $2M of his salary while giving the Dodgers 209K in pool money so the basically save $1M.  That alone would have been a steal for the Cubs but then you add in Matt Guerrier to the equation.  Matt Guerrier has had some past success in the majors posting nothing over a 4.07 ERA from 2009 to 2012 but this year his success has been limited.  He is a guy that could stick in the pen if he proves to be this year’s version of the 2012 Shawn Camp.  Hard not to like this trade because it removes the distraction, the cubs get a guy for the pen, and the Cubs save money.

 

Trade number 3 makes me smile the most because the Cubs do have a lot of middle infielders so trading one for nearly $800K in pool money is just smart baseball.  Ronald Torreyes came over in the Sean Marshall deal and is still a valuable piece to the Cubs and obviously the Astros.  Torreyes does have a nice upside obviously but with the Cubs depth in the middle infield trading him for pool money is a no brainer.

 

Other Related Transactions-

 

-       The Cubs placed Ryan Sweeney on the 60 day DL.

-       The Cubs called up David Sappelt.

-       The Cubs call up LHP Chris Rusin to pitch today.

-       Guerrier and Strop will join the Cubs Weds. in Oakland which means Shawn Camp and another pitchers maybe axed soon.

-       Carlos Villanueva will get a starting job again and a decision on Rusin next start after today will depend on him and the number game and trades.

-       Through these trades the Cubs netted $963,000 in pool money according to Hoyer.

-       The Cubs also signed SS Gleyber Torres who is the #2 player in IFA and also pitcher Jefferson Mejia.

-       Cubs still pursuing Jimenez and Moreno in IFA.

 

Until Next Time…

 

Go Cubs, Go get Carl Crawford

Special Note:  I know Crawford is on the DL but this was written assuming he is heathy at the time of trade.

The Chicago Cubs should trade for Carl Crawford!

 

I know what you are saying “this is not Jim Hendry at the helm” and “the Cubs are trying to develop their own talent and not take on overpriced veterans through trades.”  If you are saying this then you have valid points but what if I told you trading for Carl Crawford follows the mold of what the Cubs are trying to do?  I know; I just peaked your interest.

 

The Chicago Cubs under the direction of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer has gone in a direction that I myself thought I would never see.  Building a team from a strong foundation (the farm) then adding low cost/high value (cost efficient free agency) and then trading those low/cost high value for prospects and other impact players that strengthens the team for the future.  Simply an amazing winning formula the front office has started.  But how does that pertain to Carl Crawford? Well to go there we have to look back at some of the moves this front office has made.  Recently the Cubs have handed out big money to Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro who both are building blocks but lost in the shuffle is Edwin Jackson who was signed to a long term deal this past off-season.  Edwin Jackson is not a front line start but a solid 4/5 guy in any rotation and the front office believed Edwin Jackson could give this current team something for the now and future.  Edwin Jackson has been a durable pitcher and that was something the Cubs were lacking in recent years.  Edwin Jackson was only 29 years old when he signed which means he fit not only the now but also the future.  This is something that I expect to start trending as the foundation continues to rise throughout the farm system when the Cubs wants/needs are more black and white.

 

This brings me to Carl Crawford and what he provides the Cubs in value for the now and future. Carl Crawford right now is only 31 years old and yes he has yet to live up to the expectations that he was paid for by Theo but a lot of that has been because of injury.  But now because of that injury, lower expectations, and bottom of the barrel trade value the Cubs might be in a perfect scenario to buy low on a guy who just 3 years ago batted .307 with 19 homers and 47 SB.  Not to mention this year he seems to have bounced back facing NL pitchers on a regular basis batting .301 with a .358 OBP 9 SB in 201 PA.  Another reason why he makes sense now is the Cubs are poised to trade a lot of their outfield in July with DeJesus, Soriano, and Schierholtz all very likely candidates to be on the move.  Also, just like Edwin Jackson, the Cubs need a staple in the outfield until prospects are ready to fill that void (BJax no longer look favorable).  He also fills the big hole in the leadoff spot the Cubs have been missing since Juan Pierre left which is a huge plus.  Jorge Soler is a year or more away and Albert Almora is more than 2 years away so adding Crawford for the next 4 years provides insurance and a nice trade chip if he completely bounces back.

