Hot Stove Cubbies 2013 Chicago Cubs Player Stat Projections

It is that time of year to do my stat projections for the 2013 Chicago Cubs. It should be noted that I have listed only the 25 man roster in the past but since the Cubs some impact players starting on the DL I have included them (Matt Garza and Scott Baker). I have omitted Ian Stewart because I do not think he will play a game in a Cubs uniform this year and I did not include Brett Jackson because his call up status is in question.

I predict the Chicago Cubs to go 76-86 which is good for 4th place in the division ahead of the Brewers. Now let’s get down to the 2013 Hot Stove Cubbies Stat Projections for the Chicago Cubs.

Cubs Hit and Run: Injured Cubs, Trades, and The Plan

· The Tigers are looking for pen help and a platoon partner for LF so I ask again why not send them Marmol and Soriano for prospects or a deal headlined by Porcello?
· Edwin Jackson will start the Cubs home opener.
· Starlin Peralta has been sent back to Cubs camp. He was a Rule 5 draftee by the Dbacks.
· Garza it taking steps forward with no setbacks.
· The Cubs feel the presence of teams watching Soriano but no substantive talks have taken place says Nick Cafardo. He states the Phillies have interest.
· The Cubs reassigned Baez and Soler to minor league camp as expected but they could be back in no time. (not this year though).
· Now the information from my source that I put on twitter yesterday.
· The Cubs “planned on” dealing Garza before Opening Day for a package around a young prospect 3rd baseman.
· The signed Stewart as a back-up in case they were not able to trade Garza.
· The Cubs were shopping Garza to Texas, the Angels, the Tigers, and Dbacks.
· The Cubs had their eyes on Nick Castellanos of the Tigers, Mike Olt of the Rangers, and Mark Trumbo of the Angels.
· The Cubs liked the idea of Justin Upton but only wanted to trade Garza for him in which the Dbacks were not interested.
· Since Garza and Stewart went down with injuries it changed the route they wanted to travel before Opening Day.
· The Cubs signed several pitchers to ensure they had depth in the rotation so they could trade Garza before Opening Day.
· Now the Cubs are watching the transaction wire for a possible 3rd baseman to take the place of Stewart.
· Brent Lillibridge is fully expected to make the team.
- David Kaplan has a great piece on the Cubs moving out of Wrigley found here http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/kapman/rosemont-cubs-suburban-mayor-makes-his-pitch

- Scott Baker will be shut down after inflammation and soreness from his start on Sunday. He will be checked out then a plan will come after that.
- Ian Stewart will start the season on the DL because he cannot run.
- Just like my source said yesterday Brent Lillibridge will be a lock for the 25 man roster says Sveum.
- The Cubs officially signed Armando Rivero to a minor league contact.
- The Yankees could still be in on Soriano even after signing Brennan Boesch because they just released Matt Diaz.
- The Tigers are looking to trade Porcello for a reliever. Again why no Marmol?

Now the latest from Levine:

- Detroit has not been interest in Marmol.
- Neither Marmol or Soriano will be dealt before Opening Day. (BACKTRACKING LEVINE ALERT)
- Rusin is on the inside track of making the team.
- Baez will start in Daytona and quickly be moved up to AA Tenn.
- With injuries this spring the team will be looking to the waiver wire but a guy like Rusin could get a chance because how he has done this Spring.
- Clevenger is not likely to make the team.
- Sappelt will be the right-handed OF bat off the bench Levine speculates.
- The Cubs plan on having Stewart on the DL and not release him.
- Jackson will be called up by June or July.
- Cubs are still not interested in Lohse.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Hit and Run: Baez, Stewart, Vogelbach, and Injuries

