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Thursday, June 13, 2013
Trade Deadline : Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Other Picks
Pick 41: A lot hinges on the Cubs first overall pick her so they could go a variety of routes but here are three players I chose to highlight.
Kyle Serrano: He is going to be a tough sign because he has already committed to play for his Dad at Tenn. but his risk could be worth the reward. His fastball is advanced at 92-94 MPH, has good command with his change-up and breaking pitches, and is rather advanced for a high school pitcher. The best praise for Serrano by a scout is he is a pitcher, he knows how to pitch and think beyond his years as a pitcher. He has the upside as a potential #2 pitcher but floor of a bottom of the rotation starter.
Eric Jagielo: A 3rd baseman/Outfielder with good power potential. If the Cubs draft Bryant they will not draft Jagielo. His power is there and many scouts think he could remain at 3rd base but he is unusual because some mock draft has him going in the first 20 picks while others have him going in the early 50s. He is a guy if available at 41 the Cubs should take him.
Matt Krook: Another pitcher but this lefty can hit 94 on the radar gun! He has very high upside and an above average curveball. He has some work but what 18 year old high school player doesn't. Being 6-foot-4 and only 195 lbs he has room to grow but many argue he maybe the best high school lefty in the draft as far as potential.
Result: I would like the Cubs to take any of the three if they are available but Matt Krook and Kyer Serrano intrigue me the most.
Pick 75: This is really hit or miss as far as picks go but there is plenty of talent left to pick from in this range.
Cavan Biggo: Son of baseball great Craig Biggo has a good bat but other tools need to develop to be an everyday big leaguer. His ceiling is at best .285 with a .350 OBP but his floor is a utility player. He also does not really have a position but work ethic could replace that.
Chris Okey: The guy could be the best defensive catcher in the draft and I love defensive catchers. He also has great versatility and has the athleticism to play the infield and outfield. Okey is more of a Biggo type than Cavan for that matter which intrigues me even more. The other good thing about Okey is he can handle the bat according to scouts so he has more than defense and versatility.
Dillon Overton: Once drafted by Theo and company in the 26th round of the 2012 draft he could be a target for the 3rd round for them this go around. Overton is a left-handed pitcher who has filled out quite well. His fastball is in the low to mid 90s and has a good strong delivery according to scouts. His strike out rate over the past couple of years has been around 9 K/9. He is rather polished so making it to the majors fast is not out of the question.
Result: I think if Chris Okey is available you take him here.
That does it for my draft preview! Lets hope the Cubs pick future all-starts!
Cubs Pre-Draft Analysis: The Cubs 2nd Overall Pick
This will leave the Cubs with a variety of options obviously but only 3 players really make sense for the Cubs at #2. Lets take a look at all three-
Mark Appel: He has all the make-up to be a number one pitcher on any staff. He struck out 130 batters and walked 23 in 106 innings pitched this season. His fastball is consistently in the mid 90s but can crank it to 98 when he needs to. His secondary pitchers have upside but he needs to master command of those pitches. Most scouts agree he is the best player in the draft with a ceiling as a #1 pitcher and the floor of a middle of the rotation type pitcher. The one thing Appel has that others in the draft do not is the acceleration factor. He is expected to be more polished making it very possible to arrive in the majors sometime in 2014.
Kris Bryant: Grade 80 power, that is Kris Bryant and many scouts think he could still add muscle to that tall skinny frame. Scouts have discussed his floor and ceiling extensively which both are pretty amazing. They think at the lowest end Bryant will hit .270 with 25 HR in the majors. His ceiling is worthy for a 1st overall pick so if the Cubs get him with their pick you cannot fault them which is a .315+ average with 40+ homers. Although Bryant has a bat he is not likely to stay at 3rd which could scare off some teams including the Cubs but many scouts think he could be not as good but close to Bryce Harper good defensively in a corner OF spot. He is the most MLB ready bat in the draft and could see the majors at the beginning of 2015.