 

The Cubs are in a prime position to pick up Crawford for all the reasons above but another huge reason is the fact the Dodgers are willing to eat a large chunk of money to move him considering the emergence of Puig and their really crowded OF.  So you are asking why would the Cubs want Crawford?  Even at a price of 4 years $40 million (which is half his contract)?  Well there were reports that the Cubs this past offseason were looking for an OF and actively pursued guys like Shane Victorino, BJ Upton, and Michael Bourn.  All those players average about 11M-13M a year over the life of their contract.  Reports suggest the Cubs could have been bidding close to that figure for these 3 players. Let’s not forget the Cubs are to be rumored to be interested in future free agent Jacoby Ellsbury who is making $9M this year and will likely command well beyond that this offseason and Ellsbury is less than 2 years younger than Crawford. 

 

So if the Cubs have interest in signing Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason and they were active in discussions with Shane Victorino, BJ Upton, and Michael Bourn last offseason wouldn’t they be interested in trading for Carl Crawford at 4 years $40M or less without giving up anything of value in return?  Not only do I say they should trade for Carl Crawford but I think front office will at least entertain the idea.  They would be crazy not to.

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

 

 

Managing a Theory: Is Sveum Right for the Cubs?

Throughout this season I have been frustrated, confused, enlightened, surprised, miserable, and so many other emotions.  Most of the negative emotions I have faced came from one individual; (and no, not Carlos Marmol) Dale Sveum.  When Dale Sveum was hired in late 2011 he was believed to be the one to mold this team with his strong teaching on fundamentals and follow the Theo/Jed philosophy the set forth when each took over.  I heard numerous good things about Dale and still believe he is a good baseball man but after half a year into year 2 I am starting to wonder if he is the guy going forward.  I am actually wondering if he is the guy for the right now.

 

Dale is heading into the back half of his contract and this Cubs team does not look any more fundamentally sound or polished than it did at the beginning of the 2012 season.  I have seen Starlin Castro’s development take 10 steps back after the coaches decided to force him to become a player he is clearly not.  Since the Sveum/Rowson change took place Castro BABIP when from the .340s to the .248 which is just about unheard of.  This current coaching staff has continued to tinker and mess with Castro so much it is close to the point of no return.  Right now Castro cannot survive and make strides with Rowson and Sveum at the helm and I honestly believe that.  But the good news for Castro is I do not see Sveum or Rowson as the long term answer in Chicago.

 

This is just not about Castro though; let me tell you some things that do not work for me as a fan or as a person who has been in management myself.  When your team is failing at their goals that means you are failing right along with them.  You need to have the team in your best interest for your sake as well as theirs.  It seems Dale Sveum attitude is making it a blame game between the coaches and players.  He continues to blame players in his post game conferences but I have never heard him say “this loss is on me.”  Not once have I heard him say that he is taking the blame.  Instead I hear things like “I have a weak bullpen” “the errors in the game by _____ really hurt us.”  While this continues to be a pattern for Dale I see another pattern developing with the front office and the players and that is taking the heat off Dale Sveum.  We have already heard Theo and Jed both take time to give Dale a vote of confidence and blame their construction of the roster on the Cubs woes.  We have heard players like Edwin Jackson, Starlin Castro, and others blame themselves for a whole teams loss.  But not once I have heard the manager of the Cubs say “you can blame this one on me.”  The truth is the front office has made mistakes and shares the blame, the players made mistakes and shares the blame, and the coaches have made mistakes (although defends them) and never takes the blame.  Dale recently said he does not listen to 2^nd guessers but how is he going to learn from his mistakes is he does not evaluate himself.  Sometimes it takes an outside party to show you how you messed up or things you are doing wrong.  The thing is Dale is not ready to be a manager of the Chicago Cubs and he has proved this over the past season and a half.  He has made bone head calls in games, he has continued to throw players under the bus regularly, he continues to slam the roster set out by Theo and Jed, he continues to ignore advance statistics that this front office is priding itself on, he continues to be quoted on crazy things about sending down players then mentioning Rizzo and Castro, and he continues to be everything the Cubs do not need in a manager.  This is why he is a placeholder and not a future World Series manager.