· Looks like everyone is getting a whole lot healthier with Starlin Castro to be back to game action today. Ian Stewart and Brent Lillibridge will see game action off the bench on Thursday while Josh Vitters is expected to be back a few days after that.
· Many media outlets are reporting Dan Vogelbach is taking some grounders at 3rd this spring which is surprising. Vogelbach has trimmed down but it sounds like the Cubs are just doing their due diligence at seeing if he can handle the hot corner giving the black hole that is presently there without much depth in the minors.
· The likely hood of Ian Stewart making the team is still good baring a setback considering the amount he is owed and the lack of depth at the position.
· The Chicago Cubs front office told Carlos Marmol’s agent to expect to be traded this season (likely before the deadline).
· Garza could only miss the first two weeks of the season and make his 2013 debut against the Brewers on April 19th if everything goes as planned.
· Garza just started playing catch but they are really taking it easy to prevent any more setbacks.
· The Tigers want to trade either Smyly or Porcello before Opening Day because the front office does not view either one as a part of their bullpen. Both are battling for the 5th spot in the rotation. The Cubs have interest in both.
· In case you missed it the Cubs signed Armando Rivero from the DR.
· Scott Baker is getting closer to Cactus League action who is scheduled to start a minor league game then make his debut if all goes well after that start.
· The Cubs assigned Logan Watkins, Trey McNutt, Alberto Cabrera, Robert Whitenack, and Nick Struck to minor league camp.
· From most of the MLB mock drafts it looks like the Cubs will either take Appel or Manaea at #2.

Now the latest from Levine-

· Cubs like Stewart’s power potential which is why he will be around. Vitters will start in AAA.
· Javier Baez has looked great to Levine’s surprise.
· Szczur has more to learn this season but is a big season to prove he is a future ML.
· Cubs first pick will be a pitcher in the draft but may also be considering drafting a 3rd baseman.
· Garza will be ready by the end of April beginning of May.
· He really like Rusin and Rondon for the pen but not sure on Bowden.
· Dan Vogelbach could make it as a left fielder.
· WARNING! LEVINE BACKTRACKING… Market for Marmol has been strong but unless someone loses a closer or set-up guy he will stick around.
· Clevenger will likely not make.
· Cubs will get all their offense from Rizzo, Castro, and Soriano.
· Levine hearts Barney
· Yankees not interested in Soriano.
· Baez could be the exception to the rule on Abs in the minors. He could make the team in 2014.

Until Next Time….

Cubs Hit and Run: Marmol, Prospects, SP, and More.....

- Matt Garza looks like he could miss most of April with his lat issue and is expected to start the season on the DL.

- Scott Baker is progressing well but the Cubs are not going to push him and he is likely to start the season on the DL as well.

- The Cubs have renewed contracts with their 21 pre-arbitration players.

- I asked a old-time scout friend of mine to compare Dan Vogelbach, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez to players of the past (which he was reluctant to do) and he said Vogelbach reminds him of a young Mo Vaughn, Jorge Soler reminds him Gary Sheffield especially because of his bat speed, and he says Javier Baez is tough to judge because he can turn into so many different players. He did say the three players he sees when he looks at Baez is Barry Larkin, Miguel Tejada, and Dave Concepcion. Pretty excitable comparisons to say the least for all three players.

- It looks like Carlos Villanueva will start the season in the rotation with Garza being down with injury.

- Sveum likes Vogelbach; saying the looks like a guy who can just hit, he is more patient than most guys his age, and he has good bat speed.

- There was a barrage of reports yesterday about Carlos Marmol being on the move… eventually. Bruce Levine started the talk with him saying several teams are taking a look at acquiring Carlos Marmol and naming the Tigers are one of the teams.

- The other teams he did not mention but the Rangers and Angels have also been “in” Marmol this season. Both also have a need for a reliever.

- It should be noted that Marmol has the power to veto a trade to four West Coast teams but has already approved a trade to go to the Angels before the Haren trade fell apart.

- Phil Rogers chimes in and says that Rick Porcello would be a possible target for the Cubs in Marmol talks. He also speculates that Soriano could be involved in those same trade talks. To me a Porcello and mid-range prospect or two for Soriano and Marmol with the Tigers pickup all of Marmol’s contract and the Cubs paying all but $10M of Soriano’s contract sounds pretty good.

- Injured Cub Ian Stewart took batting and fielding practice along with jogging yesterday but Sveum does not seem as positive about Stewart making the team saying he is a big question mark and stating how good Valbuena is doing. All in all I see Stewart making the team unless there is a setback.

- Jeff Samardzija gets the Opening Day nod.

- If the Tigers add Soriano, their outfield would be jammed packed which means one of outfielders could be on the move (maybe even to the Cubs). Those outfielders could be Avisail Garcia, Quentin Berry, Brennan Boesch, or Andy Dirks. I suppose I would take Avisail Garcia out of the group considering his age, he is right-handed, and decent success in the minors. Plus he has options and would not take a spot on the 25 man roster.