Jonathan Gray: The guy has actually a higher upside that Appel but brings more risk. The other thing he has on Appel is his fastball can be cranked up to triple digits and his slider is thought to be Major League ready. Gray is more raw so he will need more seasoning and also will need to develop his change-up and needs help with his overall command. There is also the issue of the banned substance that he tested positive for in a pre-draft drug screening. The banned substance he did not have a prescription for and thus adds some character issues that could hurt his draft stock. Regardless, Gray's upside is Justin Verlander plain and simple. Gray could reach the majors in 2014 but 2015 looks more likely.
Who Is It: Both my pick for the first round and who I think the Cubs will go with is Mark Appel. There is no sure thing in the draft but Appel is as sure as you can get. The Cubs cannot afford to miss on Appel if he is there at #2 so the Cubs will take him and likely see him pitching at Wrigley in 2014. Adding Appel to an already surprising strong rotation of Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and possibly Matt Garza could make the Cubs a force when facing them in a series. The Cubs need pitching and they cannot go wrong selecting the best player in the draft.
Side Note: If the Astros select Mark Appel first overall then I think the Cubs should take Kris Bryant with the 2nd overall pick. Both Gray and Bryant are both gambles but Bryant has an impact middle of the order bat to put with the Cubs already young core of Castro and Rizzo. Add that to uber prospects Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora; you have something really special.
In the End: If the Cubs do select one of the 3 I listed I do not see how someone can be upset. All three players have their positives and negatives but all have a justifiable reason to be draft 2nd overall by the Cubs.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Rizzo & Cubs Strike It Rich and Trades Coming... Plus Signings?
· The Anthony Rizzo deal for the Cubs is fantastic but now I think it maybe even better than first thought after seeing the breakdown Rizzo will get a $2M signing bonus, make $750K in 2013, $1.25M in 2014, $5M in ’15 &’16, $7M in ’17 & ’18, $11M in ’19, and teams options of $14.5M for ’20 & ’21. Special thanks to Jon Heyman for the breakdown on this. Basically making this a 9 year deal worth $70M with incentives.
· With the Cubs only paying Rizzo $14M over the next 3 years it allows the Cubs to hand out more money to other FA and able assume more dollars in contracts via trades. The deal also does not get expensive for several years which in turn helps the Cubs because by then the money from the renovation, TV deals, signage, etc… should be really paying off.
· The next step now in the words of Tom Loxas of CubsDen and others is to lock up Shark and Garza (once proved healthy). I am on board with both but only if the money is right with Garza. I think a deal modeled after Edwin Jackson for Garza is a good starting point for the Cubs and his representatives. Do I think Garza would sign for that, not likely unless a NTC is given, which is not going to happen either. I really do not have grasp on what Shark would get on the open market so I will leave that guessing up to you.
· If the Cubs did lock up Garza and Shark then they could be looking to really cash in on players like DeJesus, Soriano, CarVill, and Feldman as far as prospects. I could then see them packaging the prospects from those deals with current prospects in their farm like Baez, Vogelbach, Johnson, and/or others for a premier young impact player like Giancarlo Stanton for example. Or they could use those prospects and trade them for other prospects which is rare but it has happened.
· Once again if the Cubs did extend Garza and Shark (and deal the others listed above) then their rotation looks pretty strong for 2014 with Shark, Garza, T. Wood, and E. Jackson. Then if they draft Gray or Appel and they are as advertised then wow 2015 looks pretty dang great!
· One guy I think the Cubs need to try to acquire besides Stanton is Jurickson Profar. The guy is going to be a stud, he is near ML ready right now, and is being dangled by the Rangers but not for pieces the Cubs necessarily have. Although a lot could change if Texas has pitching woes and Garza comes back strong. Texas had a lot of interest in Garza last season remember. I also still hold to the fact that a prospect exchange is still very possible between the Rangers and Cubs.
· I love trade scenario’s so how about this one-
Cubs get- Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, and Mike Olt
Rangers get- Matt Garza, Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, and Josh Vitters
The Cubs would have their young dream team infield assembled and ready for the 2014 season with Rizzo at 1st, Profar at 2b, Castro at SS, and Olt at 3rd. I know it is a pipe dream but I can dream can’t I?
Until Next Time….