 

Now what I have always learned is if you have a problem you fix it.  By laying out a problem without a solution all you are doing is venting, which changes nothing in the end.  So my solution is…. Hire Mike Maddux.  If you all remember Mike Maddux was thought of as the Cubs first pick for the management position but then it came out he wanted to stay in Texas. Then we heard he was not offered the job’ then we heard he was but turned it down.  All that is hearsay now but the reason Mike stayed in Texas was a big one; family.  Mike Maddux currently has all his kids in a college in Texas although some will be graduating next year which brings me to why he may now jump at the chance to coach the Chicago Cubs.  At the end of Dale Sveum’s contract Mike Maddux will be ready to once again entertain management vacancies because most of his kids will be graduated or a year away from graduating college.  He will be more open to moving to a new location, new life, and new challenge. 

 

But why Mike Maddux you ask?  Well obviously he is a favorite of Theo and Jed since he went through the interview process.  He fits more of the mentality that Theo and Jed are looking for given this quote on Sabremetrics in an ESPN piece wrote by Jon Greenberg in 2011 “It's art. You can make some things out of them. But there's a lot of real stuff to them also. Good numbers don't lie. Bad numbers can be a little deceptive. You use all the information you can, but when it comes down to it, you got to trust yourself, trust your players and try to put your players in positions where they can succeed.”

 

I suggest everyone to re-read that article and you will find out just why he is the perfect manager for this team to move toward the ultimate goal of a World Series Championship.  Another huge plus by hiring Mike Maddux is the motivation and drive for Mike Maddux to work with his brother Greg.  The feeling is mutual but Greg wanted to again spend time with his family before jumping into baseball full time once again.  At the end of Dale Sveum contract Gregg Maddux will be out of baseball full-time for over 6 years and recently Greg has been slowly getting back into baseball working with the Texas organization. This means he could be looking for something more full-time around the same time Mike Maddux is looking for a coach on his staff. 

 

The timing of Dale Sveum contract which is only 3 year total in length and the time of Mike Maddux kids to get through school seems like a lucky coincidence but we do not know what took place in those meetings between Mike Maddux, Theo Epstein, and Jed Hoyer.  I am not implying that they have a secret deal under the table or anything like that.  But what I am saying is all three men are smart and if Maddux said something to the effect of “if this was three years later, I would take the Cubs job in a heartbeat,” that had to be a factor with giving Sveum only 3 years when the President and GM each have 5 years on their contract (something that is rare).  A good businessman always looks years ahead and plays out each and every scenario he/she can think of.  Theo and Jed are good at what they do and if they think the Maddux brothers might be available in 3 years and Mike is the guy they actually wanted; then hiring Dale to a 3 year deal make sense.  I am assuming they just wanted to see what Dale can do in 3 years in Chicago to see if he is the long term option (which is smart).  Well if you are in the place I am in then you think he is not the long term option.  And oh what do you know after 3 years Mike Maddux looks like he available for the Chicago Cubs new Manger vacancy.

 

Until Next Time…

 

 

Trade Deadline : Should I Stay or Should I Go?

So we are getting closer and closer to trade season which means it is time for my list of players that I think will get traded at the deadline.

1.     Alfonso Soriano:  The Cubs have a lot of outfielders on the current ML roster and in the minor leagues so trading Soriano makes sense.  The thing that hurts his trade value is his NTC, production, and contract but that will not prevent Theo and Co. to pull the trigger on a deal.  I expect Soriano to be traded as a part of a package unless he starts heating up then he could get traded on this own.  I honestly think the front office is ready to move on and Soriano is the one big blip (besides Marmol) from the Hendry Era.

2.     Matt Garza:  I have been on both corners of the Garza debate on whether to keep him or trade him but I think trading him makes the most sense right now given the weak pitching market.  Garza is probably the Cubs biggest trading chip and if you pair him with a reliever or position player then there is no reason you can get a nice package of prospects.  As we speak the Rangers and Giants both have serious interest in acquiring pitching and it is still early.

3.     Scott Feldman:  Maybe the first player to be traded to maintain his trade value and he could fetch a top 150 prospect right now by himself.  I believe the Cubs will also pair Feldman with a position player like a David DeJesus to get a top 100 prospect and a mid-level minor leaguer.  The Cubs can afford to trade Feldman because they have proved they can pick him his type of talent on the FA market for a steal.