- Many media members decided to poo-poo Levine’s report including Wittenmyer who says there is nothing to the reports of trade interest for Marmol especially with the Tigers. He goes on to bury Levine by saying the Cubs do not expect to move him until the deadline this summer. Not only that but Paul Sullivan says the Tigers have not discussed a Marmol deal either. So someone is very wrong and very right here.

- The Cubs are not interested in Kyle Lohse and they should not be.

- The Cubs are scouting Scott Kazmir who is on a minor league deal with the Indians. Kazmir recently pitched 3 innings gave up 3 hits and struck out 5. Not sure why a scout would be there unless they are scouting another player on the Indians.

- Starlin Castro is hopeful to return this weekend to game action after straining his left hamstring.

Here is the latest from Levine-

- The Cubs would be interested in a trade with Tigers but he could see them going after Castellenos rather than Porcello.
- Cubs want Castillo to catch 110-120 games but he sees Navarro getting more playing time than a traditional backup.
- No on Kyle Lohse
- The Cubs are hoping that Junior Lake and Brett Jackson have a strong first three months at Iowa so they can get a mid-season call up.
- Yankees are not interested in Soriano and the Cubs are hesitant to move him because they need protection for Castro and Rizzo.
- There are no locks for pen regardless of players being out of options.
- Levine things Junior Lake will be the starting 3B for the Cubs in two years.
- Sappelt and McDonald will battle for the 5th spot in the outfield.
- Brett Jackson looks good this spring.
- Cubs not interested in veteran pitching at this point. They want to develop their own.
- Kane County could see Soler and Almora start there this season.
- David DeJesus is a July trade candidate.
- Fujikawa will be the closer by April because he is convinced Marmol is traded by Opening Day. We actually agree on this.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Hit And Run: Soriano, Garza, Cubs Sites, more...

-First off mad props to Bleacher Nation for their write up on possible changes with the Cubs logo, uniform, and jumbotron. It is a must read.
-Likewise can be said about John Arguello at Cubs Den. He has a couple good pieces on Junior Lake and Theo not settling. Please read both.
-There is a rumor out there by a person on twitter named @NYSportsPodcast saying a source of his is saying the Yankees have started talks with the Cubs about Alfonso Soriano. I have not heard anything and other major Cubs sites are currently silent. As with all rumors I will try to keep you updated.
-Ian Stewart is a week away from starting to hit again which is really hurting his chances of making the team.
Dontrelle Willis is pain free and throwing again in minor league camp. Wish nothing but the best for Mr. Willis.
Starlin Castro’s tight hamstring will only keep him out a couple games.
-Carlos Marmol is the closer unless traded.
-The person who would benefit the most from a Soriano trade is not Brett Jackson but David Sappelt because the Cubs really like what he brings to the team and is not a “prospect” anymore. He is expected to already make the team but Soriano leaving could open up a starting spot in the outfield.
-Matt Garza threw yesterday for the first time since hurting his left lat. He felt good but says he is not going to rush anything. Sveum expects the pitcher to be ready by Opening Day.
-Robinson Cano received an offer from the Yankees that is described as significant but not something he would likely jump at. Unlike many others in the media I believe the Cubs will be players for Cano because offense at 2nd base is at a premium and when it becomes available you pursue it.

Levine’s Latest-

-Soriano has not been traded because the -Cubs want someone to protect Castro and Rizzo.
-Baez is two years away from the big leagues.
-Cubs will trade Marmol by Opening Day.
2014-2015 will be the Cubs year to sign big free agents.
-The Cubs are likely to draft a power arm with their #2 pick in the draft this year.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Hit and Run: Spring Training Rumors and Notes

The Cubs traded Tony Campana to the Diamondbacks for Erick Leal and Jesus Castillo both teenage right-handed pitchers. I follow the same surprise as most that the Cubs actually got value back from Campana who is a borderline 25^th man on the roster.

Matt Garza has a mild strain in his lat and will be rested for about a week then amp up his pitching after that. It is good news according to Jed Hoyer and it is too early to tell if this impacts his 1^ststart of the season.

Baseball prospectus released its top 100 prospect list in which Javier Baez comes in at 17, Almora at 21, Soler, at 29, Vogelbach at 87, Vizcanio at 88, and Candelario at 99.

Baseball America also posted their top 100 list which includes 4 Cubs. Javier Baez (16), Albert Almora (33), Jorge Soler (34), and Arodys Vizcanio (83).