4.     David DeJesus:  He will be traded and likely will be a part of a package to maximize return.  With the amount of outfielders and David being in the last year of his deal it just makes sense to trade the veteran.  A playoff team always could use a David DeJesus type so expect him to garner a lot of interest.

5.     Kevin Gregg:  I think Gregg is also gone at the deadline because he has proven he can set-up and close games on a team that has struggled with their bullpen.  Also obtaining relievers during the deadline is a tricky thing so his value might be through the roof.

6.     Carlos Marmol:  The Cubs may decide to wait until the waiver period in the hopes of a team losing a reliever to injury and someone claiming him.  But that won’t say they will try to dump him at the deadline.  Honestly I do think just like Soriano the Cubs are going to cut their ties with the remaining Hendry Era players on the current roster.  Marmol could net a bag of balls or PTBNL.

7.     Cody Ransom or Luis Valbuena:  It  will be Ransom or Valbuena that is traded at the deadline or during the waiver period.  The Cubs currently have Junior Lake in AAA Iowa tearing it up and Josh Vitters as well (although he is not as attractive).  Ransom to me seems like the likely fit given his age, contract, and he does not fit in the Cubs plans for the future.  Although Valbuena has a higher trade value because of he is younger; he may mean more to the Cubs than his trade value would suggest.

8.     Brett Jackson:  I think the 24 year old outfielder’ who was a top 40 prospect in 2012 is traded; once again a apart of a bigger package.  A team is going to see value in BJax regardless of numbers and putting him with another player or two could fetch and impact prospect or more.  Brett Jackson just does not fit the mold of what the Cubs want to do which is why I think they drafted two potential impact CF the past two drafts and are carrying guys on the 25 man roster like Borbon. He also could be described as a failed Hendry prospect so they could follow what they did with Soriano and Marmol.

9.     Josh Vitters: Again with Lake emerging, upside with Vitters, and the possibility of adding him along with other tradable players means the Cubs could yet again obtain top prospect talent.  Just like Jackson he does not really fit the mold of a Theo type prospect which could be a sign of him being dealt.

Guys they will keep but could be viewed as tradable-

1.     Nate Schierholtz: I think the Cubs really like what he brings to the table not only at the plate but in the outfield.  His value to the team at his cost far exceeds his trade value.  Nate may not be a starter next year depending on moves but he would be just as valuable as a bench player never less,  If Schierholtz is the Cubs starting RF in 2014 I will have no problem with it.

2.     Scott Hairston:  Right handed power bats off the bench are hard to come by and if the Cubs trade DeJesus and Soriano then they are likely to hold onto Hairston and Schierholtz.  Hairston has another year on his deal.

3.     Dioner Navarro:  I just do not see a team out there trading for Navarro and I think the Cubs have their backup catcher for the rest of this year and maybe next.

4.     James Russell:  The lefty is needed in the Cubs pen and if they end up trading both Marmol and Gregg they need some kind of staple in the pen.  That is Russell.

5.     Carlos Villanueva: With the Cubs dealing both Feldman and Garza; CarVill should move back into the starting role for the rest of the season.  He also is really cheap for the rest of this season and next but his value to the Cubs is greater than his value to another team.

6.     Darwin Barney:  He is cost controlled, defense is hard to replace, and no reason to sell low for the Cubs.

7.     Edwin Jackson:  Makes too much money and Theo is not going to give up on his investment that early.

8.     Travis Wood:  Maybe the best pitcher on the team and unless they are blow away by an offer he is going to stay.

9.     Starlin Castro: COME ON NO CHANCE!  Don’t even say it.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Other Picks

The Chicago Cubs draft talk has been centered around who they will draft first with the drafts 2nd overall pick but they also have picks 41, and 75 could be just an impactful (beyond 108 is anyone's best guess.).  So in this post I am going to lay out 3 players that maybe available when they pick and that the Cubs should and could be interested. So lets get started!!

Pick 41:  A lot hinges on the Cubs first overall pick her so they could go a variety of routes but here are three players I chose to highlight.

Kyle Serrano:  He is going to be a tough sign because he has already committed to play for his Dad at Tenn. but his risk could be worth the reward. His fastball is advanced at 92-94 MPH, has good command with his change-up and breaking pitches, and is rather advanced for a high school pitcher.  The best praise for Serrano by a scout is he is a pitcher, he knows how to pitch and think beyond his years as a pitcher.  He has the upside as a potential #2 pitcher but floor of a bottom of the rotation starter.

Eric Jagielo: A 3rd baseman/Outfielder with good power potential.  If the Cubs draft Bryant they will not draft Jagielo.  His power is there and many scouts think he could remain at 3rd base but he is unusual because some mock draft has him going in the first 20 picks while others have him going in the early 50s.  He is a guy if available at 41 the Cubs should take him.

Matt Krook:  Another pitcher but this lefty can hit 94 on the radar gun!  He has very high upside and an above average curveball.  He has some work but what 18 year old high school player doesn't.  Being 6-foot-4 and only 195 lbs he has room to grow but many argue he maybe the best high school lefty in the draft as far as potential.

Result:  I would like the Cubs to take any of the three if they are available but Matt Krook and Kyer Serrano intrigue me the most. 


Pick 75: This is really hit or miss as far as picks go but there is plenty of talent left to pick from in this range.

Cavan Biggo:  Son of baseball great Craig Biggo has a good bat but other tools need to develop to be an everyday big leaguer.  His ceiling is at best .285 with a .350 OBP but his floor is a utility player.  He also does not really have a position but work ethic could replace that.

Chris Okey:  The guy could be the best defensive catcher in the draft and I love defensive catchers.  He also has great versatility and has the athleticism to play the infield and outfield.  Okey is more of a Biggo type than Cavan for that matter which intrigues me even more. The other good thing about Okey is he can handle the bat according to scouts so he has more than defense and versatility.

Dillon Overton:  Once drafted by Theo and company in the 26th round of the 2012 draft he could be a target for the 3rd round for them this go around.  Overton is a left-handed pitcher who has filled out quite well.  His fastball is in the low to mid 90s and has a good strong delivery according to scouts. His strike out rate over the past couple of years has been around 9 K/9.  He is rather polished so making it to the majors fast is not out of the question.

Result:  I think if Chris Okey is available you take him here.



That does it for my draft preview!  Lets hope the Cubs pick future all-starts!

Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Cubs 2nd Overall Pick

Everyone knows the Cubs will have the number two pick in the draft but what we do not know is who they will nab with that pick.  A lot of that depends on the Astros but many scouts and media outlets are expecting Houston to take 3rd baseman Colin Moran.

This will leave the Cubs with a variety of options obviously but only 3 players really make sense for the Cubs at #2.  Lets take a look at all three-

Mark Appel:  He has all the make-up to be a number one pitcher on any staff.  He struck out 130 batters and walked 23 in 106 innings pitched this season.  His fastball is consistently in the mid 90s but can crank it to 98 when he needs to.  His secondary pitchers have upside but he needs to master command of those pitches. Most scouts agree he is the best player in the draft with a ceiling as a #1 pitcher and the floor of a middle of the rotation type pitcher.  The one thing Appel has that others in the draft do not is the acceleration factor.  He is expected to be more polished making it very possible to arrive in the majors sometime in 2014.

Kris Bryant: Grade 80 power, that is Kris Bryant and many scouts think he could still add muscle to that tall skinny frame.  Scouts have discussed his floor and ceiling extensively which both are pretty amazing.  They think at the lowest end Bryant will hit .270 with 25 HR in the majors.  His ceiling is worthy for a 1st overall pick so if the Cubs get him with their pick you cannot fault them which is a .315+ average with 40+ homers.  Although Bryant has a bat he is not likely to stay at 3rd which could scare off some teams including the Cubs but many scouts think he could be not as good but close to Bryce Harper good defensively in a corner OF spot. He is the most MLB ready bat in the draft and could see the majors at the beginning of 2015.

Jonathan Gray:  The guy has actually a higher upside that Appel but brings more risk.  The other thing he has on Appel is his fastball can be cranked up to triple digits and his slider is thought to be Major League ready.  Gray is more raw so he will need more seasoning and also will need to develop his change-up and needs help with his overall command.  There is also the issue of the banned substance that he tested positive for in a pre-draft drug screening.  The banned substance he did not have a prescription for and thus adds some character issues that could hurt his draft stock.  Regardless, Gray's upside is Justin Verlander plain and simple. Gray could reach the majors in 2014 but 2015 looks more likely.