So Soriano does not want to be traded but if the Cubs struggle he would be open to a trade giving a lot of factors but most importantly his age. Soriano says he and his agent have had talks with the Cubs FO and stated he gave them a list of 6 or 7 teams in the East or Central Leagues he would accept a trade to. Jed Hoyer also confirmed this report.

I think I can figure out the 6 or 7 teams based on this preference. I think the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Tigers are no brainers here. I think Texas could be in there as well given his familiarity. The other two I think could be the Phillies and Mets but that is a shot in the dark there.

Levine had his chat thing so let’s check it out.

• Demand will determine the market for Matt Garza.
• Navarro could make his way to starting if Castillo struggles.
• No change Baez or Soler are a September call up this year.
• If Levine had to pick where Garza ends up he would pick the Rangers or Blue Jays.
• Jackson will start in AAA unless there is an injury.
• If Stewart fails this year they will turn to Valbuena or Vitters to replace him.
• Angels could revisit a Marmol trade with Madson injury.
• Garza needs to prove healthy before any contract demands are made. Bruce throws around $15-$20M a year for him.
• The front office will have to consider trading position players for pitching or else they will end up like the Royals.
• The best 5 starters will be there opening day regardless.
• Cubs are happy with their bullpen but could trade for a guy like Brian Wilson if they trade Marmol.
• Concepcion is missing but will start in high A.
• Samardzija impressed him the most this Spring.
• No word on Dontrelle Willis this spring.
• No chance Soler ends up with the Chicago Cubs this year.
• Baez will make it to the big leagues first out of the top prospects.
• Junior Lake looks impressive but his destination on the field is either LF or 3^rd because he is too big for SS or 2b.
• Soriano could be traded by Opening Day.
• Cubs do not look like a .500 team this year.
• Stewart or Valbuena will get the starting job at 3^rd this season.

Until Next Time…

Post Valentine's Day Cubs Talk

HAPPY POST VALENTINE’S DAY!

· The Angels and Cubs have had recent trade discussions about a “few players” as source tells me. Not knowing the players I think it could be Garza and/or Marmol considering they have had interest in both previously.

· Jeff Samardzija is not interested in a long-term deal yet. But he was offered one last fall to the tune of 5 years.

· Here is a great write up on Javier Baez onBleacherNation by Sahdev Sharma who I suggest following on twitter as well.

· Casey Coleman will be working his way back but only as a reliever.

· Travis Wood is looking a lot better than he did than last year at this time.

· As of right now it seems the rotation will be Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman and Travis Wood.

· The Cubs are going to “baby” Scott Baker who is coming back from arm issues.

· Carlos Villanueva will be pitching out of the bullpen as a long reliever/spot starter.

· Matt Garza is looking more impressive than he was last year at this time.

· While Jeff Samardzija looks in playoff form.

· A trend we see that gives the Cubs a leg up on signing free agents can be summed up in this Scott Hairston quote”There was a lot of interest early on, but I don’t think there was enough interest to make anything happen. Interest is a word that can be described in many ways. The Cubs had real interest and they made things happen. I was happy to have both New York teams want me there, but when it came down to it, the Cubs wanted me the most, and that’s why I’m here.”

· Early interest has really benefited the Cubs this off-season.

· Welington Castillo will be the starter behind the plate with Dioner Navarro as his backup.

· The Cubs will give Hairston, Castillo, and others a look at first since the Cubs do not have a true back-up on the roster.

· It seems early on that Brent Lillibridge has the inside track for a bench spot on this team. He has played every position on the field except catcher and pitcher.

· In case you missed it Tony Campana was DFA assignment and looks like he could be traded within the 10 day time period otherwise he will be claimed off waivers by someone.

· Speaking of Campana he was claimed by the White Sox in August off of waivers but pulled by after a trade was not reached.

· It is unlikely the Cubs make a move for a back-up first baseman but it is not impossible.

· Brett Jackson has no plans to start in Iowa this season, he is determined to make the Cubs roster.

· I think the Cubs should beef up their minor league system with some vets by inking Grady Sizemore and Freddy Sanchez to minor league deals.

· Kyle Lohse does not make sense for the Cubs according to everyone.

· The Cubs adding more night games this season seems in jeopardy.

· Brett Lillibridge sounds like could get spot starts and lead off against lefties.

· Do not count out David Sappelt starting many games for the Cubs this season. The Cubs front office loves his attitude, defense, and bat.

· The Cubs are still likely to make a move or two before Opening Day.

· Please check out the FANTASTIC write up on aSoriano-for-Stubbs trade on Cubs Den. I would be all for that trade!