Who Is It: Both my pick for the first round and who I think the Cubs will go with is Mark Appel.  There is no sure thing in the draft but Appel is as sure as you can get.  The Cubs cannot afford to miss on Appel if he is there at #2 so the Cubs will take him and likely see him pitching at Wrigley in 2014.  Adding Appel to an already surprising strong rotation of Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and possibly Matt Garza could make the Cubs a force when facing them in a series.  The Cubs need pitching and they cannot go wrong selecting the best player in the draft.

Side Note:  If the Astros select Mark Appel first overall then I think the Cubs should take Kris Bryant with the 2nd overall pick.  Both Gray and Bryant are both gambles but Bryant has an impact middle of the order bat to put with the Cubs already young core of Castro and Rizzo.  Add that to uber prospects Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora; you have something really special.

In the End:  If the Cubs do select one of the 3 I listed I do not see how someone can be upset.  All three players have their positives and negatives but all have a justifiable reason to be draft 2nd overall by the Cubs.

Rizzo & Cubs Strike It Rich and Trades Coming... Plus Signings?

·         The Anthony Rizzo deal for the Cubs is fantastic but now  I think it maybe even better than first thought after seeing the breakdown  Rizzo will get a $2M signing bonus, make $750K in 2013, $1.25M in 2014, $5M in ’15 &’16, $7M in ’17 & ’18, $11M in ’19, and teams options of $14.5M for ’20 & ’21.  Special thanks to Jon Heyman for the breakdown on this.  Basically making this a 9 year deal worth $70M with incentives.

·         With the Cubs only paying Rizzo $14M over the next 3 years it allows the Cubs to hand out more money to other FA and able assume more dollars in contracts via trades.  The deal also does not get expensive for several years which in turn helps the Cubs because by then the money from the renovation, TV deals, signage, etc… should be really paying off.

·         The next step now in the words of Tom Loxas of CubsDen and others is to lock up Shark and Garza (once proved healthy).  I am on board with both but only if the money is right with Garza.  I think a deal modeled after Edwin Jackson for Garza is a good starting point for the Cubs and his representatives.  Do I think Garza would sign for that, not likely unless a NTC is given, which is not going to happen either.  I really do not have grasp on what Shark would get on the open market so I will leave that guessing up to you.

·         If the Cubs did lock up Garza and Shark then they could be looking to really cash in on players like DeJesus, Soriano, CarVill, and Feldman as far as prospects.  I could then see them packaging the prospects from those deals with current prospects in their farm like Baez, Vogelbach, Johnson, and/or others for a premier young impact player like Giancarlo Stanton for example.  Or they could use those prospects and trade them for other prospects which is rare but it has happened.

·         Once again if the Cubs did extend Garza and Shark (and deal the others listed above) then their rotation looks pretty strong for 2014 with Shark, Garza, T. Wood, and E. Jackson.  Then if they draft Gray or Appel and they are as advertised then wow 2015 looks pretty dang great!

·         One guy I think the Cubs need to try to acquire besides Stanton is Jurickson Profar.  The guy is going to be a stud, he is near ML ready right now, and is being dangled by the Rangers but not for pieces the Cubs necessarily have. Although a lot could change if Texas has pitching woes and Garza comes back strong.  Texas had a lot of interest in Garza last season remember.  I also still hold to the fact that a prospect exchange is still very possible between the Rangers and Cubs.

·         I love trade scenario’s so how about this one-

Cubs get- Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, and Mike Olt

Rangers get- Matt Garza, Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, and Josh Vitters

 

The Cubs would have their young dream team infield assembled and ready for the 2014 season with Rizzo at 1^st, Profar at 2b, Castro at SS, and Olt at 3^rd.  I know it is a pipe dream but I can dream can’t I?

 

Until Next Time….

 

 

Quick Hits....

Quick Hits-

·         The Cubs traded Alberto Gonzalez to the Yankees for either a PTBNL or Cash.

·         Kameron Loe cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than reporting to Iowa.

·         Kyuji Fujikawa is set to return to the Cubs bullpen today and Dolis has been optioned to Iowa to make room for him.

·         It is very likely the Cubs either take Gray or Appel depending on what the Astros do.  There has been no talk of what player the Astros prefer. Drooling over the idea of a Price, Shark, Garza, Appel, and Wood rotation right now.  That is if they keep the three that are currently on the roster.

·         Mr. Kevin Gregg is the official closer of the Chicago Cubs per Dale Sveum.

·         Ian Stewart went on waivers and was not claimed so he was optioned to Iowa.

·         Ian Stewart and David Sappelt both deleted their twitter accounts which is not really news but it is, at least to me since I followed them on Twitter.

·         The Cubs next big target just might be Masahiro Tanaka who is putting up big numbers at the age of 24 in Japan.  He could be posted after this season and he is a player I see the Cubs betting hard on.  Check out his numbers found here.

·         Brett at Bleacher Nation has the latest on the Wrigley Renovation found here and here.

·         Three impact prospects the Cubs should target via deadline trades are Nick Castellanos, Jurickson Profar, and Jedd Gyorko to either speed up the rebuilding process or flip for an impact player like David Price or Giancarlo Stanton.

·         A source told me the Cubs would have to be blown away to trade Travis Wood and Jeff Samardzija so a trade is unlikely.  But says Feldman, Garza, and CarVill are very much available.

·         The closing days for Marmol are likely over as a Chicago Cub.  They will try to improve his numbers though long relief and doing some set-up work in which he has succeeded in.

·         Here is an idea that I have.  Why not send Marmol down to Iowa and stretch him out into a starting pitcher.  Just a thought. He has started before.

·         Ken Rosenthal says that Chase Headley is a perfect fit for the Cubs which I just do not see.  The cost of players, the lack of control, and the age of Headley make no sense for the Cubs right now.

·         Did you know Jorge Soler is hitting .290/.374/.559!  The guy should be called up soon to AA IMO.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Talk: Price, Prospects, and More....

Here is the latest-

·         Mr. Jon Heyman labels the Cubs and Rangers as landing spots for Tampa Bay’s David Price.  This is purely speculation because of all the things that could happen between now and then but is it from an anonymous source so that is at least something.  Find the story here.

·         I talked to source of mine who I have not spoken to until last year’s off-season but he says the Cubs will being going into this trade deadline to acquire as many top prospects as possible to flip to other teams for young ML talent that maybe available at the deadline or next off-season.  The prospects he said the Cubs may might get in a trade not “make sense” for the Cubs but may make sense for another team.  He tells me the Cubs have their sights set high to somewhat accelerate the rebuilding process by attempting to acquire players like Stanton or Price.  He even said the Cubs could try to deal for a player like Jurickson Profar to attempt to move him for a player like David Price.

·         The same source also told me that while the Cubs have not given up on Brett Jackson or Josh Vitters they may look to trade them both at the deadline or next off-season.

·         Brett from Bleacher Nation has a Cubs injury update found here.

·         The Cubs plan on taking either Appel or Gray with their 2^nd overall pick.

·         Cubs Den has two great pieces on players being a building block or on the trading block found here and  here.  Make sure you look for the 3^rdpart soon at www.chicagonow.com. 

Bruce Levine Chats it up-

·         The Cubs have very left-handed which is why Sappelt is still with the Cubs and why he is still getting starts.

·         The Cubs may DFA Michael Bowden to make room for Fujikawa who comes off the DL next week.

·         Bruce sees the Cubs trading 3-5 players are the deadline.  (I honestly see about 6 ML players dealt named Garza, Marmol, Soriano, DeJesus, CarVill, and Russell.)

·         DeJesus is more valuable to this team in the next two months than trading him now.

·         Sounds like Bruce has some concerns about CarVill and thinks he may come back down to earth once the weather heats up.

·         It is too early to determine who will play SS in the future for the Cubs but the Cubs have a nice problem with Baez and Castro.

·         Baez could be up in the big leagues by next June and Soler is probably about a year away.

·         Levine says the Cubs do not have the players to get David Price but mentions Baez as a piece even though he does not view him as a realty to trade. (I think if the Cubs started with Baez and added Johnson among others they could get that done.)

·         Szczur is a top of the order hitter while BJax is a HR-RBI hitter.

·         The front office will trade anyone if it benefits the Cubs and follows the direction the front office has.

Until Next Time…