Quick Bruce Levine Hits-

· Garza will get a lot more on the open market than Jackson. DUH!

· Someone will trade for Campana soon.

· Angels could be interested in Marmol if Madson’s injury is bad enough.

· Return on Marmol would be a very good younger player.

· Brett Jackson will not be traded.

· He sees Garza on the Blue Jays or Rangers by August 1^st this season.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Hits: Pitchers and Catchers Report Edition

• Every pitcher and catcher was basically already in camp before today while many position players have reported as well.
• Alfonso Soriano rumors are increasing yet again and this time circling around the Yankees.  A few days ago Hal Steinbrenner said in order for the Yankees to be a championship calibre team they need another right-handed bat.  The Yankees have a heavy left-handed outfield and their recently signed DH Hafner is a lefty so there is a clear need for a bat like Soriano. The Yankees know Soriano quite well having played for them for years.  The Yankees had interested in Scott Hairston before the Cubs signed him so trading for Soriano makes a ton of sense since the Cubs are likely to pay all but 10 million over 2 years.
• The Yankees farm system is not great but is is pretty decent so a trade between the teams just makes sense.
• Besides the Yankees; the Rays, Orioles, and Rangers are the other teams that have interest in Soriano.
• Marmol should be reporting to Spring Training by Monday.
• If Opening Day was today then DeJesus would start in CF, Soriano in LF, and Schierholtz/Hairston platoon in RF.
• Kyuji Fujikawa wants to make it tough on the Cubs about naming a closer.
• Junior Lake could make the team as a super utility infielder if he impresses this Spring.
• Brett Jackson swing has improved dramatically but the Cubs want to see the trend continue into ST games.

Until Next Time...

Cubs Hits: Earlier this Week

News has been slow so in turn the post have not been as frequent. But there is the latest-

• Lendy Castillo cleared waivers and is not being sent to Iowa.
• Cub killer Chris Carpenter is unlikely to pitch this year or maybe ever again.
• The talk about Bourn and the Cubs has gone quite especially with the Mets pushing for him. But talk about a 4/$40 for him I WANT the Cubs to get involved.
• MLB.com has put together their top 20 prospect list which is topped by Baez, Almora, Soler, Jackson, and Vizcaino. Find the rest of the list here.
• Carlos Marmol is expected to report to Spring Training with any issues.
• Sources say the Cubs would like to make a move or two during Spring Training and I am guess maybe Soriano and Garza?
• The Cubs do have interest in the Rays Dane De La Rosa who was DFA yesterday to make room for Luke Scott. Dane De La Rosa is 30 years old with only 12 innings pitched in the big leagues but his minor numbers are not bad. Found here.

Here is the latest from Levine-

• Marmol for Porcello has not been discussed. Just rumored but that could change when ST starts.
• Garza is ahead of schedule more than he was last year at this time.
• Campana is a good 25^th man on roster in the majors.
• If healthy Stewart will be the starter at 3^rd.
• The Cubs are not interested in putting Travis Wood in the pen but something has to give.
• Marmol will get traded by opening day because of the trade value he has.
• Scott Hairston could take grounders at 1^st during ST to back up Rizzo.
• The Cubs will look to get young pitching and some left-handed relief for Marmol.
• Cubs are not sure if they would give Mark Prior a deal but the door is not shut. Could be a minor league deal.
• Baker make take longer to be ready so there are 6 pitchers for 5 spots.
• Bruce thinks they overpaid for Edwin Jackson which is crazy talk.

Until Next Time…

Cubs Hit and Run: Soriano, Prospects, & More...

• The Cubs deal with Hairston looks better than it originally did (still not a big fan of the deal) with a 2 year deal worth $5M with a million in incentives.
• You can expect the Rangers to join the group of teams interested in Soriano if Nelson Cruz serves any suspension time due to being linked to PEDs through the Miami report that has Arod in a lot of trouble.
• The Cubs have 3 top 50 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com with Javier Baez landing at #16, Albert Almora at #39, and Jorge Soler at #42. This is a huge jump for the Cubs considering their farm system has jumped up into the top 10 in all of baseball. The future is exciting for the Cubs and their fans.
• There could be a ton of organizational movement for all three future stars next season according to scouts.
• Bleacher Nation has a great store of sabermetric’s star Tom Tango who now exclusively consults for the Cubs. Find the story here.

Until Next Time….